Gold held near a two-week high on Monday, supported by softer-than-expected US jobs data that eased concerns over an immediate Federal Reserve interest rate hike, according to The Times of India. Spot gold traded around $4,174.66 per ounce, while US gold futures for August delivery climbed to $4,186.80. Gains remained capped by a stronger US dollar, which makes gold more expensive for buyers using other currencies.
Weak US Jobs Data Supports Gold
The precious metal posted a gain of more than 2% last week, snapping a four-week losing streak as investors shifted towards safe-haven assets amid expectations of a less aggressive US monetary policy. June payroll growth came in weaker than expected, while employment figures for the previous two months were revised lower, according to the report. The CME FedWatch Tool now shows traders see around a 55% chance of a September rate hike, down from over 60% before the jobs report. Lower interest rates generally improve gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset.
Physical Demand Diverges Between India and China
Physical gold demand in India softened after prices rebounded from a three-month low, while buying interest in China improved slightly, The Times of India reported. Meanwhile, JPMorgan lowered its outlook for gold demand this year, saying purchases from key sectors may be weaker than previously expected. The bank now forecasts gold prices to average $4,300 per ounce in the third quarter and $4,500 per ounce in the fourth quarter, suggesting further gains could be gradual despite recent market recovery.
Silver Extends Gains, Other Metals Positive
Silver continued its upward momentum on Monday, extending gains for a fifth consecutive session. Spot silver edged higher to $62.47 per ounce after earlier touching its strongest level since June 23. The white metal has outperformed gold in recent sessions, supported by improving investor sentiment and stronger industrial demand expectations. Platinum and palladium also remained in positive territory, continuing their recent recovery in global bullion markets, according to The Times of India.
Key Prices at a Glance
| Metal | Spot/Contract | Price | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | Spot (XAU/USD) | $4,174.66/oz | Near two-week high |
| Gold | Futures (Aug) | $4,186.80/oz | Climbing |
| Silver | Spot (XAG/USD) | $62.47/oz | 5th session gains |
Outlook: Fed Minutes and Economic Data in Focus
The release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve's June 16-17 policy meeting is expected to be the key event for bullion markets this week. Investors will examine discussions from the first meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh for signals on inflation and future interest rate decisions. Analysts say the outcome could influence the direction of gold prices, alongside upcoming US economic data including services PMI, trade figures, and weekly jobless claims.
For commodity traders and analysts, the combination of softer labour market data and a cautious Fed could keep gold supported in the near term, though a firmer dollar and JPMorgan’s reduced demand outlook may limit upside. The Fed minutes and subsequent economic releases will provide further direction for precious metals prices.
