Topic
supply
Brent crude remains above $90 per barrel as Hormuz operations remain disrupted
Brent crude held above $90 per barrel in early Thursday trade, up 0.41% to $92, while WTI rose 0.32% to $84.66, as the US-Iran war and Strait of Hormuz disruption kept the risk premium intact. Conflicting US and Iranian statements on the strait's status slowed shipping, while the UAE suspended financial transactions with Iran. Meanwhile, US crude inventories climbed 4.4 million barrels, topping expectations for a 600,000-barrel draw.
Commodities Global Palm Oil Prices Seen Surging on Narrow Production Surplus
Global palm oil prices are set to rise as the 2026-27 season production surplus narrows from 2025-26, with BMI lifting its 2026 CPO price forecast to MYR4,453/tonne. Indonesia's B50 biodiesel mandate and El Nino risks tighten export supply, while Rabobank sees elevated prices through 2031. Buyers face sourcing challenges and tighter fundamentals.
Sugar leaves bitter taste as retailers impose caps
Read the full story for in-depth analysis.
Diesel Prices Above $5.60 as Refining Crisis, Not Crude, Drives Market
On-road diesel prices hit the high $5.60s as crack spreads surged above $100 per barrel, far beyond the normal $15–$25 range, according to a FreightWaves interview with Aaron Decker, CEO of Multi-Service Fuel Card. Decker said the problem is refining capacity, not crude, with Ukrainian drone strikes and record-low distillate inventories tightening supply. He expects diesel to remain above $5 for the foreseeable future.
Used Truck Supply Falls Below COVID Floor, Driving Strong Pricing and Carrier Gains
Used sleeper truck inventory has fallen below its COVID-era floor, pushing prices sharply higher and enabling carriers to sell aging equipment at a gain, according to Daimler Trucks Remarketing President Chris Backeberg. Microprocessor shortages from 2021-2023 and carriers holding trucks longer tightened supply, while day cab demand accelerates with port and intermodal activity. Backeberg sees tight supply continuing for 12 to 18 months.
Wars and Export Curbs Now Hit More Than 43% of World's Oil Supply
Wars, attacks and export curbs now touch more than 43% of the world's oil supply, equal to about 45 million barrels a day of 2025 production, according to Reuters calculations based on IEA data. The Gulf disruption alone is estimated at 5–7 million barrels per day, while conflicts have cut global refining capacity by a tenth. With IEA emergency stockpile releases largely complete and inventories declining, crude and fuel markets face a thinning safety buffer.
India emerges as new ‘swing supplier’ of refined oil products as Middle East crisis reshapes
India is emerging as a global 'swing supplier' of refined oil products, with Singapore becoming its largest export destination at $4.3 billion. Refinery capacity expansion, discounted Russian crude and supply disruptions in Russia and the Middle East are driving the shift, according to Business-Today.
US-Iran War Oil Shock: How Long Can the World and India Absorb It?
The US-Iran war has caused one of the biggest oil supply disruptions in history, but crude prices have only spiked modestly so far, according to Business Today. The IEA released 400 million barrels from emergency reserves, while the EIA forecasts prices will stay elevated until early 2027. India and the global economy face an uncertain period if the conflict continues for another six months.
Commodities British Wool Prices Surge 70% as Global Demand Rises and Flocks Shrink
Wool prices have climbed more than 70% in a year, with clean shorn wool averaging £2.54/kg in the latest sale versus under £1.50 a year ago, according to BBC News. A smaller British flock, fewer sheep in New Zealand, and the clearance of Covid-era wool stockpiles are driving the rally, which pushed prices to a 10-year high. Farmers like Wyn Williams say the higher prices help cover shearing costs.
Commodities Lithium prices likely to head lower this half as supplies improve
Lithium carbonate prices hit a six-month low of 140,000 yuan ($20,770) per tonne before recovering $1,000, as supply resurgence in China and Australian restarts loom. BMI forecasts 2026 average at $20,100/tonne for carbonate, while AOCE sees spodumene at $2,240/tonne. Strong energy storage demand is expected to cushion any sharp fall.
Commodities Oil rises as Iran signals offensive stance, US rules out ceasefire extension
Oil prices climbed on Tuesday as Iran signalled a fully offensive military posture and the US ruled out extending a temporary ceasefire, heightening supply worries. Brent rose 0.3% to $91.14 a barrel while WTI gained 42 cents to $85.04, with Hormuz vessel transits falling to five on Saturday and none on Sunday.
Russia faces fresh fuel shortages as refinery attacks disrupt supplies
Fuel shortages have resurfaced in parts of Russia, with at least 10 regions tightening petrol sales restrictions after fresh drone attacks on refineries, according to Business Today. Petrol was unavailable at some Moscow filling stations, and wholesale gasoline sales on the St Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange fell 20% since the beginning of August.
Commodities India Caps Refiners' LPG Output at 63,810 TPD Until December on Supply Disruption
India's Central Government has set a maximum daily LPG production limit of 63,810 tonnes per day for all refiners, including joint ventures and private firms, until December 2026. The Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas issued the directive after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, marking the first bi-annual production cap. Reliance Industries received the largest allocation at 18,000 TPD.
US expected to become India's top LPG supplier with 55% import share: OPEC
OPEC's latest monthly report projects the US will emerge as India's largest LPG supplier, accounting for about 55% of imports, replacing the Middle East Gulf. The shift follows a 2025 sales agreement and is supported by record US propane and butane exports to India, while Indian imports from the Middle East have fallen sharply amid supply disruptions.
Commodities Domestic Refiners Told to Boost LPG Output as Hormuz Uncertainty Lingers
India has directed private and state-owned refiners to maximise LPG production as uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz threatens imports, with output already lifted to 54,000 tonnes a day from 36,000 tonnes pre-war. The government set a 63,810-tonne-a-day target, assigning Reliance Industries the largest quota at 18,000 tonnes a day, ahead of the September-November festival season.
Commodities Indian refiners snap up crude months ahead as wars upend supply
Indian state-owned refiners are securing spot crude cargoes for October and November delivery, far earlier than usual, as Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy assets and the Strait of Hormuz standoff disrupt supply, according to Bloomberg. HPCL bought about 4 million Middle Eastern barrels for October, while MRPL booked West African oil. US sanctions threats and India's festival season are tightening the demand picture.
Commodities Crude oil futures flat as US signals tougher economic pressure on Iran
Crude oil futures traded flat on Friday after the US signalled it could maintain a naval blockade of Iran indefinitely and intensify economic pressure. October Brent slipped 0.01% to $87.06, while September WTI rose 0.06% to $81.30, with MCX crude contracts trading lower. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said more announcements are coming next week.
Oil prices today: Crude edges higher as US-Iran tensions revive supply concerns
Oil prices edged higher on Friday as the US threatened to maintain a naval blockade of Iran indefinitely, reviving supply concerns. Brent rose 0.1% to $87.16 a barrel, while WTI gained to $81.29, although weaker demand forecasts and rising US inventories capped upside. OPEC and the IEA lowered demand growth forecasts this week, and US crude inventories posted their largest weekly rise in over 3.5 years.
Commodities India urea import prices fall 12% as global fertilizer supply tightness eases
India, one of the world's biggest urea importers, received offers 12% below its June purchase price, signaling easing global fertilizer supply. State-run Rashtriya Chemicals & Fertilizers Ltd. drew more than 3 million tonnes of offers for its west coast tender at $393.65–$435 a tonne. The drop extends a decline from April's $959-per-tonne peak.
Commodities El Nino Poses Threat to Agricultural Commodities from Rice to Coffee, Analysts Say
El Nino's onset is threatening agricultural commodities from rice to robusta coffee, with analysts at BMI, Rabobank and FAO AMIS flagging crop-specific risks. Rice faces the clearest exposure, corn is least affected, and Australia emerges as a key downside risk for grains.
Commodities IREF Partners with S&P Global Energy to Study El Nino Impact on Global Rice Market
The Indian Rice Exporters Federation (IREF) has partnered with S&P Global Energy to study El Nino's impact on the global rice market. Global rice production is projected to decline 9 million tonnes to 536.4 million tonnes in 2026-27, while import demand is set to rise nearly 4 million tonnes to 59.7 million tonnes. The assessment will be presented at the Bharat International Rice Conference in New Delhi from October 24.
Ethanol supplies cross 800 crore litres: Why India's next challenge is demand
India's cumulative ethanol supplies crossed 800 crore litres in ESY 2025-26, according to AIDA data. Grain-based feedstocks, led by maize and surplus FCI grains, now account for 76% of July supplies, while sugarcane-based ethanol's share slipped to 24%. AIDA says the next challenge is creating enough demand for expanded capacity through higher blending and flex-fuel vehicles.
Commodities Oil Rises on US-Iran Deal Doubts as Supply Concerns Intensify
Oil prices rose on Wednesday as doubts over a US-Iran peace deal and ship attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb stoked supply concerns, according to Reuters. Brent climbed 0.84% to $89.66 a barrel and WTI rose 0.87% to $83.92, despite API data showing a 9.1 million barrel build in US crude inventories. The EIA expects 600,000 bpd of Middle East supply disruptions to persist through 2027.
Commodities India's ethanol supplies cross 800-crore-litre mark, grain-based share rises to 76% in July: AIDA
India's cumulative ethanol supplies crossed the 800-crore-litre mark during Ethanol Supply Year 2025-26, with grain-based feedstocks accounting for around 76% of monthly supplies in July, according to AIDA. Maize and surplus FCI grains each contributed 30 crore litres, while sugarcane-based supplies slipped to 22 crore litres. AIDA's Bharati Balaji called for creating sufficient demand through higher blends, Flex-Fuel Vehicles and wider applications.
Commodities Oil Prices Rise Over 2% as US-Iran Peace Hopes Fade on Hormuz
Oil prices rose over 2% on Tuesday as hopes of a US-Iran peace deal weakened. Brent crude hit $89.806 per barrel, up 2.1%, while US crude stood at $84.386, up 2.3%, after President Trump said Washington would seek reparations from Tehran and asserted US Navy control over the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran had linked reparations to reopening the strait, lifting sanctions, and ending naval blockades.
West Asia War Fallout: India Oil Product Exports Find New Markets
The West Asia crisis has opened several new markets for India's oil product exports, with Italy and Spain leading growth and Singapore and Tanzania overtaking traditional destinations. Oil products now account for a much larger share of exports to countries such as Tanzania, Sri Lanka, Singapore, Spain and France, according to Business-Today. The Indian government also imposed a windfall tax on certain products to check outward movement since the war began.
Beijing’s Billion-Barrel Weapon: Why India Must Prepare for China-Driven Oil Prices
China has amassed up to 1.4 billion barrels of oil in strategic and enterprise-controlled inventories — more than three times the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve — giving Beijing price-making power as a global swing buyer. Business Today reports that India must prepare for China-driven crude price swings as Beijing’s opaque reserve policy becomes a core market variable.
Logistics AI Data-Centre Boom Sets Shipowners and Tech Giants Racing for Same Engines
HD Hyundai Heavy Industries' record $676m, 1,000 MW engine contract for US AI data centres shows how the AI boom is pulling marine engine capacity into land-based power, threatening delivery delays for shipowners. Engine makers from Wärtsilä to Rolls-Royce are expanding production, but pressures on dual-fuel main engines and generator sets persist, Splash247 reports.
Commodities Rice Prices Near 10-Month High as El Niño Fuels Supply Concerns
Indian rice export prices held near a 10-month high this week, supported by rising domestic paddy costs and El Niño supply concerns, while Thai prices hit a one-month peak. India's 5% broken parboiled rice was quoted at $358-$364 per ton, unchanged from last week. Vietnam's Food Association proposed floor prices for fragrant rice exports at $500 per ton FOB.
Commodities Crude Oil Futures Fall on Reports of Iran-Oman Deal for Hormuz Reopening
Crude oil futures fell Thursday after reports that Iran and Oman plan an agreement for the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent and WTI declined while MCX crude rose; ING strategists said US-Iran talks remain the real hinge point. The US EIA reported a 2.5-million-barrel weekly build in commercial crude inventories.
Commodities Record US Beef Prices Fail to Boost Rancher Profits as Cattle Supply Dwindles
US supermarket beef prices are 12% higher than a year ago, driven by the smallest cattle herd since 1951. But ranchers like Eric Gropper say record calf prices are offset by soaring input costs, and feedlots are also buying at all-time highs, according to BBC Business.
Commodities UK faces worst harvest on record as dry weather drives vegetable shrinkflation warnings
Britain's cereal and oilseed harvest is forecast to fall to 19.5 million tonnes, the worst since records began in 1984, according to the ECIU. A record-dry July and drought across England and Wales have farmers warning of smaller vegetables and higher prices.
Commodities Oil prices fall to three-week low on hopes Strait of Hormuz could reopen
Oil prices fell to a three-week low on Tuesday as US officials said talks with Iran on reopening the Strait of Hormuz had progressed, according to BBC Business. Brent crude dropped almost 5% to under $80 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate fell more than 5% to $76, with both contracts at their lowest since 13 July.
Commodities Rising cotton costs and shrinking supply strengthen the case for man-made fibres: Nuvama
India's cotton surplus is narrowing, with production down from 6.31 billion kg in CS21 to an estimated 4.95 billion kg in CS26 and Shankar-6 prices moderating to around ₹155/kg after peaking at ₹221/kg in CS23, according to Nuvama Institutional Equities. Imports have tripled while exports collapsed, and a temporary duty waiver — reinstated January 1, 2026 and waived again June 1–October 31, 2026 — has pushed domestic prices to global parity. Nuvama says the shrinking surplus strengthens the case for expanding man-made fibre capacity.
Oil Tumbles Over 6% as Trump's Iran Talks Revive Hopes of Easing Middle East Tensions
Oil prices tumbled more than 6% on Monday as US President Donald Trump said talks with Iran would be held, reviving hopes of easing Middle East tensions. Brent and WTI gave back part of last month's 20%+ rally, while OPEC+ agreed to raise output quotas by 188,000 bpd from September.
Global Wheat Output May Drop 23 Million Tonnes Next Season on Iran War, El Nino
Global wheat production is projected to decline by 23 million tonnes in 2026-27 as El Niño and the Iran conflict curb acreage and raise fertiliser costs, according to The Hindu BusinessLine. IGC pegs output at 821 mt versus 844 mt this season, with ending stocks falling to 279 mt. CBOT wheat futures trade near $6.54 per bushel as analysts see a price floor from supply risks.
Commodities Crude oil futures fall 3% to ₹7,811 per barrel as West Asia shipping improves
MCX crude oil futures fell 2.81% to ₹7,811 per barrel for August delivery on Friday, tracking weak global benchmarks as improved tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb eased geopolitical supply concerns. Prices remain pressured by lingering risks, including halted loadings at Kazakhstan's Black Sea terminal and the Houthi blockade threat.
Commodities Oil prices surge nearly 4% on West Asia tensions and lower US crude inventories
Oil prices surged nearly 4% on Wednesday after joint US-Saudi strikes in Iraq and interception of Iranian missiles, while US crude inventories fell by 3.3 million barrels. Brent rose to $87.39 and WTI to $82.31, with OPEC+ reportedly set to halt output increases. The geopolitical escalation dampens expectations for de-escalation in the Persian Gulf.
Commodities Indian Government Limits Sugar Dealers to 400 Tonnes Stock Until November to Curb Hoarding
The Indian government has ordered sugar dealers to hold a maximum stock of 400 tonnes until November 30, requiring liquidation of excess by August 1. The move aims to curb hoarding and speculative trading amid a recent 15% rise in ex-factory prices. The government also banned sugar exports until September 30, while industry bodies project adequate supply.
Commodities Indian Tobacco Board Slashes Crop Size by 43% as Glut Forces Farmers to Seek Alternative Crops
The Indian Tobacco Board has cut the FCV tobacco crop size for 2026-27 by 43% to 81 million kg for Andhra Pradesh and 44% to 51 million kg for Karnataka, responding to a market glut exacerbated by competition from Brazil and African countries. Farmers, while understanding the rationale, are scrambling for alternative crops and demanding action against unlicensed growers who distort prices.
Commodities Crude Oil Falls as US and Iran Halt Weekend Strikes, Easing Geopolitical Risk Premium
Crude oil futures fell sharply on Monday morning after the US and Iran halted strikes against each other over the weekend, with Brent dropping 4.23% and WTI falling 4.90%. The de-escalation marked the first tangible signal of reduced hostilities after 13 days of strikes, though analysts caution that recovery hinges on lasting peace and safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia's energy facilities continued, adding another layer of supply risk.
Oil Holds Above $100 as Red Sea Attacks and Kazakhstan Outage Tighten Supplies
Oil prices have staged a sharp comeback, with Brent crude holding above $100 a barrel after Iran-aligned Houthi rebels attacked Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea and a suspected Ukrainian drone strike forced the closure of Kazakhstan's main Black Sea export terminal. The twin disruptions have renewed fears over global energy supplies, reversing earlier hopes of easing Middle East tensions.
Commodities Indian rice export prices hit near 10-month high on tight paddy supplies and monsoon concerns
Indian rice export prices rose to a near 10-month high this week, driven by tight paddy supplies and concerns over the new-season crop after patchy monsoon rainfall, according to Reuters. The 5% broken parboiled variety was quoted at $356-$361 per ton, up from $352-$357 last week. Adverse weather also affected crops in Bangladesh, while Vietnam saw lower prices due to building supplies from the summer-autumn harvest.
Commodities India's Surging Refined Product Exports Ease Asia Fuel Crisis, Says Russell
India's exports of light and middle distillates are expected to reach 1.55 million barrels per day in July, the second-highest level in Kpler records since 2017, easing Asia's fuel crisis. The surge is driven by soaring product premiums after the breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire, with Brent crude rising 34% from its post-deal low. Other exporters like Oman and Taiwan are also boosting output, but Asia's imports remain 18% below pre-conflict levels, indicating continued tightness.
Commodities Lower area under arhar in India’s Karnataka unlikely to be offset elsewhere
India's kharif arhar (pigeon pea) sowing area fell 18% year-on-year as of July 17, driven by a 42% decline in Karnataka. While Uttar Pradesh, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh reported increases, experts said the overall area may still fall short of the government's 50 lakh hectare target needed for 4 million tonnes production in 2026.
Fresh Houthi Maritime Blockade Threatens Saudi Crude Exports via Red Sea Route
The Iran-backed Houthi movement in Yemen has announced a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia, threatening crude exports via the Red Sea. Brent crude edged higher amid the fresh geopolitical risk, with Saudi Arabia having rerouted exports through Yanbu port after Strait of Hormuz disruptions.
Commodities TNAU Forecasts Small Onion Prices at ₹30-35/kg for Upcoming Harvest Season
The Tamil Nadu Agricultural University's DEMIC has forecast farm-gate prices of ₹30-35 per kg for good-quality small onions during the upcoming harvest season. The forecast is based on 15 years of price data from the Dindigul market and a market survey. Production details, key growing districts, and robust export demand are also highlighted.
US fuel prices rise: Gasoline returns to $4 per gallon after Middle East flare-up
A report from Times of India indicates that US gasoline prices have risen to $4 per gallon after a Middle East flare-up. The headline highlights the renewed price level, though no further details on specific contracts or volumes were provided.
Commodities Sugar Price Surge Unjustified as Stocks Comfortable, Say ISMA and NFCSF After Government Meeting
India's two main sugar bodies, ISMA and NFCSF, have declared the recent surge in domestic sugar prices to ₹44-45 per kg as unjustified, citing comfortable stock levels and ample availability. After meeting with the government, the industry agreed to start crushing earlier in the upcoming 2026-27 season to further boost supplies and curb speculation.
Commodities Oil market absorbs war shock through buffers but stocks run thin: IMF blog warns
The global oil market weathered the biggest supply disruption in decades after the Strait of Hormuz was closed due to war in West Asia, according to an IMF blog. Prices stabilized in the $90-100 per barrel range as demand compression, non-Gulf production increases, and inventory drawdowns offset the loss of about 20 million barrels per day. However, by end-May over 1.1 billion barrels had not reached market, and the IMF warns that buffers are now thin, leaving the world more vulnerable to future shocks.
Commodities Wheat Production Likely Affected by Climate This Year, Experts Warn at Conclave
At the Wheat Products Promotion Society CEO Conclave in Varanasi, experts warned that El Nino could impact wheat production this year, with delayed kharif harvest and potential drought. Despite geopolitical tensions, global wheat markets remain well supplied, anchored by Black Sea region stocks, limiting price rises.
Crude Oil Futures Edge Lower Despite US Strikes on Iran; Supply Disruptions Loom
Crude oil futures traded marginally lower on Thursday despite US airstrikes on Iranian facilities. September Brent was at $84.70, down 0.29%, while WTI fell 0.19% to $79.45. US EIA data showed a 1.7-million-barrel draw in commercial crude inventories. Analysts from ING Think flagged risks of renewed supply disruptions amid depressed tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and the impending end of SPR releases.
Commodities El Niño Disrupts Pacific Fisheries, Canceling Peru Anchovy Season and Boosting Tuna Catches
The 2026 'super' El Niño is already affecting Pacific fisheries dramatically. Peru has effectively canceled its anchovy fishing season due to warm waters driving fish deeper, while Southern California sees record tuna catches. Seafood prices are rising in local markets, with Peruvian jack mackerel and corvina prices doubling.
Oil Prices Slip but Head for Weekly Gains as US-Iran Conflict Keeps Supply Fears Alive
Oil prices edged lower in early trade on Friday but remained on course for strong weekly gains as renewed military exchanges between the United States and Iran kept concerns over global crude supplies elevated. Brent crude was set to post a 6% weekly gain, while WTI was on track to rise 5%. The disruption to the Strait of Hormuz remains a key concern, though demand-side worries from inflation limited the upside.
Crude Chaos: Oil Near $80 a Barrel After Trump Declares US-Iran Ceasefire ‘Over’
Oil prices surged toward $80 a barrel after US President Donald Trump declared the US-Iran ceasefire 'over' and launched fresh strikes. Brent crude rose 1.31% to $79.04, extending a 5% rally. Maritime authorities raised the Strait of Hormuz threat level to 'severe' following tanker attacks, reigniting inflation fears.
Commodities Overseas Demand from CIS and West Asia Lifts Tea Prices at Kochi Auctions
Overseas demand, particularly from CIS and West Asia, has lifted tea prices at the Kochi auctions as the West Asian crisis eases. Orthodox grades saw a 92% sales out of 2,80,925 kg offered, while CTC dust was dearer by Rs1-2 with 89% sales. The trend is expected to continue, according to traders.
Commodities India boosts LPG production capacity to 54,000 metric tonnes per day, says Hardeep Puri
Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri announced at the Viksit Bharat Conclave 2026 that India successfully ensured uninterrupted LPG supply by boosting domestic production capacity from 35,000 to 54,000 metric tonnes per day, along with effective diplomacy to secure energy supplies. The minister also highlighted a significant natural gas discovery in the Andaman region and the 'Samudra Manthan' initiative for energy self-reliance.
Commodities Distilleries Supply 68% of Contracted 1,048 Crore Litres Ethanol in Eight Months
As of June 2026, Indian distilleries have supplied 717 crore litres of ethanol, fulfilling 68% of the 1,048 crore litres contracted by oil marketing companies for the Ethanol Supply Year 2025-26. Maize-based ethanol dominates at 36%, followed by FCI rice and sugarcane juice. Grain-based distilleries account for 67% of supplies, while sugar-based units have achieved 82% fulfilment of their contracts.
Commodities Crude Oil Surges Over 6% as Trump Declares Iran Ceasefire 'Over'
Oil prices surged more than 6% after US President Donald Trump declared the interim ceasefire with Iran 'over' following US strikes on Iran in response to attacks on three ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude rose 6.3% to $78.80 a barrel, and US benchmark crude jumped 6.4% to $75.00. The move raises uncertainties over inflation and coincides with concerns over AI stock valuations.
India Silver Import Curbs Create Shortages, Push Premiums to Six-Month High
India's import restrictions on silver have nearly halted overseas purchases, causing domestic shortages and pushing premiums to a six-month high of $6.5 per ounce. The government aims to ease pressure on foreign exchange reserves by curbing precious metals imports, but the market now faces supply tightness despite initial ETF sell-offs.