Gold prices began the August 3, 2026 trading week on a positive note as easing geopolitical tensions and a softer US dollar improved sentiment toward bullion, according to Business Today. Gains, however, may remain capped ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, where interest rates are widely expected to hold steady.
Fed decision, Warsh statement in focus
Business Today reported that market participants will closely monitor Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s policy statement and press conference for fresh guidance on the inflation outlook and the future path of interest rates. Investors will also track upcoming US inflation and labour market data, which could influence expectations for future monetary policy. The direction of the US dollar, Treasury yields and crude oil prices is expected to remain the key driver for gold in the near term, while any shift in geopolitical developments could add to volatility.
US-Iran pause and the 5% crude slump
The temporary pause in hostilities between the United States and Iran — after both countries refrained from further military escalation over the weekend — reduced fears of immediate supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, Business Today said. The de-escalation triggered a sharp decline of more than 5% in crude oil prices, easing concerns over energy-driven inflation and reducing pressure on global central banks to maintain restrictive monetary policies. A softer US Dollar Index also improved the attractiveness of gold for overseas buyers, providing additional support to prices.
Trade tariffs keep caution intact
According to Business Today, investor caution persists as uncertainty surrounding global trade continues following the US decision to impose fresh tariffs of 10%–12.5% on imports from several trading partners. That uncertainty, combined with the Fed meeting, is keeping the broader trend cautious, with prices trading well below the major highs recorded earlier this year.
Gold prices are showing signs of stabilising after a prolonged phase of correction. — Manav Modi, Senior Analyst, Commodity Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd
Business Today quoted Manav Modi, Senior Analyst, Commodity Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, saying that gold prices are showing signs of stabilising after a prolonged phase of correction.
Technical levels: Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci
Gold has rebounded from recent lows and moved back above the 20-day average, indicating that buying interest is gradually returning, according to Business Today. From a Bollinger Bands perspective, the 20-day moving average (middle band) is placed at Rs 143,524, while the upper band stands at Rs 147,576 and the lower band at Rs 139,472.
| Indicator | Level (Rs) |
|---|---|
| 20-day moving average (middle Bollinger band) | 143,524 |
| Upper Bollinger band | 147,576 |
| Lower Bollinger band | 139,472 |
| Fibonacci 38.2% retracement | 147,700 |
| Fibonacci 50% retracement | 138,000 |
| Fibonacci 61.8% retracement | 128,300 |
The Fibonacci retracement drawn from the major swing low near Rs 97,000 to the all-time high around Rs 179,000 places the 23.6% retracement near Rs 159,700, 38.2% around Rs 147,700, 50% near Rs 138,000 and 61.8% near Rs 128,300. Gold is currently trading between the 50% and 38.2% retracement levels, with Rs 147,700 emerging as the first major upside hurdle.
Support, resistance and near-term outlook
Technically, gold appears to be forming a base after the recent decline, with buyers gradually regaining control, Business Today reported. Immediate support is placed at Rs 143,500, followed by Rs 139,500 and Rs 138,000. On the upside, Rs 147,600–147,700 remains the first resistance zone, followed by Rs 152,000 and Rs 159,700.
| Support (Rs) | Resistance (Rs) |
|---|---|
| 143,500 | 147,600–147,700 |
| 139,500 | 152,000 |
| 138,000 | 159,700 |
A sustained move above Rs 144,000 could strengthen the recovery and open the door toward the upper Bollinger Band near Rs 147,600, while a move below Rs 143,500 may weaken sentiment and expose prices toward Rs 139,500, according to Business Today. Holding above Rs 143,500 would keep the recovery intact, while a break below Rs 138,000 could signal a deeper correction. Overall, the outlook remains neutral range bound, with the Fed decision, the US dollar, Treasury yields and crude oil prices set to dictate the next directional move for gold.
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