The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has raised its import projection for the 2025-26 season ending September to a record 60 lakh bales (of 170 kg each), an increase of 13 lakh bales from the earlier estimate of 47 lakh bales, according to the trade body's latest pressing estimate released on Wednesday. The upward revision reflects the consuming sector taking advantage of the 11 per cent duty exemption, leading to record overseas purchases. Imports for 2025-26 are expected to be higher by 19 lakh bales compared to the previous year.
Import and Export Estimate Revisions
The CAI reduced its export estimate for the 2025-26 season by 3 lakh bales to 15 lakh bales from the earlier projection of 18 lakh bales. Last year, cotton exports stood at 18 lakh bales. Till the end of June in the current season, about 11.25 lakh bales have been shipped. The following table summarises the key changes in CAI's estimates:
| Metric | Previous Estimate (lakh bales) | Revised Estimate (lakh bales) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Imports | 47 | 60 | +13 |
| Exports | 18 | 15 | -3 |
| Pressing | 334 | 337 | +3 |
| Consumption | 338 | 348 | +10 |
| Opening stock | 60.59 | 55.59 | -5 |
Supply and Consumption Dynamics
Based on the report of the Confederation of Indian Textile Industry (CITI), CAI raised India's total cotton consumption for 2025-26 by 10 lakh bales to 348 lakh bales from the earlier estimate of 338 lakh bales. Till June 30, consumption was estimated at 261 lakh bales.
The total cotton supply for the 2025-26 season is estimated at 452.59 lakh bales, compared with 393.59 lakh bales last year. This comprises an opening stock of 55.59 lakh bales, pressing of 337 lakh bales, and imports of 60 lakh bales. The opening stock was cut by 5 lakh bales following the decision to reconcile stock with a corresponding increase in consumption for the 2024-25 season.
Market Outlook and Key Statements
CAI President Vinay N Kotak and Chairman of the CAI Crop Committee Atul S Ganatra stated that till end-June, about 51 lakh bales are estimated to have arrived at Indian ports. Currently, cotton imports are duty-free for the June-October period. Ganatra said another 10-15 lakh bales of imports are expected by September-end, as mills are importing more and do not want to miss out on the 11 per cent duty-free advantage.
The sharp rise in imports and consumption, coupled with reduced exports, signals robust domestic demand from the textile industry. The data released on July 29, 2026, provides the latest snapshot of India's cotton balance sheet for the 2025-26 season.
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