Brent crude futures maintained their position above the $100-a-barrel threshold on Friday as the United States escalated military strikes against Iran, stoking fears of wider supply disruptions across the Persian Gulf and Red Sea. The September ICE Brent contract was at $100.66, down 0.03% on the day, while the September NYMEX West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract stood at $91.95, down 0.26%, according to The Hindu BusinessLine.
Price snapshot across exchanges
Domestic Indian contracts also reflected the bearish intraday bias. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), August crude oil futures opened at ₹8,895, down 1.43% from the previous close of ₹9,024, while September futures traded at ₹8,428, down 1.77% from ₹8,580. The following table summarises the end-of-day-close prices reported at 9:32 am on July 24:
| Contract | Exchange | Price | Day Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude, September 2026 | ICE | $100.66 | -0.03% |
| WTI crude, September 2026 | NYMEX | $91.95 | -0.26% |
| Crude oil, August 2026 | MCX | ₹8,895 | -1.43% |
| Crude oil, September 2026 | MCX | ₹8,428 | -1.77% |
Military strikes and Strait of Hormuz risks
The latest price action follows a statement by US Central Command that its forces had completed the 13th straight night of strikes against Iran at 9 pm ET on July 23. These strikes targeted Iranian military command centres, drone storage facilities, communication networks, coastal surveillance sites, and maritime capabilities "to further diminish the threat Iran poses to civilian mariners and commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz," the statement said. The command added that the international waterway remains open for transit despite recent attacks from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, noting that "commercial vessels continue to freely navigate the strait with US military support."
Analyst perspective and supply disruption concerns
In their Commodities Feed for Friday, Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Strategy of ING Think, and Ewa Manthey, Commodities Strategist, said oil prices surged on Thursday, with ICE Brent breaking above $100 a barrel for the first time since May. Further escalation in the Persian Gulf and fears of a widening conflict are putting a significant amount of oil supply at risk. Houthi attacks on Saudi vessels in the Red Sea have the potential to widen this conflict, leading to further escalation, they said.
US President Donald Trump said he will hold Iran responsible for attacks on vessels in the Red Sea, while suggesting a ratcheting up of attacks against Iran. Market fears will be centred around the risk of energy infrastructure in the region being targeted once again, the analysts noted.
"With little-to-no sign of de-escalation, the market is likely to take the path of least resistance for now. This suggests oil prices will only continue to move higher. The key question is at what price level pressure begins to build on the Trump administration to return to the negotiating table. If Trump's previous spikes during the early stages of the war are any guide, pressure to de-escalate will likely grow significantly if, and when, Brent nears $120 a barrel. For Iran, it's less about where oil prices are trading and more about how long they can endure a collapse in oil revenues amid the US blockade," the ING Think analysts wrote.
Supply disruptions: Hormuz, Red Sea, and CPC terminal
The potential supply disruptions facing the market now are larger than at any time during the war, according to the analysts. Not only have oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz essentially dried up, but there are clear risks to Saudi oil flows from the Red Sea. In June, Saudi crude oil exports from Yanbu in the Red Sea averaged roughly 4.6 million barrels a day.
"In addition, we're seeing disruptions to Kazakh oil flows from the CPC terminal in Russia, amid alleged Ukrainian attacks on tankers. Export volumes from this terminal in recent months have exceeded 1.7 million barrels a day," they said.
In a post on Truth Social, President Trump stated:
Please let this statement serve to represent, until further notice, that from this point forth, any and all damages done to Ships, Cargo, or anything related thereto, will be paid for by Iranian Money that the United States has in its possession, and controls. These damages may be very substantial but, nevertheless, this is the fair and equitable thing to do.
The combination of sustained US military pressure, Houthi threats to Red Sea shipping, and disruptions at the CPC terminal in Russia means that the supply-side risk premium is firmly embedded in crude prices. For traders and procurement teams, the path of least resistance points to further upside unless diplomatic off-ramps materialise. The next key thresholds to watch are whether Brent can hold above $100 and whether the Trump administration shows willingness to de-escalate when prices approach $120 a barrel — a level that ING Think analysts highlight as a potential inflection point for renewed negotiations.
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