India’s kharif sowing has taken a severe hit as the southwest monsoon remains 42% deficient as of June 29, according to AGRI_TIO. Total acreage dropped 23% to 182.72 lakh hectares (lh) by June 25, down from 236.46 lh in the same period last year, marking the first signal of potential lower production amid a Super El Niño forecast. Although the monsoon has revived in some areas, its further advance will be closely watched as July is the most crucial month for sowing most kharif crops.
Crop-by-crop breakdown
Among major crops, only sugarcane — which starts planting earlier but is counted under kharif — showed a rise in area. All other key crops recorded declines. The table below compares acreage as of June 25, 2026 vs the previous year:
| Crop | Acreage 2026 (lh) | Acreage 2025 (lh) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy | 25.75 | 34.41 | -25.2% |
| Pulses (total) | 14.92 | 21.46 | -30.5% |
| Arhar | 3.56 | 8.45 | -57.9% |
| Moong | 8.37 | 8.63 | -3.0% |
| Urad | 1.07 | 2.51 | -57.4% |
| Oilseeds (total) | 16.99 | 36.41 | -53.3% |
| Soybean | 6.92 | 19.97 | -65.3% |
| Groundnut | 8.87 | 15.29 | -42.0% |
| Nutri/coarse cereals (total) | 31.84 | 36.41 | -12.6% |
| Maize | 15.71 | 18.61 | -15.6% |
| Bajra | 11.34 | 13.06 | -13.2% |
| Jowar | 3.38 | 2.70 | +25.2% |
| Cotton | 29.66 | 45.36 | -34.6% |
Cotton acreage fell 35% to 29.66 lh from 45.36 lh, while soybean dropped sharply to 6.92 lh from 19.97 lh. Paddy, the main kharif cereal, was transplanted on 25.75 lh versus 34.41 lh last year. Among pulses, arhar (pigeon peas) saw the steepest decline at over 57%, while urad also fell by the same margin.
Monsoon progress and outlook
The monsoon arrived over Kerala on June 4 but has progressed erratically. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday said conditions are favourable for further advance into parts of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, remaining Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar, and some areas of Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand over the next two days. In the subsequent 2-3 days, monsoon is likely to reach more parts of Madhya Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, southeast Rajasthan, and remaining Gujarat.
Officials noted that sowing has just begun, and if the revival continues for a fortnight, there could be good progress — though it may not match last year’s pace, as 2025 had a good monsoon. The current coverage stands at only 16.5% of the normal season area of 1,104.46 lh, compared to 21% a year ago.
Implications for commodity markets
The sharp acreage declines — especially in cotton, soybean, and pulses — point to potential tight supplies for the 2026-27 marketing year. Traders will monitor July rainfall closely, as a sustained deficit could further reduce yields and final output. The Super El Niño forecast adds to downside risk. Any recovery in sowing will depend on monsoon revival in the next fortnight, making the IMD’s updates critical for price direction in the coming weeks.
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