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forecast
Commodities India monsoon deficit narrows to 13% after July surplus; IMD predicts below-normal August rain
India's monsoon rainfall deficit narrowed to 13% in June–July after July posted a 1% surplus, but IMD has forecast below-normal August rain. Regional discrepancies are wide, with the south peninsula and east/north-east recording large shortfalls.
Logistics GTT Projects 550 New LNG Carriers Needed by 2035, Signaling Fleet Expansion
GTT expects around 550 LNG carriers to be ordered between 2026 and 2035, adding to the current record orderbook of 338 ships. The forecast is driven by 37m tonnes per annum of new liquefaction capacity reaching FID this year and a projected 5% annual LNG demand growth, primarily from Asia. Shipyard capacity is expanding to meet demand, with Korean and Chinese yards expected to exceed 100 annual slots by 2028.
Commodities Monsoon Revival Defies July Fade-Out Forecast as Deep Depression Strengthens in Bay of Bengal
The Indian monsoon is staging a strong revival in late July, defying forecasts of a fade-out, as a deep depression in the Bay of Bengal drives widespread rainfall. National rainfall deficit improved to -15%, with Central India near normal at -3%. However, the resurgence has caused severe floods in Assam, with 68 casualties and over 6.5 lakh affected, alongside agricultural damage.
Trade Assocham: India's exports to UK may reach USD 115 billion by 2030 under trade pact
Assocham has projected that the India-UK trade agreement, effective July 15, 2026, could more than double India's exports to the UK from USD 58 billion in FY2025-26 to USD 115 billion by 2030, while creating 7-10 lakh jobs. The chamber stressed the need for sustained competitiveness in quality, certification, and rules of origin compliance.
Commodities India's Edible Oil Import Bill Estimated to Rise 9% to ₹1.75 Lakh Crore in 2025-26 Market Year: SEA
India's edible oil import bill is projected to rise 9% to ₹1.75 lakh crore in the 2025-26 marketing year (November-October) due to higher import volumes and rupee depreciation, according to the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA). Import volumes rose 7% in the first eight months, while weaker monsoon and delayed kharif sowing raise domestic production concerns.
Commodities NOAA Predicts 97% Chance Strong El Niño Will Persist Through March 2027
The US Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of NOAA has released an ENSO update forecasting a 97% chance that the current strong El Niño will continue into early spring 2027. The report details ocean temperature anomalies, atmospheric circulation shifts, and probability breakdowns, critical for agricultural and energy commodity traders.
Business India's current account deficit likely to widen to 1.5% of GDP in FY27 as higher oil prices weigh: Report
According to a Crisil report, India's current account deficit is expected to widen to 1.5% of GDP in FY27 from 0.6% in FY26, driven by higher crude oil and commodity prices. The forecast follows official trade data showing the merchandise trade deficit widening to $30.4 billion in June. Crude oil prices are expected to average $82-87 per barrel this fiscal.
Commodities India's Coffee Output for 2026-27 Projected Up 8% at 4.04 Lakh Tonnes, Coffee Board Says
The Coffee Board of India's post-blossom estimate projects coffee output for the 2026-27 crop year at 4.04 lakh tonnes, an 8% increase from the final 2025-26 estimate of 3.73 lakh tonnes. Karnataka leads production with higher arabica and robusta output, while uneven pre-monsoon showers and USDA FAS's lower projection add uncertainty.
Commodities India’s natural gas demand set to fall 8% in 2026 as West Asia conflict disrupts LNG imports
India’s natural gas demand is projected to decline roughly 8% year-on-year in 2026, driven by the West Asia conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure that disrupted LNG imports. The fertilizer sector leads the drop, while residential and commercial use rises. Domestic production continues to contract, pushing LNG imports up slightly despite supply disruptions.
Commodities Reservoirs, sowing trend, next ‘low’ may disprove worst monsoon fears in India
Despite uneven June rainfall, India's reservoir storage in 166 major reservoirs stands close to normal at 47.72 billion cubic metres (bcm) as of July 2, against the normal of 48.40 bcm. A fresh low-pressure area is likely to form over the north Bay of Bengal within 5-6 days, potentially reviving widespread rainfall. Former IMD chief KJ Ramesh stresses that assessing monsoon health via reservoir storage and sowing acreages offers a truer picture than rainfall departures alone.
Business Despite West Asia War, Real Estate Likely to See 10% Growth This Fiscal, Says CREDAI President
Shekhar G Patel, President of CREDAI National, stated that Indian real estate could see 10% growth this fiscal despite the West Asia war and potential price increases. Construction costs have surged 15-25% due to raw material price hikes, with new project prices possibly rising up to 10%. The housing market has shown 10-12% CAGR since 2021.
Trade India-Latin America Trade to Reach USD 100 Billion by 2030 from USD 50 Billion: Uruguay Ambassador
Uruguay Ambassador Alberto Antonio Guani Amarilla announced that trade between India and Latin America is expected to double to USD 100 billion by 2030 from the current USD 50 billion. Speaking at the LAC FIRST conference in New Delhi, he highlighted the need to expand the India-Mercosur Preferential Trade Agreement from 450 to 3,000 products as a step toward a free trade agreement, with key sectors including minerals, agro-industries, and pharmaceuticals.
Business EY Forecasts India GDP Growth of 6.6-6.8% in FY27 on Resilient Domestic Demand, Lower Energy Prices
EY's Economy Watch expects India's real GDP to grow 6.6-6.8% in FY27, driven by resilient domestic demand, lower global energy prices, and normalisation of Strait of Hormuz shipments. CPI inflation is projected at 4.5% and the current account deficit at 1.5% of GDP.
Business Goldman Sachs and EY Raise India Growth Forecasts on Lower Crude Oil Prices
Goldman Sachs and EY revised India's growth forecasts upward on Friday, citing easing West Asia tensions and lower crude oil prices. Goldman Sachs raised its CY2026 real GDP growth forecast by 0.3 percentage points to 6.8%, while EY pegged 2026-27 growth at 6.6-6.8%. Both firms also lowered inflation and fiscal deficit estimates.
Business Tenney Group Forecasts Record-Breaking Transportation M&A in 2027
M&A advisory firm Tenney Group predicts a highly active 2026 and record-breaking transportation and logistics M&A in 2027, reversing a three-year lull. The firm's mid-year report notes increased buyer urgency and institutional capital inflows, despite headwinds like tepid freight demand and elevated interest rates. Cross-border operators tied to nearshoring are becoming premium targets, and the Supreme Court's broker liability ruling is reshaping deal due diligence.
Business US Tops Global Economy But Debt Burden Poses Biggest Risk, Deutsche Bank Warns
A Deutsche Bank Research Institute report warns that the US's growing debt burden—with federal deficits at 5-6% of GDP and debt exceeding 100% of GDP—poses the biggest risk to its long-term economic leadership, potentially eroding the dollar's reserve status. Despite structural strengths in capital markets, technology, and AI, the report highlights imminent fiscal challenges including exhaustion of Social Security trust fund by 2032.
Commodities Tamil Nadu Agricultural University Forecasts Maize Prices at ₹2,400 per Quintal
Farmgate prices of good-quality maize are likely to trade at ₹2,200-2,400 per quintal during the October-November harvest season, according to the Tamil Nadu Agricultural University (TNAU). The forecast, based on 15-year APMC data, aligns with the MSP of ₹2,410. Below-normal monsoon due to El Nino may disrupt production in key states, while demand from animal feed, ethanol, and bioplastics supports prices.
Commodities IEA forecasts global natural gas demand to fall 0.5% in 2026 as higher prices curb consumption
The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts global natural gas demand to fall 0.5% in 2026, driven by higher prices curbing consumption from power generators and industry. The U.S.-Iran conflict has sharply reduced LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing up benchmark prices in Europe and Asia. Asia gas demand fell 1% year-on-year in the first half of 2026 as fuel switching to coal accelerated.
Commodities Global oil output to return to pre-Iran war level by year's end, US EIA says
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that global oil output and trade flows should rebound fully by the end of 2026 from disruptions caused by the Iran war. The agency cut its Brent crude price forecast to $74/barrel for Q3, down from $85 in June and a previous estimate of $101. The easing of the Strait of Hormuz blockade after a preliminary U.S.-Iran deal has enabled increased vessel movement, and the EIA expects most shut-in Middle East production to return by Q1 2027, lowering fuel prices.
Logistics DHL Group Raises Earnings Forecast After Pre-Tax Income Jumps 29% in Q2
DHL Group raised its full-year earnings outlook after reporting strong preliminary Q2 results, including 10% revenue growth and a 29% jump in pre-tax income. The Express division nearly doubled its EBIT to $1.4B, benefiting from air cargo capacity constraints related to the Iran war, while Forwarding EBIT rose 24.4%. DHL now expects 2026 EBIT to exceed €6.5B, up from €6.2B guidance.
Crude Oil May Drop to $60 as Hormuz Shock Fades, Citi Forecasts
Citi analysts predict Brent crude could fall to $60 per barrel by year-end as the Hormuz Strait disruption fades and fundamentals reassert. The bank notes shipping flows normalizing, weak Chinese demand, and lower-than-expected inventory draws. Other banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley also see oversupply risks.
Commodities Gold prices under pressure as rate hike fears and US-Iran tensions boost dollar, oil yields
Gold prices are under pressure with spot gold at $4024 on June 29, down 1.5% amid rate hike fears and a stronger dollar, exacerbated by US-Iran geopolitical tensions that pushed oil and yields higher. ETF holdings hit a nine-month low, while CFTC data shows speculative bullish positioning rose. According to Praveen Singh of Mirae Asset ShareKhan, the near-term outlook remains bearish.
Manufacturing India Electric Passenger Vehicle Sales May Cross 3 Lakh Units in 2026
India's electric passenger vehicle (EPV) sales are expected to exceed 3 lakh units in 2026 for the first time, compared to under 2 lakh in 2025, according to Frost & Sullivan and Crisil. Growth is supported by doubling of model options, improved battery range, and rising fuel prices widening EV total cost of ownership advantage. Vahan data shows registrations nearing 1.5 lakh so far in 2026.
Commodities Monsoon May Deliver at Healthy Clip Till Mid-July, Falter Thereafter, IMD and ECMWF Forecasts Show
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) expects widespread monsoon rainfall across India through early July, with a cyclonic circulation likely over the north Bay of Bengal. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) projects vigorous monsoon activity in central and western regions until mid-July, after which deficits may emerge over the western half of the country.
Business India's Real GDP Growth Likely at 6.6% in FY27 Amid Energy Stress, Weaker Monsoon: S&P Report
S&P Global Ratings projects India's real GDP growth at 6.6% for FY27, driven by resilient global activity and AI investment but tempered by energy stress, a weak monsoon, and rising inflation. Consumer inflation is expected to hit 5.1%, with a policy rate hike anticipated in the second half of the fiscal year.
Logistics Freight Fuel Forecast: Is Your Budget Ready for $70 Brent? Analysts Warn of Looming Crisis
Despite diesel prices falling to $4.83 per gallon, a freight fuel analyst warns that oil markets are masking a structural supply problem. Bank of America estimates over 1 billion barrels of supply lost since March, sustained by inventory draws. A tank-bottoms crisis could emerge within 4-6 weeks, and shippers should budget for Brent crude near $70/barrel in 2026.
Technology Infosys chairman Nandan Nilekani forecasts $300-400 billion AI services opportunity by 2030
Infosys chairman Nandan Nilekani told shareholders that the company sees a $300-$400 billion opportunity in AI-led services by 2030. CEO Salil Parekh noted that AI services account for 5.5% of revenue, an annualised run rate of about $1 billion. Infosys is collaborating with 90% of its top 200 clients on AI initiatives.
MINI Bay System May Open Two-Week Rain Window Across Central India
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) indicates favourable conditions for monsoon progression into Central India around next Tuesday, driven by a cyclonic circulation over the Bay of Bengal. Model consensus suggests a two-week period of enhanced rainfall, with detailed regional forecasts for the coming days.
Commodities Crisil Forecasts Brent Crude at $90-95/barrel, Warns of India CAD Risk
Crisil Intelligence projects Brent crude averaging $90-95 per barrel this fiscal, a 32% increase from fiscal 2026, driving India's current account deficit to 2.2% of GDP from 0.6%. The rating agency noted that despite potential resolution of West Asia tensions, elevated energy prices will persist due to supply normalisation delays.
Commodities Diesel Plunges as IEA Report Offers Bullish and Bearish Signals Following U.S.-Iran Peace Deal
The International Energy Agency's monthly report provides data supporting both bullish and bearish oil price views following the U.S.-Iran peace deal. Diesel prices have fallen sharply, with DOE/EIA retail diesel at $5.059/gallon, down 15.1 cents. ULSD on CME settled at $3.1702/g, down 44.24 cents in four days. IEA estimates global supply will average 102.4 million b/d in 2026, a drop of 3.9 million b/d from 2025, while demand is set to decline 1.1 million b/d. May production plunged to 94.5 million b/d, down 13.6 million b/d from pre-war levels.
Commodities Gold price prediction today: Central bank buying, US-Iran peace deal support gold above $4,300/oz
Gold prices have rebounded strongly above $4,300/oz after testing the $4,000/oz support zone, supported by the interim US-Iran peace agreement, lower Treasury yields, and ongoing central bank purchases. The market narrative has shifted from geopolitics to inflation and interest rates ahead of the June 16-17 Federal Reserve meeting. Silver also recovered sharply and is expected to see a sixth consecutive supply deficit year.
Commodities Gold price prediction today: Will gold prices rise substantially from current levels? Check June 16, 2026 outlook
Spot gold rallied 3.24% to $4,356 per ounce on Monday, extending its winning streak to three days, driven by a preliminary US-Iran agreement to end the Middle East conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil prices slumped 5% to $82, weighing on the dollar and yields, while the US Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting remains a key near-term risk. The MoU is set to be signed on June 19 in Geneva.
Commodities Gold, Silver Prices Face Bearish Pressure on MCX; Resistance Levels in Focus
MCX gold and silver prices are trading with a bearish bias on June 11, 2026, according to Abhilash Koikkara of Nuvama Professional Clients Group. Gold has a downside target of 140,000 with resistance at 152,000, while silver targets 225,000 with resistance at 240,000. Traders are advised to adopt a sell-on-rise approach amid weak market sentiment.
Business World Bank Cuts Global Growth Forecast to 2.5% for 2026; India Retains Fastest-Growing Major Economy at 6.6%
The World Bank projects global growth of 2.5% in 2026, down from 2.9% in 2025, citing the Middle East conflict and rising energy prices. India's GDP is forecast to grow 6.6% in fiscal year 2026-27, making it the world's fastest-growing major economy, though higher energy costs and fiscal pressures pose risks.
Commodities Gold Price Volatile Below Key Support; US Jobs Data and Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on Sentiment
Gold prices remain under pressure, failing to sustain above ₹156,000–158,000 resistance. A stronger-than-expected US jobs report boosted the dollar and Treasury yields, while Hezbollah's rejection of a ceasefire with Israel added geopolitical uncertainty. Technically, gold is approaching a key support cluster between ₹153,500 and ₹154,500; a break could lead to further downside.
Commodities El Niño Onset Confirmed: 63% Chance of Super Event by Winter
NOAA officially declared El Niño onset on June 11, 2026, with a 63% chance of reaching super El Niño strength by winter. The event threatens drought in key agricultural regions including Indonesia, the Sahel, and Southern Africa, while India's monsoon forecast has been lowered to 90% of normal.
Commodities IMD Update: Heavy Rain to Revive Goa, Karnataka, Mumbai & Gujarat on June 22-23
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts a revival of heavy rainfall along the west coast around June 22-23, based on guidance from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The fresh spell is expected to start over Coastal Karnataka and Goa before spreading north to Konkan, Mumbai, and south Gujarat. Meanwhile, widespread rainfall continues over eastern India due to a trough extending from Punjab to West Bengal.
Logistics Port of Los Angeles $3.4B Budget Forecasts 7% Container Volume Dip
The Port of Los Angeles approved a $3.4 billion budget for FY2026-2027, forecasting a 7% drop in container volumes to 9.3 million TEU. China's share of imports through the port fell to about 40% in 2026 from 61% in 2020, driven by ongoing trade war and tariff uncertainty. The budget boosts capital improvements by 31%, including rail and terminal projects.
Business India GDP Growth to Slow to 6.6% in FY27 on Weaker Consumption and Investments:
BMI forecasts India's economic growth will moderate to 6.6% in fiscal year 2026/27, a slowdown from the 7.7% recorded in FY26. The research firm attributes the deceleration to three factors: fading consumption boost from GST reforms, elevated inflation driven by the Strait of Hormuz disruption, and slowing investment growth. The rupee is expected to average 95.1/USD, supporting export competitiveness.
Business India's Economic Growth to Lead the World for Two Decades: Goyal
India is poised to remain the world's fastest-growing economy for the next two decades, according to Piyush Goyal. The country's strategic trade agreements and manufacturing capabilities are key drivers of this growth.
Business OECD Forecasts India's Growth Amid Global Economic Challenges
The OECD forecasts India to achieve a growth rate of 6.3% in FY27 and 6.4% in FY28, despite global economic challenges. Fiscal and monetary policies are expected to adapt to inflationary pressures and energy price shocks.
Commodities Delayed Monsoon Affects Indian Agriculture Markets
The delayed monsoon in India, influenced by El Niño, is impacting agricultural commodity markets. Key regions like Gujarat and Rajasthan face below-normal rainfall, affecting crop forecasts.
Business India Eyes 7% Growth by FY28 Amid Economic Challenges
India's Chief Economic Adviser, V Anantha Nageswaran, projects a return to 7% GDP growth by FY28, contingent on macroeconomic stability and improved external conditions. This optimistic outlook follows the Reserve Bank of India's revised forecast of 6.6% growth for FY27.
Commodities India's South-West Monsoon Begins Over Kerala
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Commodities India Lowers Foodgrain Output Target Amid Monsoon Concerns
India has reduced its foodgrain output target for the 2026-27 crop year to 373.93 million tonnes, citing concerns over a below-normal monsoon forecast. The decision reflects potential impacts from El Nino, affecting rice and maize production.
Trade Kerala Monsoon Onset Delayed, Rainfall 55% Below Normal
The India Meteorological Department forecasts a delayed monsoon onset over Kerala on June 4, with initial rainfall 55% below normal. This weather pattern could impact agricultural trade and import/export activities in India.
Commodities Below-Normal Monsoon Forecast Threatens Indian Agriculture
The India Meteorological Department forecasts below-normal monsoon rainfall and above-normal heatwaves in June, impacting key agricultural regions. This development could significantly affect commodity markets, particularly for crops like rice and wheat.
Business RBI MPC to Adjust Inflation and Growth Forecasts Amid Rupee Slide
The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee is expected to adjust its inflation and growth forecasts in response to ongoing geopolitical tensions and a depreciating rupee. The central bank may raise its inflation forecast to 5% and lower GDP growth to 6.5%.
Business Monsoon Delays Could Impact Indian Agriculture and Economy
The delayed onset of the monsoon in India, as forecasted by the IMD, could have significant implications for the agricultural sector and broader economic conditions. This delay is attributed to disrupted atmospheric conditions and a developing storm system.
Trade Monsoon Alert: Sri Lanka Hit, Kerala Next
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Trade UN Warns of Record Heat Impacting Global Trade
The UN projects record-breaking global temperatures over the next five years, posing significant risks to international trade. Importers and exporters must prepare for potential disruptions due to extreme weather events.
Commodities India's Monsoon Forecast: Below Normal at 90% LPA in 2026
The India Meteorological Department forecasts a below-normal monsoon for 2026, with rainfall at 90% of the long period average. This could significantly impact agricultural output in key regions.
Commodities Brent Crude Prices Surge Above $100 Amid Geopolitical Tensions
Brent crude oil prices have surged above $100 per barrel, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions in West Asia. This price increase could lead to an earnings downgrade cycle, particularly affecting sectors sensitive to fuel costs.