Topic
monsoon
Commodities India's soyabean acreage recovers as July rains boost Kharif sowing
India's soyabean acreage for Kharif 2026 reached 117.68 lakh ha by July 31, down 0.70% from a year earlier, according to Agriculture Ministry data. July rains boosted sowing in Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Telangana, Uttar Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh, while SOPA pegged the crop area at 117.13 lakh ha. Crop condition is normal to good, with flowering underway.
Commodities Uneven spread of Indian monsoon raises concern over kharif crop prospects
As of July 31, India's South-West monsoon was 13% deficient despite above-normal July rain, and the India Meteorological Department has predicted below-normal rainfall in August. Sixteen states reported deficient rain, kharif acreage lagged year-ago levels by 5%, and Maharashtra farmers are considering short-duration nutri-cereal crops.
Commodities India monsoon deficit narrows to 13% after July surplus; IMD predicts below-normal August rain
India's monsoon rainfall deficit narrowed to 13% in June–July after July posted a 1% surplus, but IMD has forecast below-normal August rain. Regional discrepancies are wide, with the south peninsula and east/north-east recording large shortfalls.
Commodities India’s cotton sowing crosses 100 lakh hectares as monsoon picks up, area expands in key states
India’s cotton sowing area has crossed 100 lakh hectares as the monsoon gathers pace across key producing states. Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh have recorded increases compared to last year. Stakeholders report good crop condition and expect the area to surpass last year’s levels, with sowing window extended to August 25.
Commodities Turmeric Prices Surge to Record Highs on Tight Supplies and Deficient Monsoon Rain Fears
Turmeric prices have surged to record highs, with the August NCDEX contract trading at ₹20,518 per quintal, as tight carry-forward stocks and fears of deficient monsoon rain due to El Nino drive bullish sentiment. Industry stakeholders report a hand-to-mouth supply situation and declining inventories, while exports show mixed signals.
Commodities India's 2026-27 pulses crop hinges on August-September rains, says IPGA chairman
India's 2026-27 kharif pulses crop size will depend on August-September rainfall rather than area sown, according to IPGA chairman Bimal Kothari. Sowing has picked up but overall acreage trails last year, with tur (pigeon pea) area down. Below-normal rains forecast could affect crop maturity, but current supply is abundant and prices are below MSP. Kothari warns that deficient rains could impact the rabi crop in 2027.
Commodities India's Kharif Sowing Deficit Narrows to Under 5% as 71% of Normal Area Covered
Indian farmers have narrowed the Kharif sowing deficit to less than 5% by July 24, covering 787.38 lakh hectares (71% of normal). While paddy, pulses, and oilseeds still trail last year's pace, the deficit has reduced sharply from 21% in early July. Agriculture scientists remain cautiously optimistic, though rainfall patterns in the next two months will be critical.
Commodities Monsoon Revival Defies July Fade-Out Forecast as Deep Depression Strengthens in Bay of Bengal
The Indian monsoon is staging a strong revival in late July, defying forecasts of a fade-out, as a deep depression in the Bay of Bengal drives widespread rainfall. National rainfall deficit improved to -15%, with Central India near normal at -3%. However, the resurgence has caused severe floods in Assam, with 68 casualties and over 6.5 lakh affected, alongside agricultural damage.
Commodities 10% Monsoon Deficit Hits Kharif Output: Government Warns of Production Decline Risks
The Indian government stated that kharif foodgrain production declines when the all-India monsoon rainfall deficiency exceeds about 10%, citing major drought/El Niño years. Meanwhile, cotton production has fallen due to diversification, while spices parks processed over 52,000 tonnes and e-NAM interstate trade surged.
Manufacturing Tractor Industry Growth to Moderate to 1-4% in FY27 on Weak Monsoon Outlook: ICRA
According to ICRA, the tractor industry's volume growth is expected to moderate to 1-4% in FY27, down from 23.5% in FY26, due to a high base and a below-normal monsoon forecast. The Indian Meteorological Department projects below-normal rainfall due to El Nino, posing risks to kharif production and farm incomes. Despite this, margins and credit profiles of OEMs remain healthy.
Commodities Gujarat Records 33% Rainfall Deficit Yet Kharif Sowing Crosses 50 Lakh Hectares
Gujarat has recorded a 33% rainfall deficit, yet kharif sowing has reached 50.83 lakh hectares, about 60% of the three-year average. The deficit has caused lower acreage for water-intensive crops like cotton (-4.3%), groundnut (-15%), and paddy (-34%), while soybean and pulses have seen increases. Eight districts face large deficient rainfall, and 14 others report deficits.
Commodities Kharif Sowing Gap Narrows Despite Widening Rainfall Deficit, Dolat Capital Report Shows
India's kharif sowing gap with last year narrowed sharply even as the cumulative rainfall deficit widened from 15% on July 8 to 23.8% on July 19, according to a Dolat Capital report. Total kharif acreage reached 658.19 lakh ha as of July 17, with rice nearly catching up to last year's pace, while pulses, coarse cereals, oilseeds, and cotton also reduced their shortfalls. Sugarcane remained ahead of last year.
Commodities Kharif Sowing Acreage Down 6% as Sowing Completes in 60% of Normal Area, Says Agriculture Ministry
India's kharif sowing acreage reached 531.25 lakh hectares as of July 17, down 6% from 632.69 lh a year ago, according to the Agriculture Ministry. The deficit narrowed from 21% in early July due to surplus monsoon rains. Paddy coverage is nearly on par, while pulses and oilseeds still lag. The government targets a foodgrain production of 176.16 mt for the season.
Commodities El Niño Warning: Why India Must Regenerate Its Agriculture Now
El Niño, caused by warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, weakens the Indian monsoon, leading to below-normal rainfall and dry spells. Indian agriculture has lost resilience due to synthetic inputs, monocropping, and soil degradation. Regenerative agriculture—restoring soil health, biodiversity, water management, and community institutions—is key to climate-proofing farms.
Commodities Indian Rice Export Prices Rise Third Week on Higher Reserve Price and Monsoon Concerns
Indian rice export prices extended gains for a third consecutive week, driven by a higher reserve price under the government's Open Market Sale Scheme (OMSS) and concerns over weak monsoon rains delaying planting. The 5% broken parboiled variety rose to $352-$357 per tonne, while Bangladesh floods damaged crops on over 28,610 hectares.
Commodities Indian Rice Export Prices Extend Gains as Reserve Price Rises and Monsoon Concerns Linger
Indian rice export prices extended gains for a third consecutive week, supported by a higher government reserve price under the Open Market Sale Scheme and concerns over weak monsoon rains that could delay planting. Bangladesh floods damaged crops on over 28,000 hectares, while Thai and Vietnamese rice prices held steady amid slow trading.
Commodities Central India Rain Deficit Marginally Down as Monsoon Revives Over Past Two Days
The monsoon has revived over the past two days, reducing Central India's rainfall deficit to below 60%. The all-India shortfall remains at 42%, but forecasters expect a stronger monsoon phase next week aided by a likely low-pressure area off the Odisha-Andhra Pradesh coast. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) provide detailed regional outlooks.
Commodities India's kharif sowing reaches 48% of normal area; paddy deficit narrows to 9%
As of July 10, India's kharif sowing covered 531.25 lakh hectares, 48% of the normal area and 16% lower year-on-year. Paddy transplanting deficit narrowed to 9% from 13% a week earlier, but pulses, oilseeds, and coarse cereals saw double-digit declines. Monsoon rainfall deficit stood at 19% for June 1-July 13, raising concerns for future sowing.
Commodities Weak monsoon may boost soluble fertiliser demand but price surge remains key risk: SFAI
India's soluble fertiliser sector faces a dual dynamic: weak monsoon could lift demand for water-soluble products, but a 60-100% price surge over the past year, driven by China's export curbs and West Asia tensions, poses a bigger risk to consumption. SFAI President Rajib Chakraborty warns that high prices may push farmers to cheaper substitutes, while immediate supply is cushioned by stock carryover from last year's poor consumption.
Commodities India Monsoon Deficit Narrows Sharply but Weak Kharif Sowing Persists: Report
India's monsoon deficit has narrowed sharply to 15% below normal from 38% a week earlier, driven by 45% above-normal rainfall. However, Kharif sowing remains significantly behind last year's pace, with total sowing down 20.8% year-on-year, posing risks for agricultural production. Reservoir levels improved but are still 36% lower than last year.
Commodities Reservoirs, sowing trend, next ‘low’ may disprove worst monsoon fears in India
Despite uneven June rainfall, India's reservoir storage in 166 major reservoirs stands close to normal at 47.72 billion cubic metres (bcm) as of July 2, against the normal of 48.40 bcm. A fresh low-pressure area is likely to form over the north Bay of Bengal within 5-6 days, potentially reviving widespread rainfall. Former IMD chief KJ Ramesh stresses that assessing monsoon health via reservoir storage and sowing acreages offers a truer picture than rainfall departures alone.
Cement demand and prices under pressure amid monsoon onset and rising costs
The onset of the south-west monsoon, labour shortages, and rising fuel costs have pushed India's cement prices down ₹3-5 per bag to an average of ₹356, while the industry faces cost inflation of ₹350-400 per tonne. Analysts expect demand to remain subdued for the next two months, with recovery only after the monsoon season.
Business Monsoon Uncertainty Weighs on Gains from Lower Oil Prices, Impacting Rural Consumption
Oil prices have tumbled, leading some analysts to lower India's inflation forecast for the fiscal year. However, uncertainty over monsoon rainfall is nudging consumer firms to temper growth expectations, as rural consumption—which contributed nearly 60% to overall consumption growth in 2022-2023—faces headwinds from a 43% below-normal rain deficit and delayed onset.
Commodities Weak Monsoon May Intensify Water Stress, Threaten Kharif Sowing: NSE Report
A weak southwest monsoon could heighten water stress in India and threaten kharif sowing over the next fortnight, according to an NSE Market Pulse report. The report warns of a fresh supply-side shock and highlights rising temperatures and increased rainfall variability, even as a positive Indian Ocean Dipole may partly offset El Nino effects.
Commodities Monsoon recovery to support kharif sowing as rainfall activity improves: Report
India's monsoon rainfall has improved in recent weeks, with cumulative precipitation up to July 6 at 170.7 mm, 20% below the long period average. The recovery is expected to support kharif sowing, which stood at 35.1 million hectares as of July 5, down 20.8% year-on-year, according to an ICICI Bank report. Regional disparities persist, with East and Northeast India seeing a 41% deficit, while South India has 15% above normal.
Commodities Delayed Monsoon Cuts Marathwada Sowing Area by Nearly 18 Lakh Hectares
The sowing area across eight districts of Maharashtra's Marathwada region has shrunk by 17.87 lakh hectares compared to the same period last year, due to a delayed monsoon. Overall sowing is at just 58% of normal, with rainfall 13% below the expected average of 176 mm. The agriculture department advised farmers against sowing until adequate rainfall is received.
Commodities India's Paddy Acreage Deficit Narrows to 13% on 35% Surplus Rains in Early July
Aided by a 35% surplus of rain in the first five days of July, India's paddy acreage deficit narrowed to 13% as of July 5 from 25% on June 25. However, overall kharif crop acreage remains 21% lower year-on-year. Cotton, soybean, and pulses continue to show significant shortfalls.
Commodities Gujarat’s Kharif Sowing Slows Sharply as 82% Rain Deficit Keeps Farmers Off Fields
Gujarat has experienced an 82% rainfall deficit, bringing kharif sowing to a crawl. By end-June, only 12.71 lakh hectares were sown, 62% lower than last year and just 15% of normal acreage. Major crops like groundnut, cotton, and soybean have seen sharp declines, though cereal sowing increased slightly.
Commodities Cement prices under pressure in July due to monsoon, weak demand: Centrum report
Cement prices are expected to remain flat in July 2026 as the monsoon season and weak underlying demand continue to pressure the sector, according to a Centrum report. Demand in Q1 FY27 was below expectations due to subdued construction activity, labour shortages, elections, heatwaves, and slower government project execution. Dealers do not anticipate any significant price hikes in the near term.
Commodities Kharif Sowing Slumps 23% as Delayed Monsoon Hits India's Key Crops; Reservoir Storage at 26%
Kharif sowing in India has slumped 23% to 182.72 lakh hectares as of June 25, 2026, compared to 236.46 lakh hectares a year ago, due to a delayed and deficient southwest monsoon. Key reservoirs are at 26.37% of full capacity, with 29 reservoirs below 50% of normal storage. Paddy acreage fell 25.17%, pulses 30.47%, and oilseeds 53.33%, raising concerns for agricultural output.
Commodities India’s kharif acreage down 23% as deficient monsoon threatens crop output
India’s kharif sowing area has fallen 23% to 182.72 lakh hectares as of June 25, compared to 236.46 lakh hectares a year ago, driven by a 42% monsoon deficit. Sugarcane is the only major crop showing an increase, while paddy, cotton, soybean, and pulses report significant declines. The India Meteorological Department expects monsoon to advance into more regions in the coming days, but July rains will be critical for recovery.
Commodities Monsoon May Deliver at Healthy Clip Till Mid-July, Falter Thereafter, IMD and ECMWF Forecasts Show
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) expects widespread monsoon rainfall across India through early July, with a cyclonic circulation likely over the north Bay of Bengal. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) projects vigorous monsoon activity in central and western regions until mid-July, after which deficits may emerge over the western half of the country.
Commodities Indian govt identifies 111 districts most vulnerable to monsoon deficit, threatening kharif crops
The Indian government has identified 111 districts as highly vulnerable to crop damage due to low irrigation and high risks of rain shortages from a potential super El Nino. Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan warned that weak monsoon conditions could impact kharif crops and advised states to promote alternative, drought-tolerant crops.
Commodities India Prepares District-Level Contingency Plans as Rainfall Deficit Reaches 40%
India is experiencing a 40% rainfall deficit, prompting the government to activate district-level contingency plans. Agriculture Commissioner PK Singh highlighted improved irrigation infrastructure since the 2015 El Niño and adequate rice and wheat reserves. Farmers may shift to pulses due to delayed monsoon, with imports possible if shortages arise.
Commodities El Nino and Weak Monsoon Pose Greater Threat to India Than US-Iran Conflict
India's weak monsoon, driven by El Nino, presents a more significant economic threat than the recent US-Iran conflict. Cumulative rainfall is 42% below normal, reservoir levels have dropped to 27.7% of capacity, and risks to inflation and rural incomes are mounting. Historical parallels with 2019 and 2023 offer some hope but uncertainty remains.
Commodities Central India faces critical two-week sowing window as monsoon revival offers brief relief
Satellite imagery shows monsoon revival along India's west coast, offering a two-week window (June 22-July 6) for sowing in rain-deficient Central India. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) project rainfall weakening significantly after July 6, with deficits exceeding 60% in parts of the region. Farmers face uncertainty as the best sowing opportunity narrows.
Commodities Indian Cotton Prices Gain on Monsoon Delay and Spike in Global Futures Rates
Indian cotton prices have risen by about ₹1,100 per candy over the past few days, driven by a spike in international ICE futures and a delay in monsoon progress in central India. The cotton sowing area is down 25% year-on-year, and CCI has sold 7 lakh bales recently. Tightening quality cotton supplies and sustained mill demand are supporting prices.
Commodities India’s Kharif Sowing Tops 120 Lakh Hectares, Monsoon Deficiency Not Yet Impacting Acreage
India’s kharif sowing area reached 119.90 lakh hectares as of June 19, up 1.7% from a year ago, despite a 43% monsoon rainfall deficit. Cotton, soybean and urad acreage are lower, while paddy, pulses and coarse cereals show higher coverage. The India Meteorological Department forecasts monsoon advance into new regions by June 24.
Commodities Weak Monsoon Start Clouds Kharif Season Outlook, 360 ONE Capital Warns
India's southwest monsoon has begun the 2026 season with a significant rainfall deficit, 38% below normal as of June 17. Kharif sowing has fallen 3.9% year-on-year, with pulses and cotton hit hardest. Reservoir levels remain a healthy buffer, but close monitoring is needed as the critical July-August period approaches.
Business NSE Flags Monsoon and El Niño Risks as India's 2026 Economy Faces Critical Challenges
The National Stock Exchange (NSE) warns that monsoon performance and El Niño are key risks for India's 2026 economy, with the IMD forecasting rainfall at just 90% of the long-period average. Simultaneously, India's equity investor base has expanded to 13.1 crore, with younger and more diverse participation, though trading activity remains heavily concentrated among large investors.
MINI Bay System May Open Two-Week Rain Window Across Central India
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) indicates favourable conditions for monsoon progression into Central India around next Tuesday, driven by a cyclonic circulation over the Bay of Bengal. Model consensus suggests a two-week period of enhanced rainfall, with detailed regional forecasts for the coming days.
Commodities Weak monsoon set to dent India’s 2026-27 coffee prospects
The weak onset of the southwest monsoon in India's key coffee-growing regions of Kodagu, Chikmagaluru, Hassan, and Wayanad has raised concerns over the 2026-27 coffee crop. Cumulative rainfall deficits range from 29% to 45% in June 1-17, hurting berry development and increasing pest infestations. The USDA projects a 4% drop in output to 6.14 million bags, while the Coffee Board is yet to release its estimates.
Commodities India's Foodgrain Reserves Hit Record 122 mt as El Nino Looms Over 2026 Kharif Crop
India's Central Pool foodgrain reserves hit a record 122.64 million tonnes as of June 1, 2026, sufficient to sustain welfare programmes for over two years. This buffer comes as El Nino threatens the 2026 kharif crop, with the government targeting 176.16 mt of foodgrain production despite a below-normal monsoon forecast.
Commodities Kharif Pulses Sowing Off to a Weak Start: Acreage Down 43% as of June 12
Kharif pulses sowing in India has started weakly with acreage down 43% as of June 12 due to a delayed and deficient monsoon. Tur acreage fell 57%, urad 22%, and moong 55% compared to last year. Farmers in key regions await rains, while the government holds buffer stocks of 4.3-4.5 million tonnes to keep prices in check.
Commodities Monsoon delay in Gujarat deepens farm risk; crop-loss compensation crosses ₹22,733 crore in a decade
Gujarat has recorded an 83% rainfall deficit as of June 16, 2026, with nine districts in Saurashtra reporting a 100% deficit. The state has paid out ₹22,733 crore in crop-loss compensation between FY16 and FY26, with nearly half paid in FY26 alone. Farmers have sown 4.27 lakh hectares so far, led by cotton and groundnut, but moisture stress threatens early crops.
Commodities India Soyabean Acreage Seen Rising Up to 10% on High Prices, Weak Monsoon Outlook
India's soyabean acreage is expected to rise by up to 10% in 2026, from 12 million hectares in 2025, driven by four-year-high prices and a forecast of below-normal monsoon rainfall due to El Nino. Farmers are shifting from water-intensive crops like sugarcane and corn. Higher output could help curb edible oil imports and ease domestic soyabean and soyameal prices.
Commodities India Receives 32% Deficient Rains During June 1-15, IMD Data Shows
India recorded 42.4 mm of rainfall from June 1-15, 32% below the normal of 62.1 mm, according to the India Meteorological Department. Central India saw the largest deficit at 57%, while North-West India had an 8% surplus. Monsoon advancement continues slowly.
Commodities El Nino May Weaken India's Monsoon, Threaten Rice and Maize Output, FAO Warns
The FAO has warned that the newly begun El Nino phase may weaken India's summer monsoon, putting rainfed crops like rice and maize under stress during the kharif season. Historical analysis shows that during the 2015-16 El Nino, India's maize output fell by 4% and rice dropped by 1%, while Southeast Asia lost about 15 million tonnes of rice. The agency also flagged that disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are raising energy and fertiliser costs as farmers prepare for sowing.
Commodities No fertiliser shortage for kharif, rabi crops; govt prepared for El Nino, says Shivraj Singh Chouhan
India's agriculture minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan has stated that there will be no fertiliser shortage for the upcoming kharif and rabi crop seasons. The government has also prepared for potential El Nino conditions. The announcement provides reassurance to the agricultural sector and related trade stakeholders.
Commodities Monsoon Stalls: Rain Deficit Deepens in West India
The monsoon has stalled along India's coast, leading to a significant rain deficit in West India. Key regions like Saurashtra and Kutch are experiencing over 60% below-normal rainfall.
Commodities India's Monsoon Boosted by IoD Amid El Nino Concerns
India's monsoon season could see improved rainfall due to a potential positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IoD) event, despite the looming threat of El Nino. The Bureau of Meteorology reports sea surface temperatures have crossed the El Nino threshold, but a positive IoD could enhance monsoon rains.
Commodities Monsoon Slowdown Expected in North-West India Due to Western Disturbance
The monsoon in north-west India is expected to slow down due to a western disturbance, affecting agricultural activities. Heavy rainfall remains concentrated along the west coast, but a slowdown is anticipated in the coming days.
Commodities Monsoon Advances Amid Strengthening El Niño Signals
The Indian monsoon has advanced further, covering key agricultural regions, while El Niño signals strengthen, potentially impacting crop yields. Traders are closely monitoring these developments.
Trade RBI Warns Monsoon Deficiency May Impact India's Trade
The Reserve Bank of India warns that a projected monsoon deficiency may affect rural demand and consumption, potentially impacting trade. The RBI has adjusted its GDP growth forecast for FY27 to 6.6% amid global supply chain disruptions.
Commodities Delayed Monsoon Affects Indian Agriculture Markets
The delayed monsoon in India, influenced by El Niño, is impacting agricultural commodity markets. Key regions like Gujarat and Rajasthan face below-normal rainfall, affecting crop forecasts.
Commodities India's South-West Monsoon Begins Over Kerala
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Commodities Monsoon Relief Expected in Tamil Nadu
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Commodities India Lowers Foodgrain Output Target Amid Monsoon Concerns
India has reduced its foodgrain output target for the 2026-27 crop year to 373.93 million tonnes, citing concerns over a below-normal monsoon forecast. The decision reflects potential impacts from El Nino, affecting rice and maize production.
Trade Kerala Monsoon Onset Delayed, Rainfall 55% Below Normal
The India Meteorological Department forecasts a delayed monsoon onset over Kerala on June 4, with initial rainfall 55% below normal. This weather pattern could impact agricultural trade and import/export activities in India.
Commodities Monsoon Delays Impact Kerala's Agricultural Markets
The delayed monsoon onset in Kerala is affecting agricultural commodity markets, with potential impacts on crop yields and prices. Traders are closely monitoring weather forecasts and market reactions.