India’s kharif sowing gap with last year narrowed sharply over the past week, even as the cumulative rainfall deficit widened steadily from 15% on July 8 to 23.8% by July 19, according to a Dolat Capital report. Sowing activity has so far been supported by accumulated soil moisture, allowing acreage to progress despite deteriorating precipitation.
Rainfall Deficit and Sowing Progress
The cumulative rainfall deficit widened over the past three weeks, from 15% as of July 8 to 17.8% on July 12 and 23.8% by July 19, the report noted. Despite this, total kharif acreage stood at 658.19 lakh hectares as of July 17, reflecting a shortfall of 42.28 lakh hectares against the corresponding week of 2025. This gap declined sharply from the 101.4 lakh hectare shortfall recorded in the previous week.
| Metric | Week Ending July 8 | Week Ending July 12 | Week Ending July 19 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cumulative rainfall deficit | 15% | 17.8% | 23.8% |
| Acreage gap vs last year | 101.4 lakh ha | — | 42.28 lakh ha |
Crop-Specific Performance
Rice led the recovery, with acreage reaching 166.41 lakh hectares, marginally below 167.83 lakh hectares a year ago. The shortfall narrowed to 1.41 lakh hectares from 10.8 lakh hectares in the previous week. Pulses acreage rose to 69.23 lakh hectares, though it remained below last year’s 81.52 lakh hectares; the deficit narrowed to 12.29 lakh hectares from 17.22 lakh hectares, supported by improved sowing of Arhar and Urdbean.
For coarse cereals, the report noted that acreage grew to 119.03 lakh hectares against 134.09 lakh hectares last year, reducing the shortfall to 15.06 lakh hectares from 28.6 lakh hectares the prior week. Oilseeds recorded the largest absolute narrowing in the acreage gap among major crop groups, with sowing reaching 147.09 lakh hectares against 155.72 lakh hectares a year ago. The recovery was led by a sharp increase in Bajra sowing.
Sugarcane remains the sole crop running ahead of last year’s acreage. Cotton also saw its shortfall narrow, though it continues to trail last year's levels.
Weather Outlook
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) expects near-normal to above-normal rainfall in parts of East and Central India over the coming week, supported by an upper-air cyclonic circulation likely to develop over the north Bay of Bengal. Most other regions may see below-normal precipitation.
The report also highlighted that El Nino conditions now persist over the equatorial Pacific and are expected to strengthen further through the remainder of the monsoon season, which could influence future rainfall patterns.
Implications for Commodity Markets
Despite the widening rainfall deficit, the narrowing of the sowing gap suggests that soil moisture reserves have so far mitigated the impact on planting progress. However, the continued rainfall shortfall and strengthening El Nino conditions raise concerns about crop yields if precipitation does not improve in critical growing regions. Traders and procurement teams will closely monitor the IMD’s weekly updates and final acreage data, as any further deterioration in monsoon performance could tighten supply expectations for rice, pulses, and oilseeds, potentially influencing domestic and export prices.
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