India's ethanol blending programme faces feedstock challenges as maize acreage in the top five producing states drops more than 13% year-on-year, with Karnataka recording the maximum decline of 34%, according to a report in The Hindu Business Line. The government's target of 20% ethanol blended with petrol (EBP) requires about 1,100 crore litres of ethanol. With an expected very low stock of sugar at the close of the season on September 30, the government may fall back on rice, potentially raising prices as demand has started moving northwards in some select non-Basmati varieties.
Maize acreage decline
As of July 24, the total maize area across the country was 77.79 lakh hectares (lh), down 9.7% from 86.15 lh a year ago. In the top producing states, the area slipped significantly:
| State | Kharif 2026 (lh) | Kharif 2025 (lh) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Karnataka | — | — | -34% |
| Maharashtra | 11.27 | — | -16% |
| Rajasthan | 9.08 | — | -3% |
| Uttar Pradesh | 4.43 | — | -37% |
| Madhya Pradesh | 25.61 | 23.67 | +8.2% |
(Individual 2025 figures for Karnataka, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh were not provided in the source.)
Madhya Pradesh was the only major state to post an increase in maize area, rising 8.2% to 25.61 lh. The overall decline in maize acreage is critical as India's ethanol capacity includes about 900 crore litres from the sugar sector and the remainder from grain-based units, with maize being a key grain feedstock.
Sugarcane and sugar stock uncertainty
Sugarcane sowing for the 2026-27 season is complete, with area reported at 57.58 lh, down slightly from 58.84 lh in 2025. Among top cane-growing states, Uttar Pradesh saw an increase to 28.97 lh from 28.61 lh, Maharashtra to 11.82 lh from 11.47 lh, and Karnataka to 6.61 lh from 6.08 lh. However, low sugar stocks at the season's end (September 30) could force the government to divert more cane to sugar rather than ethanol, increasing reliance on rice.
Paddy sowing trends
Paddy sowing data shows mixed trends across states. Top grower Uttar Pradesh reported a 4.2% increase to 57.8 lh, while Bihar surged 36.4% to 17.58 lh and Assam jumped 73% to 11.68 lh. However, Madhya Pradesh recorded a 29% drop to 19.54 lh, and Maharashtra fell 43% to 4.9 lh. Other key states with marginal declines include West Bengal (-0.9 lh), Haryana (-1.2 lh), Telangana (-0.5 lh), and Odisha (-1.6 lh). The gap in Chhattisgarh and Odisha (1-1.6 lh) is expected to recover with recent rains.
Ethanol feedstock outlook
C K Jain, President of the Grain Ethanol Manufacturers Association (GEMA), noted that India's diversified ethanol ecosystem, relying on multiple crops across seasons (kharif, rabi, summer), reduces dependence on any single crop. He highlighted the government's recent decision to reduce the broken-rice share in official stocks from 25% to 10%, which will increase broken-rice availability for industrial use, including ethanol, without affecting food security. "Fresh kharif crop arrivals are expected to further strengthen feedstock availability as the season progresses," Jain said, adding that India remains a net surplus maize producer, underpinning blending requirements.
The government has created nearly 2,000 crore litres of ethanol capacity, with about 900 crore litres from the sugar sector and the rest from grain-based units. To meet the 20% blending target, about 1,100 crore litres are needed. With maize area down and sugar stocks tight, rice—particularly broken rice—is emerging as a crucial feedstock, potentially supporting prices for select non-Basmati varieties.
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