India’s arabica coffee crop for the 2026-27 season is facing a dual threat from deficit monsoon rainfall and a flare-up of white stem borer (WSB) infestation, according to data from the Indian Meteorological Department and comments from planters’ associations. The four major coffee-producing districts — Kodagu, Chikmagalur, Hassan and Wayanad — recorded cumulative monsoon rainfall deficits ranging from 2 per cent to 61 per cent in the June 1–August 11 period, and together accounted for about 87 per cent of the 3.73 lakh tonnes of coffee produced in India during 2025-26.
Uneven monsoon across four key districts
As per Indian Meteorological Department data, Kodagu, the country’s largest coffee-producing district, received 1260.6 mm of cumulative rainfall against a normal of 1677.3 mm — a deficit of about 25 per cent since June 1. Chikmagalur saw a marginal shortfall of around 2 per cent, with 1071.2 mm against a normal of 1088.2 mm. The deficit was far steeper in Hassan, which received 173.7 mm against a normal of 445.7 mm (61 per cent below normal), while Wayanad recorded 955 mm against a normal of 1904.2 mm, a 50 per cent deficit.
| District | Actual rainfall (mm) | Normal rainfall (mm) | Deficit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kodagu | 1260.6 | 1677.3 | ~25% |
| Chikmagalur | 1071.2 | 1088.2 | ~2% |
| Hassan | 173.7 | 445.7 | 61% |
| Wayanad | 955.0 | 1904.2 | 50% |
The dry spells have triggered an infestation of white stem borer, a dreaded pest that affects the arabica variety, and growers say this could influence output for the crop year starting in October.
Growers flag pest flare-up and arabica output risk
M Salman Baseer, Chairman of Karnataka Planters Association, said the monsoon was uneven this year, with several regions receiving deficit rains. “While the robusta crop looks okay, there could be a drop in the production of arabicas,” he said. Baseer added that the flare-up in white stem borer has been a concern for arabica growers this year, with the infestation more pronounced compared to the past couple of years because of the dry weather pattern.
Nanda Belliappa, Chairman of Coorg Planters Association, said about 70 per cent of the places have not received the required rainfall. “The concern for arabica growers is the flare up in white stem borer this year due to the dry spells. Some growers have started removing the WSB affected plants. Arabica will be definitely affected but we will have to wait and watch,” he said.
“After a very slow start from June till mid-July, the monsoon has picked up in several coffee-growing regions from July 15 onwards. While it has been uneven across the coffee regions, so far, there’s still another 2-3 weeks of monsoon to go.” — Sahadev Balakrishna, UPASI Coffee Committee
Sahadev Balakrishna of the UPASI Coffee Committee said robusta seems to be a higher crop so far, and a clearer picture would emerge once the monsoon is over. He also cautioned that a weak monsoon would have a negative impact on macro environment factors like rivers, water bodies and the availability of water resources for the coming season.
Coffee Board projections for 2026-27
In its post-blossom estimates for 2026-27, the Coffee Board projected output of 4.04 lakh tonnes, comprising 1.2 lakh tonnes of arabica and 2.84 lakh tonnes of robusta. This compares with the final estimate for 2025-26 of 3.73 lakh tonnes, split between 1.11 lakh tonnes of arabica and 2.62 lakh tonnes of robusta.
The next 2-3 weeks will be decisive, as growers and industry bodies watch whether the monsoon makes up the deficit and whether WSB infestation spreads further across arabica areas. Growers have already started removing affected plants in some places, and any sustained dry spell would tighten arabica availability for the 2026-27 marketing year.
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