India's edible oil import bill is estimated to rise 9% to ₹1.75 lakh crore during the current marketing year ending October 2026, driven by higher volumes and a weaker rupee, according to the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA). In a letter to members, SEA President Sanjeev Asthana expressed concern over the rising import bill, calling for an oilseed revolution.
Import Bill Surge
The country's edible oil import bill stood at ₹1.61 lakh crore last year and is now projected to cross ₹1.75 lakh crore this year, Asthana noted. In the first eight months of the current oil year (November 2025-June 2026), the import bill reached ₹1.19 lakh crore, compared to ₹99,000 crore in the same period last year. "This is not merely another statistic; it represents a substantial outflow of precious foreign exchange that could otherwise be channelled into strengthening India's agricultural infrastructure," he said.
Import volumes have also increased. SEA reported that India's edible oil imports rose 7% to 103.88 lakh tonnes during November 2025-June 2026, from 97.29 lakh tonnes in the corresponding period of the previous oil year.
Supply-Side Pressures
Domestic supply concerns are mounting due to weather uncertainties. Asthana pointed to below-normal monsoon forecasts and delayed sowing in several oilseed-growing regions. As of July 17, kharif oilseed sowing area stood at 147 lakh hectares, substantially lower than 155.7 lakh hectares during the same period last year. "Particular concern is the possibility of weaker rainfall during the critical August-September flowering period, which could adversely affect oilseed yields and further deplete reservoir levels, with implications for the forthcoming Rabi season as well," Asthana said.
However, he noted that sowing delays do not necessarily translate into lower production. "Historically, acreage has caught up once rainfall improves. The coming weeks will therefore be decisive in determining whether Kharif 2026 regains momentum, or whether India faces yet another year of heightened import dependence."
Global and Demand Factors
On the global front, Indonesia's expanding biodiesel programme is diverting larger quantities of palm oil from food to fuel, tightening global supplies. Geopolitical uncertainties and higher freight and insurance costs continue to keep international edible oil prices volatile. "The net effect is that India may be compelled to import more, and pay considerably more for every tonne," Asthana said.
| Metric | 2024-25 (Full Year) | 2025-26 (Projected/Partial) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Import bill (₹ lakh crore) | 1.61 | 1.75 (projected) | +9% |
| Import volume (Nov-Jun, lakh tonnes) | 97.29 | 103.88 | +7% |
| Kharif oilseed area (as of Jul 17, lakh ha) | 155.7 | 147 | -5.6% |
Outlook
SEA President Sanjeev Asthana stressed the need to increase domestic oilseed production to reduce import dependence. The coming weeks will be critical as the monsoon progresses. Any shortfall in domestic production could further inflate the import bill, while global palm oil supply constraints and a weaker rupee add to cost pressures. Traders and procurement teams will watch for USDA and FAO reports, as well as updates on Indonesia's biodiesel mandate and India's kharif sowing progress.
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