Analysts have raised expectations for trucking carriers heading into the second-quarter earnings season, according to a report from FreightWaves. While the industry is still in the early stages of an upcycle, tighter capacity has produced better pricing, and higher rates across leaner cost structures are expected to generate more pronounced earnings growth moving forward.
Analyst Expectations for Q2
Richa Harnain, Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB) analyst, is “forecasting mainly beats” across her transportation coverage, with less-than-truckload (LTL) carriers leading the charge, according to FreightWaves. She expects median earnings-per-share (EPS) growth of 15% year-over-year for the second quarter and 21% for the third quarter. That would mark a meaningful improvement from the 3% increase recorded in the first quarter and the 7% decline in the fourth quarter of the previous year.
Harnain raised numbers for both the truckload (TL) and LTL carriers she follows. Her LTL forecasts increased roughly 8% on average and sit above consensus expectations. “We expect less-than-truckload (LTL) operators to lead the way, with our official earnings forecasts for the group 5% above consensus on average,” Harnain said, as quoted by FreightWaves. “Even that may prove conservative, given how these names have historically performed in the early stages of cyclical upturns.”
Truckload and LTL Market Dynamics
LTL demand is starting to reflect six consecutive months of positive manufacturing data, according to FreightWaves. Intraquarter updates from public carriers showed tonnage turned positive for the group in May on a two-year-stacked comp, following an extended downturn. Tightness across the TL market and heavier shipments from the industrial complex are shaping LTL demand.
Large national carriers continue to garner mid-single-digit contractual rate increases despite a glut of excess door capacity, the report noted. General rate increases are occurring at an accelerated pace, and LTL fuel surcharge programs become more profitable as fuel prices increase. Higher pricing and cost takeouts, including AI-led optimization initiatives, should allow carriers to restore margins.
Valuation Concerns and Stock Performance
Harnain noted that the “sharp stock outperformance” — some trucking stocks are up 50% year-to-date — has stretched valuation multiples compared to historical levels. However, she believes improving industry fundamentals and carriers’ ability to generate significant cash flows to fund dividends and stock buybacks warrant ownership, according to FreightWaves.
Ravi Shanker, Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) analyst, also flagged valuation as a concern in his second-quarter preview. “We believe stocks have priced in the easy early-cycle gains, with record valuations increasing the risk of greater volatility ahead, making us more selective,” Shanker said this week in a note to clients, per FreightWaves.
Shanker raised EPS estimates by 5% on average for the transportation companies he follows, but downgraded his industry view to “in-line” from “attractive.” Still, he expects the space to witness “the biggest upcycle ever” in the coming quarters. “We are more convinced than ever on the strength of the upcycle, though the debate now moves on to how high the record upcycle will peak and how structural the gains are,” Shanker said, as reported by FreightWaves.
Shanker downgraded Old Dominion Freight Line (NASDAQ: ODFL) to “equal-weight” and both J.B. Hunt Transport Services (NASDAQ: JBHT) and Landstar System (NASDAQ: LSTR) to “underweight.” All three stocks are up over 40% year-to-date. He continues to favor the TLs, select LTLs and the Canadian railroads.
Key Analyst Estimates and Changes
| Metric | Deutsche Bank (Harnain) | Morgan Stanley (Shanker) |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 median EPS growth (YoY) | 15% | Not specified |
| Q3 median EPS growth (YoY) | 21% | Not specified |
| LTL forecast increase | ~8% | Not specified |
| LTL earnings vs consensus | 5% above | Not specified |
| EPS estimate increase | Not specified | 5% average |
| Industry view | Not changed | Downgraded to in-line |
| Notable downgrades | None | Old Dominion, J.B. Hunt, Landstar |
The second-quarter earnings season begins on Wednesday, July 11, 2026, when J.B. Hunt reports results after the market closes, according to FreightWaves.
Implications for Shippers and Operators
With tighter capacity and rising rates, shippers should anticipate higher freight costs in both TL and LTL segments. The analysts' upbeat forecasts suggest continued pricing power for carriers. Logistics managers should prepare for potentially tighter capacity and plan for rate increases, especially in LTL where demand is improving. The accelerated pace of general rate increases and more profitable fuel surcharge programs mean that contract negotiations may favor carriers. Shippers may want to lock in rates where possible and explore multi-year agreements to hedge against further increases.
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