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Rice Prices Near 10-Month High as El Niño Fuels Supply Concerns

Indian rice export prices held near a 10-month high this week, supported by rising domestic paddy costs and El Niño supply concerns, while Thai prices hit a one-month peak. India's 5% broken parboiled rice was quoted at $358-$364 per ton, unchanged from last week. Vietnam's Food Association proposed floor prices for fragrant rice exports at $500 per ton FOB.

iG
iGEN Editorial
August 7, 2026
Rice Prices Near 10-Month High as El Niño Fuels Supply Concerns

Indian rice export prices held near a 10-month high this week, underpinned by rising domestic paddy prices and concerns that El Niño could tighten supply, while Thai prices climbed to a one-month peak, according to Reuters. India's 5 per cent broken parboiled rice was quoted at $358 to $364 per metric ton, unchanged from last week, and 5 per cent broken white rice was priced at $357 to $363 per ton.

Asian Export Quotes at a Glance

The table below compiles the latest benchmark quotes for 5 per cent broken rice across the region's major export hubs.

Variety / Grade Origin Price (per metric ton) Weekly Change
5% broken parboiled India $358 – $364 Unchanged
5% broken white India $357 – $363 Unchanged
5% broken Thailand $455 – $460 Up from $450 (~1–2%)
5% broken Vietnam $430 – $450 Unchanged

Thai 5 per cent broken rice was quoted at $455 to $460 per ton, up from $450 last week, a Bangkok-based trader told Reuters.

El Niño and Domestic Paddy Costs Support Indian Prices

The Indian market is being supported on two fronts, according to Reuters. Rising domestic paddy prices are lifting export offers, while El Niño-related supply worries are keeping buyers active even at elevated levels. A New Delhi-based dealer with a global trade house said:

"Supply concerns caused by El Nino are supporting prices. Buyers are continuing to purchase despite the rise in prices."

The same report noted that Indian rice exports rose 5 per cent in the first half of 2026, as higher shipments of non-basmati rice offset a drop in basmati exports after the Iran war disrupted trade with Gulf markets.

Thai and Vietnamese Markets: Cautious Buying, Weak Demand

In Thailand, buying remains hand-to-mouth. "There are regular customers in the Asian region like Singapore and Malaysia buying only as much as necessary. As for Indonesia, their production is sufficient," the Bangkok-based trader said. On the supply side, the trader added: "Output is gradually coming in from the central provinces. The outlook is that by the end of this year, rice exports will definitely decline."

Vietnam's 5 per cent broken rice was offered at $430 to $450 per ton on Thursday, unchanged from a week ago, with a Ho Chi Minh City-based trader describing trading activity as quiet due to weak demand, Reuters reported. In a separate development, the Vietnam Food Association said this week it was seeking to impose floor prices for rice exports and domestic fresh paddy to protect producers and exporters from price manipulation. The association proposed a floor export price of $500 per ton, free on board, for fragrant rice and a 7,000-dong floor price for domestic unhusked fresh paddy.

Floods and Climate Adaptation in Bangladesh

Rice prices in Bangladesh remained elevated after two rounds of flooding damaged rice crops and disrupted production, according to Reuters. To address the growing challenge, agriculture officials said the government is developing new climate-resilient rice varieties to help farmers cope with the effects of climate change.

Looking ahead, a Bangkok-based trader projected that by the end of this year, rice exports will definitely decline, while the Vietnam Food Association is pursuing floor prices for exports and domestic paddy to shield producers and exporters from price manipulation.


Sources: AGRI_TIO

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