India’s soyabean imports are expected to reach a record 9 lakh tonnes (lt) in the oil year 2025-26 (October-September), a sharp rise from just 0.02 lt in the previous oil year, according to the Soyabean Processors Association of India (SOPA). The demand-supply mismatch has driven the unprecedented import surge, with SOPA revising its earlier projection of 6 lt upward based on import trends.
Record Import Projections
Till May-end of the current oil year, India has already imported 6.3 lt of soyabean, with the bulk arriving in the past four months. SOPA now estimates total imports could touch 9 lt for the full year, surpassing the previous high of about 6 lt recorded a couple of years ago. “Soyabean imports will be at an all-time high this year and should help us make up for the shortfall in supplies,” said DN Pathak, Executive Director of SOPA.
| Metric | Current Estimate | Previous Year | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Soyabean imports (lt) | 9 | 0.02 | +44,900% |
| Soyabean crushing (lt) | 104 | 113.50 | -8.4% |
| Soyabean meal exports (lt) | 11 | 10 | +10% |
| Domestic production (lt) | 110.26 | 128.82 | -14.4% |
Imports are sourced primarily from least-developed countries in sub-Saharan Africa — Niger, Togo, and Nigeria — where non-GMO soyabean varieties are cultivated. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) also recently raised its import estimate for India from 5 lt to 7 lt for 2025-26, reflecting the worsening supply deficit.
Domestic Supply Crunch
India’s soyabean production for 2025-26 is estimated at 110.26 lt, about 14% lower than the previous year’s 128.82 lt, according to SOPA. The decline is attributed to a reduction in area and weather vagaries. Market arrivals till May-end fell 13% to 72.50 lt compared to 83.50 lt last year. Crushings during October-May dropped to 73 lt from 79 lt previously. Total crushing for the full year is projected lower at 104 lt versus 113.50 lt, leading to reduced soyameal production of 82.09 lt (down from 89.56 lt).
Rising Prices and Feed Sector Concerns
The supply shortfall has driven domestic soyabean meal prices up over 40% in recent weeks, reaching around ₹65-66 per kg. The Compound Livestock Feed Manufacturers Association (CLFMA) last week expressed concern that higher meal prices are raising feed production costs, impacting farmers across the animal protein value chain. The USDA noted that Indian soyameal prices surged to a nearly 60% premium compared to US-origin meal, driven by concerns over a weak monsoon affecting the upcoming kharif crop.
Feed sector offtake remains flat at 62 lt, while food sector consumption is stable at 8 lt for the year. SOPA has also revised soyameal export estimates upward from 10 lt to 11 lt, with DN Pathak stating, “We have also revised the Soybean meal exports upwards to 11 lakh tonnes from 10 lakh tonnes earlier.”
Outlook
With domestic production already impacted and monsoon uncertainties lingering, India’s reliance on imported soyabean is likely to persist. The USDA’s upward revision to 7 lt signals global market acknowledgment of India’s supply gap. However, the final import figure will depend on arrivals over the remaining months of the oil year. Market participants will closely watch crushing margins, feed demand, and global soyabean prices in the coming weeks.
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