The US cotton industry views India as a major growth market, with Gary Adams, President and CEO of the National Cotton Council and President of the US Cotton Trust Protocol, predicting that India will emerge as a key importer of US cotton in 2026. Cotton futures on the Inter-Continental Exchange (ICE) are currently trading at a two-month high of over 82 cents per pound, driven by rising crude oil prices amid renewed US-Iran tensions, according to Adams.
India’s rising import demand
India is currently the fourth-largest market for US cotton in the marketing year, Adams noted in an online interaction. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA), in its latest Cotton: World Market and Trade report, raised India’s import estimate for the season ending September to 56.9 lakh bales (170 kg each) from the previous 53.18 lakh bales. The Cotton Association of India projects exports at 60-65 lakh bales, supported by the government’s suspension of the 11% import duty on the natural fibre.
“If we look at India, it is an important market for US cotton,” said Adams. With cotton area down in India and concerns over the monsoon, the country could become a “stronger” market in 2026, he added.
Global cotton market dynamics
The USDA forecasts a 1.5-2% increase in global cotton demand for the 2026-27 season compared to the previous year. Global production is projected at 117.3 million US bales (217.7 kg), while consumption is estimated at 122 million bales, up 200,000 bales from earlier estimates.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| India imports (USDA, current season) | 56.9 lakh bales (raised from 53.18 lakh) |
| India exports (Cotton Association of India) | 60-65 lakh bales |
| Global production (USDA 2026-27) | 117.3 million US bales |
| Global consumption (USDA 2026-27) | 122 million bales |
Vietnam remains the largest market for US cotton exports, followed by Bangladesh as a steady buyer. However, China has weakened as a market due to ongoing trade tensions between the US and China, according to Adams.
Supply-side constraints
Most parts of the US cotton belt are experiencing drought, which could affect the overall global crop, Adams said. US production costs have risen 20% over the past 2-3 years due to higher costs for chemicals, equipment, labour, fertilizer, and fuel, putting economic pressure on producers. Despite this, more US farmers are planting cotton this year.
In India, lower planted area and monsoon uncertainty are key supply concerns. “I think there’s still a lot of question marks on what the crop will look like this year, in India, the United States and globally,” Adams noted.
Energy prices and cotton demand
High oil prices are influencing cotton markets through two channels: they raise synthetic fibre costs (polyester is petroleum-based), boosting cotton’s competitiveness, and they may squeeze consumer spending. “If prices continue to rule firm, it could have an impact on consumption or force consumers to become more conservative,” Adams said. Additionally, growing concerns about microplastics from synthetic apparel appearing in food and water are driving a shift back to natural fibres, positioning cotton favourably.
Adams is currently in India to meet with the textiles industry and attend the Bharat Trade Show.
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