Gold and silver prices are expected to remain under pressure this week as investors assess the impact of escalating US-Iran tensions, elevated crude oil prices, and a series of key global economic data releases, according to market experts cited by Business Today.
Price Movements and Key Drivers
On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures for August delivery fell Rs 2,572, or nearly 2%, to settle at Rs 1.40 lakh per 10 grams last week. Silver futures for September delivery dropped Rs 6,261, or 2.8%, to close at Rs 2.16 lakh per kilogram. In international markets, Comex gold futures declined $95, or 2.3%, to settle at $4,018.8 per ounce, while silver tumbled nearly $4, or 6.4%, to $56.32 per ounce during the week.
| Commodity | Exchange | Contract | Weekly Change | Settlement Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | MCX | August 2025 | ↓ Rs 2,572 ( 2%) | Rs 1,40,000 per 10 g |
| Silver | MCX | September 2025 | ↓ Rs 6,261 ( 2.8%) | Rs 2,16,000 per kg |
| Gold | Comex | August 2025 | ↓ $95 ( 2.3%) | $4,018.8 per oz |
| Silver | Comex | September 2025 | ↓ $4 ( 6.4%) | $56.32 per oz |
According to Pranav Mer, Senior Vice President, EBG - Commodity & Currency Research at JM Financial Services Ltd, "Momentum in gold remains corrective as investors look ahead to the Federal Reserve's meeting towards month-end. However, focus will remain on developments between the US and Iran." He added that both precious metals recovered on Friday but still ended the week lower.
Supply and Demand Dynamics
The primary driver of pressure on gold and silver is the escalating US-Iran conflict. The US military carried out fresh airstrikes on Iran on Sunday following attacks on American-linked installations in Jordan, further escalating tensions in the region. Crude oil prices surged more than 14% on fears of supply disruptions, which weighed on bullion as rising energy costs raise inflation expectations and support a stronger dollar. Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency at LKP Securities, explained: "Gold extended its corrective phase last week as a stronger US dollar, firm crude oil prices, and expectations of prolonged higher interest rates continued to weigh on bullion." He noted that every recovery in gold prices was met with fresh selling, indicating that investors preferred booking profits instead of creating new long positions. The rupee's mild correction offered little support as the stronger dollar continued to dominate sentiment.
Outlook and Key Data Releases
Traders will closely track developments in the US-Iran conflict, US weekly jobless claims, flash Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data, as well as monetary policy decisions and economic indicators from Europe and China for fresh cues. Mer said investors will also keep an eye on PMI data from the Eurozone and the UK, along with economic developments in China, for further direction in precious metals. Meanwhile, domestic equity markets ended last week on a strong note, with the BSE Sensex gaining 965 points on Friday and the Nifty climbing to the 24,330 level, supported by buying in Reliance Industries, banking and IT stocks. A stronger rupee against the US dollar also improved market sentiment, although traders said the broader market remained under pressure due to weak global cues. The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting later this month will be a key event for gold and silver, as interest rate expectations directly impact non-yielding assets.
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