Crude oil futures traded lower on Thursday morning, as forecasts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted a decline in crude oil demand in 2026, according to The Hindu BusinessLine.
Price action across exchanges
At 9.40 am on Thursday, October Brent oil futures were at $88.55, down 0.48 per cent from the previous close, and September crude oil futures on West Texas Intermediate (WTI) were at $82.76, down 0.61 per cent, the report said. On India's Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), August crude oil futures were trading at ₹7,892 during the initial hour of trading, against the previous close of ₹7,928, down 0.45 per cent. September futures were at ₹7,814, against the previous close of ₹7,845, down 0.40 per cent.
| Contract | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| October Brent | $88.55 | -0.48% |
| September WTI | $82.76 | -0.61% |
| August MCX | ₹7,892 | -0.45% |
| September MCX | ₹7,814 | -0.40% |
The declines followed forecasts from both OPEC and the IEA pointing to weaker 2026 demand.
OPEC's August Monthly Oil Market Report
OPEC's Monthly Oil Market Report for August said global oil demand is forecast to grow by 0.58 million barrels a day in 2026 year-on-year, following a slight downward revision from last month's assessment, according to The Hindu BusinessLine. The OECD is forecast to slightly decline by about 40,000 barrels a day, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 0.6 million barrels a day.
IEA sees sharper 2026 demand decline
The IEA's Oil Market Report for August said world oil demand is forecast to decline by 1.6 million barrels a day in 2026, 510,000 barrels a day more than its estimate in last month's report, as the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz and elevated fuel prices continue to weigh on oil consumption. Annual contractions will nevertheless ease from 4.9 million barrels a day in the second quarter of 2026 to 2.8 million barrels a day in the third quarter, before returning to growth in the final quarter, the IEA reported. Elevated fuel prices are putting further downward pressure on oil use.
US-Iran deadlock and Strait of Hormuz
US President Donald Trump took to Truth Social to state that the US is controlling the Strait of Hormuz. His post read:
“The U.S.A. has total control over the Strait of Hormuz. I THINK WE WILL KEEP IT! Our Naval Blockade is being called, by everyone, 'A WALL OF STEEL,' and there is nothing Iran can do about it. They have no Navy, they have no Air Force, their remaining soldiers are unpaid, the IRGC is decimated and fleeing, and their 'Leadership' is uncertain, at best! They have No Money - Their country is 'shot.' All they have is FAKE NEWS and 300% INFLATION, and getting worse! Iran is all talk and no action, the Bully of the Middle East No Longer.”
In their Commodities Feed for Thursday, Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Strategy at ING Think, and Ewa Manthey, Commodities Strategist, said oil prices edged lower through much of Wednesday's session, with Brent crude ending the day largely flat. There was little in the way of fresh developments between the US and Iran, with both sides remaining in a deadlock.
Novorossiysk drone attack spares oil terminals
The latest large drone attack on Russia's Novorossiysk port appears to have spared oil infrastructure, with no reports of damage to oil terminals as of now, Patterson and Manthey said.
Market implications
The contrasting projections from OPEC and the IEA underscore the uncertainty surrounding 2026 oil demand. OPEC still expects growth of 0.58 million barrels per day, while the IEA projects a drop of 1.6 million barrels per day, with the Strait of Hormuz closure and elevated fuel prices as the key drags. Traders and procurement teams will be monitoring further US-Iran developments and any potential disruptions to Russian oil infrastructure, as these could meaningfully alter the supply-demand balance outlined in the August reports.
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