Gold prices held firm above $4,200 per ounce on Friday, headed for their strongest weekly performance since January, as optimism over a potential diplomatic resolution in West Asia and cooling US rate-hike expectations continued to support precious metals ahead of a closely watched jobs report, according to The Hindu Business Line.
Price Action
Spot gold traded at $4,262.39 per ounce, up 0.60 per cent on the day, while MCX gold quoted around ₹1,31,850 per 10 grams, reported The Hindu Business Line. Silver rose 1.30 per cent to $62.20 per ounce. Gold had touched $4,267.64 earlier in the week, its highest level since June 18, after surging 4.18 per cent in a single session. The week's rally was fuelled by a combination of factors: a weakening US dollar, falling Treasury yields, and diplomatic signals around the Strait of Hormuz, the report said.
Geopolitical Drivers
US President Donald Trump told reporters he expects the conflict with Iran to end soon, while US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated a deal to reopen the strategic waterway could come as early as Friday, according to The Hindu Business Line. Qatar's mediators also reported progress. A framework proposal under discussion would reportedly see Iran, potentially through an arrangement involving Oman, exercise control over Strait of Hormuz shipping, with restrictions on US and Israeli vessels until compensation is paid. Easing geopolitical risk pulled oil inflation expectations lower, reducing pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten further, the report added.
Macro Backdrop and Jobs Data
Markets now assign roughly a 43 per cent to 57 per cent probability of a September rate hike, estimates varied across desks, down from around 63–67 per cent a week earlier, according to CME FedWatch data cited by The Hindu Business Line. A weak ADP jobs report for July, showing only 44,000 private-sector payroll additions — the softest reading since January — reinforced expectations of a cooling labour market and weighed on the dollar and bond yields.
All eyes are now on the US Non-Farm Payrolls report due Friday evening. Consensus forecasts point to a headline print of 80,000 jobs, an unemployment rate of 4.2 per cent, and average hourly earnings growth of 3.5 per cent year-on-year. Analysts cautioned that the data could introduce short-term volatility.
Renisha Chainani, Chief Research Officer at Augmont, noted that "...the underlying price action already tells the story," with $4,000 holding as firm support and buyers positioned for a move toward $4,600.
Justin Khoo, Senior Market Analyst at VT Markets, said the sustainability of the rally hinges on whether an Iran agreement is finalised, whether upcoming NFP data confirms further labour market weakness, and whether gold can maintain levels above the crucial $4,200 mark.
Demand Fundamentals
Demand fundamentals added to the bullish backdrop. Chinese gold-backed ETFs recorded 14 consecutive sessions of inflows, and China's gold consumption rose 1.23 per cent year-on-year to 511.41 metric tonnes in the first half of 2026, according to the China Gold Association, reported The Hindu Business Line. Central bank buying continued to provide a floor.
Technicals and Outlook
Technically, analysts flagged $4,500 as the next upside target for gold, The Hindu Business Line reported. For silver, a sustained break above $63 could open the way toward $70–71 per ounce. Below is a snapshot of key levels and indicators:
| Metric | Level / Figure |
|---|---|
| Spot gold (Friday) | $4,262.39/oz (+0.60%) |
| MCX gold | ₹1,31,850 per 10 grams |
| Silver | $62.20/oz (+1.30%) |
| Weekly high | $4,267.64 |
| September rate-hike odds | 43%–57%, down from 63%–67% |
| NFP consensus | 80,000 jobs, 4.2% unemployment |
| Gold upside targets | $4,500, then $4,600 |
Traders and procurement teams will watch the NFP release for near-term volatility, while the Strait of Hormuz negotiations remain the key geopolitical swing factor for precious metals and oil-linked inflation expectations. With the $4,000 support level holding and central bank buying ongoing, the market's focus shifts to whether gold can sustain the rally through the $4,500 resistance zone.
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