Gold and silver prices are expected to remain under pressure in the coming week as investors assess the impact of renewed tensions between the US and Iran, movements in crude oil prices and a series of key global economic data that could influence the US Federal Reserve's interest rate path, analysts told PTI.
Bullion Under Pressure
"For gold and silver prices, the momentum still remains down and corrective," PTI quoted Pranav Mer, Vice President, EBG - Commodity & Currency Research, JM Financial Services Ltd, as noting. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures for August delivery declined Rs 3,041, or 2.06%, during the week to settle at Rs 1.44 lakh per 10 grams. Silver futures for September delivery plunged Rs 15,269, or 6.4%, to Rs 2.23 lakh per kg.
"Gold remained under significant selling pressure last week, ending lower by 2%, extending its week-on-week decline as persistent US dollar strength continued to weigh on precious metals," said Jateen Trivedi, Vice President (Research Analyst), Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities. He said crude oil prices corrected sharply by nearly 10%, easing inflation concerns and reducing gold's appeal as an inflation hedge, while investors continued to prefer the US dollar over bullion.
Geopolitical and Macro Drivers
In overseas markets, Comex gold futures declined $149.6, or 3.5%, during the week to close at $4,096.3 per ounce, while silver tumbled $7.13, or 10.7%, to $59.67 per ounce in New York.
Mer said gold recovered modestly on Friday after bargain buying emerged following US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, which showed inflation rose at a slower pace than the previous month. Continued gold purchases by China's central bank following fresh US-Iran strikes, along with President Donald Trump's threat to impose 100% tariffs on the European Union, also supported prices, he added. However, higher US Treasury yields capped gains, while silver remained under pressure due to weakness in industrial metals, a stronger dollar and subdued demand.
Market participants will closely track manufacturing and services PMI data from major economies, Eurozone inflation numbers, and the US non-farm payrolls and unemployment figures for fresh cues on monetary policy. Geopolitical developments will also remain in focus after US-Iran negotiations stalled following a sharp escalation in military conflict, analysts said.
Price Outlook
| Metal | Exchange | Contract | Weekly Change | Settlement Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | MCX | August | -Rs 3,041 (-2.06%) | Rs 1.44 lakh/10g |
| Silver | MCX | September | -Rs 15,269 (-6.4%) | Rs 2.23 lakh/kg |
| Gold | Comex | Spot/Month | -$149.6 (-3.5%) | $4,096.3/oz |
| Silver | Comex | Spot/Month | -$7.13 (-10.7%) | $59.67/oz |
Analysts said the direction of bullion prices in the coming week will largely depend on upcoming US macroeconomic data, comments from Federal Reserve officials and movements in the US dollar. The interplay between dollar strength, geopolitical risk, and inflation expectations will determine whether the current corrective phase persists or gives way to a recovery. For commodity traders and procurement teams, the week ahead offers multiple data points that could trigger significant volatility across precious metals markets.
Sources:
