Motilal Oswal Wealth Management Research Desk has identified Gokaldas Exports and Reliance Industries (RIL) as the top 'buy' recommendations for the week starting June 29, 2026. The recommendations come amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty following recent military exchanges between the US and Iran, which are expected to steer market sentiment alongside key domestic macroeconomic releases.
Stock Recommendations and Targets
| Stock Name | CMP (Rs) | Target (Rs) | Upside (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gokaldas Exports | 859 | 1,110 | 29% |
| Reliance Industries | 1,318 | 1,655 | 26% |
Gokaldas Exports operates across India, Kenya, and Ethiopia with a garment manufacturing capacity of approximately 92 million pieces annually—52 million in India and 40 million through its subsidiary Atraco in East Africa. The company also holds a 19% stake in BTPL, strengthening fabric sourcing and vertical integration. Its long-term partnerships with major global brands—Gap Inc., Carhartt, Columbia Sportswear, JCPenney, and Abercrombie & Fitch—contribute roughly 65–70% of revenue, leaving room for deeper penetration.
The company's India garment business is projected to grow at a 10% CAGR during FY26–FY28 with operating margins of 12–13%. Atraco is expected to deliver a 26% CAGR over the same period, driven by higher utilisation, while BTPL is projected to generate ₹6.6 billion in revenue by FY28. Overall, Gokaldas Exports is expected to achieve FY26–FY28 CAGRs of 18% in revenue, 33% in EBITDA, and 73% in PAT, fuelled by expansion in Indian operations and strong support from its African manufacturing platform.
Reliance Industries is entering its next growth phase, driven by continued momentum across digital (telecom), retail, and new energy businesses. The telecom segment is seen as the largest growth driver, supported by tariff hikes, market share gains, and expansion of home broadband and enterprise services. Retail is projected to benefit from store additions, improved productivity, and scaling of hyperlocal offerings. Investments in artificial intelligence and clean energy are expected to strengthen long-term prospects. While the O2C business may see only modest recovery amid industry headwinds, consolidated EBITDA and profit are estimated to grow at around 9–10% CAGR over FY26–FY28. With capital expenditure expected to moderate, Reliance is well positioned to generate strong free cash flows and gradually reduce net debt.
Market Drivers and Macroeconomic Factors
Market experts have flagged several factors that will influence sentiment. Ajit Mishra, Senior Vice President, Research, Religare Broking Ltd, stated: "Market participants will closely monitor Industrial Production (IIP) data, the final HSBC Manufacturing, Services and Composite PMI readings, and the foreign exchange reserves data for fresh insights into the health of the domestic economy." He added that movements in crude oil prices and geopolitical developments in West Asia would continue to play a significant role in influencing global market sentiment.
The automobile sector will also remain in focus as investors track monthly auto sales figures scheduled for release on July 1. Additionally, foreign institutional investor (FII) activity and the progress of the southwest monsoon remain important market drivers.
"The week ahead is likely to be shaped by developments on the geopolitical front, with investors closely monitoring tensions in the Middle East following the latest military exchanges involving US and Iranian forces. While broader diplomatic efforts remain in place, the recent flare-up has reminded markets that geopolitical risks remain elevated. Any signs of renewed negotiations or de-escalation could help sustain the recent improvement in risk sentiment, while a further deterioration in relations may pressure risk assets."
Implications for Trade Finance and Corporate Treasuries
For CFOs and treasury professionals, the stock recommendations carry direct trade finance implications. Gokaldas Exports is heavily export-oriented, with manufacturing facilities spanning India, Kenya, and Ethiopia. The company's revenue growth is tied to global demand and currency movements—a sharp appreciation of the rupee could pressure margins, while a weaker rupee benefits export competitiveness. Companies with similar cross-border operations should monitor the US-Iran situation and crude oil price volatility, as rising energy costs increase input costs and shipping expenses. The availability of trade credit and hedging instruments becomes critical in such an environment.
Reliance Industries, with its diversified exposure to telecom, retail, and new energy, offers a proxy for domestic consumption and infrastructure spend. Its high capital expenditure phase is now moderating, improving free cash flow and reducing net debt—a positive signal for creditworthiness and trade finance lines. The O2C segment, while facing headwinds, remains sensitive to crude oil price swings, which directly impact working capital requirements. For supply-chain financing partners, Reliance's strong cash generation reduces counterparty risk.
Investors exposed to trade-affected sectors should watch for the IIP, PMI, and forex reserves data releases this week. A slowdown in manufacturing PMI could signal weaker export demand, while rising forex reserves provide a buffer for currency stability. The geopolitical tone in the Middle East will remain a key variable for trade finance costs and risk premiums in emerging markets.
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