Gold and silver prices edged lower on Monday, pressured by fresh geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and sustained expectations of further interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve, according to a report in The Times of India. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures for August delivery declined by ₹617, or 0.4%, to ₹1,43,545 per 10 grams, while contracts for October and December slipped by up to 0.4%. Silver futures for September delivery fell ₹518 to ₹2,22,954 per kilogram, with July and December contracts losing up to 0.3%.
Price Movements Across Exchanges
| Instrument | Contract | Previous Close | Current Price | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCX Gold (₹/10g) | Aug 2026 | ₹1,44,162 | ₹1,43,545 | -₹617 | -0.4% |
| MCX Silver (₹/kg) | Sep 2026 | ₹2,23,472 | ₹2,22,954 | -₹518 | -0.2% |
| COMEX Gold ($/oz) | Aug 2026 | $4,096.38 | $4,076.40 | -$19.98 | -0.5% |
| Spot Gold ($/oz) | Spot | $4,093.00 | $4,061.35 | -$31.65 | -0.7% |
Spot gold fell 0.7% to $4,061.35 per ounce as of 0242 GMT, while US gold futures for August delivery were down 0.5% at $4,076.40 per ounce. The metal was on course to register its fourth straight monthly decline, with losses of about 10.4%, the report added.
Geopolitical and Monetary Drivers
Fresh military strikes between the United States and Iran over the weekend heightened concerns over the stability of the Iran-US ceasefire, reported The Times of India. Iran launched missiles and drones targeting US military facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain early on Sunday, shortly after US President Donald Trump warned of severe consequences if Iran failed to honour the agreement. Despite the escalation, Tehran and Washington later agreed to suspend the latest hostilities in the Gulf and resume negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz dispute, according to an Axios report cited by the source.
Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade, commented: "US and Iran were at it again over the weekend, with fresh military strikes reported from both parties, which casts further doubt over how long oil can stay at these subdued levels and therefore over the broader inflation and interest rate outlook." Higher crude oil prices can add to inflationary pressures and increase the likelihood of further rate hikes, which diminish gold's attractiveness as it yields no interest.
Manav Modi, Commodities Analyst at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, noted that gold prices traded lower as investors remained cautious amid renewed geopolitical tensions and expectations that the US Federal Reserve could maintain a restrictive monetary policy for longer. "Safe-haven demand received limited support after fresh exchanges between the US and Iran over the weekend strained the fragile ceasefire, while a stronger US dollar and elevated Treasury yields continue to weigh on bullion."
Inflation and Data Calendar
The report highlighted that the US core PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, remained in line with expectations but climbed to its highest annual level since October 2023, reinforcing the view that inflation remains persistent. Markets continue to price in the possibility of another Fed rate hike by the end of 2026.
Investors will now closely monitor this week’s US consumer confidence, ADP employment, jobless claims, and nonfarm payrolls data for further clarity on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook and the direction of the US dollar, which Modi said "are likely to remain the key drivers for gold prices."
Outlook
With geopolitical uncertainty persisting and inflationary pressures keeping the Fed on a hawkish path, gold and silver are likely to continue facing headwinds. The trajectory of the US dollar and upcoming labour market data will be critical in determining near-term price direction. For commodity traders, the interplay between safe-haven demand and rising interest rates remains the central tension to watch.
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