Topic
el nino
Finance Parametric climate insurance can safeguard India's ₹52 lakh crore agriculture economy in El Niño year
India's agriculture is increasingly exposed to structural climate risk, with 2026 predicted to be an El Niño year and seasonal rainfall already 13 per cent below normal. The Hindu Business Line reports that parametric climate insurance — with localised triggers, fast payouts and clear thresholds — can safeguard the ₹52 lakh crore agriculture economy. The article urges expansion of PMFBY and links insurance with adaptation.
Commodities Global Wheat Output May Drop 23 Million Tonnes Next Season on Iran War, El Nino
Global wheat production is projected to decline by 23 million tonnes in 2026-27 as El Niño and the Iran conflict curb acreage and raise fertiliser costs, according to The Hindu BusinessLine. IGC pegs output at 821 mt versus 844 mt this season, with ending stocks falling to 279 mt. CBOT wheat futures trade near $6.54 per bushel as analysts see a price floor from supply risks.
Commodities Indian rice prices rise on El Nino factor but remain most competitive on f.o.b basis
Indian non-basmati rice prices have risen by over $18 per tonne in recent weeks due to El Nino concerns, but remain the most competitive on a free-on-board (f.o.b.) basis. The monsoon deficit and domestic price increases support prices, while carryover inventories prevent a return to historical peaks. BMI raised its price forecast, and India is expected to retain a 42% global market share.
Commodities NOAA Predicts 97% Chance Strong El Niño Will Persist Through March 2027
The US Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of NOAA has released an ENSO update forecasting a 97% chance that the current strong El Niño will continue into early spring 2027. The report details ocean temperature anomalies, atmospheric circulation shifts, and probability breakdowns, critical for agricultural and energy commodity traders.
Commodities El Niño Warning: Why India Must Regenerate Its Agriculture Now
El Niño, caused by warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, weakens the Indian monsoon, leading to below-normal rainfall and dry spells. Indian agriculture has lost resilience due to synthetic inputs, monocropping, and soil degradation. Regenerative agriculture—restoring soil health, biodiversity, water management, and community institutions—is key to climate-proofing farms.
Commodities El Niño Disrupts Pacific Fisheries, Canceling Peru Anchovy Season and Boosting Tuna Catches
The 2026 'super' El Niño is already affecting Pacific fisheries dramatically. Peru has effectively canceled its anchovy fishing season due to warm waters driving fish deeper, while Southern California sees record tuna catches. Seafood prices are rising in local markets, with Peruvian jack mackerel and corvina prices doubling.
Commodities Coffee prices tumble after record rally as El Niño fears and ICE margin hike fuel volatility
Coffee prices on the ICE exchange tumbled on Friday, with arabica down as much as 8%, after a record rally earlier in the week. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center forecast an 81% chance of a very strong El Niño, while ICE raised margin requirements, reducing liquidity and increasing volatility. Cocoa futures also plunged 10% but remained on track for strong weekly gains.
Business FMCG Q1 Demand Stable Amid Price Hikes; Companies Warn El Nino May Hit Rural Consumption
Demand for soaps, shampoos, and packaged food remained stable in the June quarter despite price hikes, according to quarterly updates from major FMCG companies. However, companies flagged the risk of El Nino conditions on monsoon rains, which could dampen rural consumption. Firms like Dabur reported double-digit growth, while Godrej Consumer Products (GCPL) expects margin pressure due to cost pressures.
Business India's Economy Passed the Iran War Test, But El Niño Threatens Recovery
India's economy has emerged resilient after the US-Iran conflict, with Q1 FY2026-27 high-frequency indicators like GST collections (up 13.9% to Rs 1.95 lakh crore), vehicle sales (up 22% to 2.56 million units), and industrial production (up 5.1%) flashing green. However, a poor monsoon due to El Niño threatens food inflation and could dampen the recovery.
Commodities El Nino Weakens India Hydropower to Steepest Drop Since Feb 2024, Strains Grid
India's hydropower generation fell more than 20% in June, the steepest year-on-year drop since February 2024, as El Nino conditions caused a 38% rainfall deficit. Reservoir levels are critically low, forcing greater reliance on coal-fired power. The weak monsoon also hurt kharif crop sowing, with oilseeds acreage down 39% and cotton down 23%.
Commodities Clouded under El Nino skies: India monsoon deficit, El Nino intensity raise crop risk for commodities
The 2026 South-West monsoon in India has opened with a 40% deficient rainfall in June, while El Nino conditions intensify with SST anomaly reaching 1.7°C. The Indian government has launched an emergency plan to protect crops in 315 districts. The Indian Ocean Dipole is swinging negative, adding to concerns for agriculture and commodity markets.
Finance Agri Loans Face El Nino Risk but Credit Growth to Stay Healthy: Yes Securities Report
A report by Yes Securities indicates that while El Nino conditions could affect agricultural loans, the overall banking sector is expected to remain stable with healthy credit growth of around 17% and stable credit costs in FY27. Net interest income growth for coverage banks is projected to recover sharply to 16.1% in FY27 from 5.3% in FY26.
Commodities India Identifies 77 Paddy and 65 Maize Districts Prone to 10% Yield Loss from El Nino
India's agricultural research body ICAR has identified 77 paddy and 65 maize-growing districts that are prone to at least 10% yield loss during El Nino years, based on historical analysis of 2002, 2004, and 2009 droughts. The government is using this vulnerability map to prepare contingency measures, while the current monsoon season has seen a 42% rainfall deficit so far.
Commodities El Nino Threatens India's Sugarcane Production, Weakening Monsoon Adds Risk
A developing El Nino weather pattern could weaken India's monsoon and weigh on sugarcane production. Industry experts warn output could drop to 390 million tonnes if July-August rainfall disappoints, tightening sugar supplies.
Commodities El Nino and Weak Monsoon Pose Greater Threat to India Than US-Iran Conflict
India's weak monsoon, driven by El Nino, presents a more significant economic threat than the recent US-Iran conflict. Cumulative rainfall is 42% below normal, reservoir levels have dropped to 27.7% of capacity, and risks to inflation and rural incomes are mounting. Historical parallels with 2019 and 2023 offer some hope but uncertainty remains.
Commodities India likely won't export sugar for years as El Nino, ethanol squeeze supply
India, once the world's second-largest sugar exporter, is expected to have little surplus for export for at least three more seasons as El Nino weather conditions threaten cane production and rising ethanol demand squeezes supply. The twin pressures are poised to keep millions of tons of sugar off the world market, tightening supplies for importers across Asia, Africa and West Asia and supporting benchmark prices in London and New York.
Business NSE Flags Monsoon and El Niño Risks as India's 2026 Economy Faces Critical Challenges
The National Stock Exchange (NSE) warns that monsoon performance and El Niño are key risks for India's 2026 economy, with the IMD forecasting rainfall at just 90% of the long-period average. Simultaneously, India's equity investor base has expanded to 13.1 crore, with younger and more diverse participation, though trading activity remains heavily concentrated among large investors.
Commodities Gujarat Expands Narmada Water Coverage and Prepares Crop Contingency Plans Amid El Nino Concerns
Gujarat is expanding its Narmada water supply network to fill over 300 lakes and has prepared crop contingency plans amid El Nino concerns. The state government extended the lake-filling radius from 3 km to 7 km, prioritised SAUNI Yojana reservoirs, and developed alternative cropping strategies. Officials assure adequate seed, fertiliser, and fodder reserves.
Commodities India's Foodgrain Reserves Hit Record 122 mt as El Nino Looms Over 2026 Kharif Crop
India's Central Pool foodgrain reserves hit a record 122.64 million tonnes as of June 1, 2026, sufficient to sustain welfare programmes for over two years. This buffer comes as El Nino threatens the 2026 kharif crop, with the government targeting 176.16 mt of foodgrain production despite a below-normal monsoon forecast.
Commodities India's Record Rice and Wheat Stocks Bolster Exports Amid El Niño Risks
India's government rice and wheat stocks have reached record and five-year highs respectively, providing a strong buffer against potential El Nino-related monsoon disruptions. Traders say the reserves support continued exports, while FAO warns of rainfed crop stress.
Commodities El Nino to Severely Impact 9-10 Indian States; Chouhan Directs District-Level Kharif Contingency Plans
Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan on Tuesday directed coordinated meetings with district officials in 9-10 states where El Nino impact is expected to be relatively severe during the Kharif season. The government is preparing contingency plans including water conservation, intercropping, and alternative crops, with emphasis on boosting cotton and pulses output.
Commodities FM Sitharaman Assures No Foodgrain Shortage Despite El Nino Impact on Monsoon
Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman assured that India has adequate buffer stock of foodgrains and there will be no shortage despite the impact of El Nino conditions. Speaking at the Mindmine Summit in New Delhi, she stated that the Southwest Monsoon rainfall is expected to be below normal, but sufficient fertilizer is available for the Kharif season, with Rabi supply commencing from November.
Commodities El Nino May Weaken India's Monsoon, Threaten Rice and Maize Output, FAO Warns
The FAO has warned that the newly begun El Nino phase may weaken India's summer monsoon, putting rainfed crops like rice and maize under stress during the kharif season. Historical analysis shows that during the 2015-16 El Nino, India's maize output fell by 4% and rice dropped by 1%, while Southeast Asia lost about 15 million tonnes of rice. The agency also flagged that disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are raising energy and fertiliser costs as farmers prepare for sowing.
Commodities No fertiliser shortage for kharif, rabi crops; govt prepared for El Nino, says Shivraj Singh Chouhan
India's agriculture minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan has stated that there will be no fertiliser shortage for the upcoming kharif and rabi crop seasons. The government has also prepared for potential El Nino conditions. The announcement provides reassurance to the agricultural sector and related trade stakeholders.
Commodities El Niño Onset Confirmed: 63% Chance of Super Event by Winter
NOAA officially declared El Niño onset on June 11, 2026, with a 63% chance of reaching super El Niño strength by winter. The event threatens drought in key agricultural regions including Indonesia, the Sahel, and Southern Africa, while India's monsoon forecast has been lowered to 90% of normal.
Commodities India's Monsoon Boosted by IoD Amid El Nino Concerns
India's monsoon season could see improved rainfall due to a potential positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IoD) event, despite the looming threat of El Nino. The Bureau of Meteorology reports sea surface temperatures have crossed the El Nino threshold, but a positive IoD could enhance monsoon rains.
Supply Chain India Activates Contingency Plans Amid El Nino Threat
India's agriculture ministry has directed states to implement district-level contingency plans in response to El Nino threats. This move aims to mitigate potential disruptions in the supply chain by ensuring timely advisories and resource availability.
Commodities El Nino Threatens Global Agriculture with Rising Temperatures
El Nino's potential emergence in 2026 poses significant risks to global agriculture due to rising temperatures and altered precipitation patterns. Commodity markets are bracing for potential disruptions in supply and demand dynamics.
Commodities El Nino Threatens India's Kharif Season Amid Price Concerns
India braces for potential El Nino impacts on the kharif season, with contingency plans in place to mitigate adverse effects. The government aims to ensure seed availability and explore crop diversification.
Commodities India Prepares for El Niño Impact on Kharif Season Amid Monsoon Concerns
India's Agriculture Minister announced contingency plans to mitigate El Niño's potential impact on the Kharif season. With monsoon rains predicted to be below normal, the government is ensuring seed availability for alternative cropping strategies.
Commodities Soybean Prices Surge Amid El Nino Concerns
Soybean prices on the CME have surged due to El Nino concerns impacting crop yields. Traders are closely monitoring weather forecasts as the USDA adjusts its projections.