The Coffee Board of India has released its first production forecast for the 2026-27 crop year, projecting coffee output at 4.04 lakh tonnes — approximately 8% higher than the final estimate of 3.73 lakh tonnes for 2025-26, according to the Board's post-blossom estimate published by The Hindu Business Line. The estimate is based on flowering triggered by pre-monsoon showers and initial crop setting. Historically, the final output tends to be lower than the initial estimate.
Production Projections for 2026-27
Arabica production is forecast at 1.2 lakh tonnes, up from the final 2025-26 estimate of 1.11 lakh tonnes, while robusta output is pegged at 2.84 lakh tonnes compared with 2.62 lakh tonnes last year, the Coffee Board reported. Robusta accounts for more than 75% of India's total coffee production.
Regional Breakdown
Karnataka, the country's largest coffee-producing state, is projected to harvest 2.79 lakh tonnes, up from 2.56 lakh tonnes, with higher production expected across Kodagu, Chikkamagaluru, and Hassan districts. State-level arabica output is estimated at 84,015 tonnes (79,145 tonnes) and robusta at 1.95 lakh tonnes (1.77 lakh tonnes).
Key district-level projections (in tonnes) are summarised below:
| District | Arabica (2026-27) | Arabica (2025-26) | Robusta (2026-27) | Robusta (2025-26) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kodagu | 20,720 | 20,060 | 1,10,000 | 1,01,000 |
| Chikkamagaluru | 43,295 | 41,185 | 58,860 | 53,575 |
| Hassan | 20,000 | 17,900 | 25,700 | 22,850 |
In Kerala, total coffee output is estimated at 84,570 tonnes, up from 80,350 tonnes. Wayanad, the state's largest coffee-growing district, is projected to produce 72,450 tonnes of robusta (68,800 tonnes).
Tamil Nadu's production is expected to remain largely stable at 19,720 tonnes, marginally lower than 19,975 tonnes.
Among non-traditional growing regions, Andhra Pradesh is projected to produce 19,650 tonnes (15,290 tonnes), Odisha at 550 tonnes (470 tonnes), and the North-Eastern region at 235 tonnes (220 tonnes).
Weather and Contrasting Outlook
The key coffee-growing regions of Karnataka and Kerala received uneven pre-monsoon showers this year, resulting in scattered blossom, the Coffee Board noted. Timely rainfall during March and April is critical for triggering flowering in coffee plants.
The Coffee Board's estimate contrasts with the outlook from the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) in Mumbai, which recently projected India’s 2026-27 coffee production at 3.68 lakh tonnes — about 4% lower than the previous year due to weather-related yield losses. FAS Mumbai estimates arabica output at 93,600 tonnes and robusta at 2.74 lakh tonnes. It expects arabica to decline because of below-normal monsoon rainfall and unusually high temperatures affecting flowering and fruit set, while robusta is likely to remain relatively resilient to weather variability.
The USDA FAS Mumbai projects India’s 2026-27 coffee production at 3.68 lakh tonnes, about 4 per cent lower than the previous year.
Implications for the Market
The divergence between the Coffee Board's optimistic post-blossom estimate and the USDA's more cautious projection underscores the weather-related risks facing India's coffee crop. Traders and procurement teams should closely monitor monsoon progression and subsequent crop-setting reports, as the final output could deviate from initial forecasts. The robusta-heavy production mix, with over 75% share, may offer some resilience, but arabica growers in Karnataka face headwinds from erratic rainfall and heat stress.
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