India’s 2026-27 kharif pulses crop size will ultimately depend on rainfall during August and September rather than on the extent of area sown, according to India Pulses and Grains Association (IPGA) chairman Bimal Kothari. While pulses sowing has picked up in recent weeks, overall acreage is still trailing last year’s levels, he said.
Current Sowing Status
As of July 24, pulses acreage stood at 84.57 lakh hectares (lh) compared to 91.46 lh in the same period last year, according to Kothari. The breakdown by crop is as follows:
| Crop | Acreage this year (lh) | Acreage last year (lh) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tur (pigeon pea) | 31.37 | 35.27 | -3.90 |
| Urad | 18.67 | 17.27 | +1.40 |
| Moong bean | 26.87 | 28.39 | -1.52 |
Kothari noted that the deficit is mainly in tur, but ongoing rains are expected to help recovery. Urad acreage has improved significantly. "Therefore, as far as sowing numbers are concerned, there does not appear to be any significant shortfall now. The situation has largely been addressed. However, the key factor to watch is the rainfall during August-September," he said.
Rains Forecast and Impact
According to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast, rainfall during August and September is projected to be below normal. Kothari cautioned that if sufficient rain does not occur in key crop-growing areas in August, it could adversely affect crops already sown. However, he added that it is still premature to draw any conclusion. "While below-normal rainfall may appear concerning, moderate showers at the right time could actually benefit the crop by avoiding harvest-time damage. As of now, however, I do not see any major cause for concern," he said.
Supply and Price Dynamics
On the supply side, Kothari said supply is plenty, and a lot of pulses are selling below the minimum support price (MSP). "I don’t think there is any concern. While prices of other food products such as sugar and edible oils have increased, the prices of pulses are stable. Rather, it has declined since April, and there is no positive contribution of pulses to the food inflation," he said. This stable price environment offers some reassurance to buyers, but traders should note that the current abundance could cap any upside.
Rabi Crop Risk for 2027
Kothari emphasized that the primary worry is not the current year but the 2027 rabi crop harvested in February-March. If rainfall remains deficient and soil moisture is not adequately replenished during August-September, it could affect rabi pulses. "Our concern should be 2027, not 2026," he said. He noted that imports are freely allowed until March 31, 2027, so any domestic shortfall could be covered by imports. However, if deficient rains persist, the impact on rabi sowing could be mild or severe—it is too early to assess.
Outlook for Traders
For commodity traders and analysts, the immediate focus should be on rainfall data over the next two months. The current kharif crop appears well-supplied, keeping prices stable and below MSP. However, any significant deficit in August-September rains could shift the narrative, particularly for rabi pulses. The allowance of imports until March 2027 provides a safety valve, but soil moisture levels will be critical for the 2027 rabi season. The next key data release will be the IMD's monsoon update and weekly sowing progress reports.
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