The United Arab Emirates' exit from OPEC has already trimmed the group's share of global crude oil output and production capacity, according to data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). The report stated that OPEC, including the UAE, produced an estimated 28.0 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil in 2025, accounting for 35% of total global production. Without the UAE's contribution, that share would have fallen further to 31%.
UAE's Role and Departure
The UAE announced its decision to leave OPEC on April 28, 2026, with the exit taking effect from May 1. The country had been a member since 1967 when the emirate of Abu Dhabi joined. By 2025, the UAE held the third-largest crude oil production capacity within OPEC, after Saudi Arabia and Iraq, producing an average of 3.4 million b/d of crude oil with an estimated effective production capacity of 4.2 million b/d.
Impact on OPEC and OPEC+ Shares
The EIA report highlighted that without the UAE, the group's share of world total crude oil production would have been 31% in 2025, down from 35%. On a wider scale, the OPEC+ alliance accounted for about 46% of global crude oil production in 2025. Excluding the UAE, that figure would have eased to around 42%, underscoring the country's meaningful role in the bloc's overall output balance.
| Metric | With UAE | Without UAE |
|---|---|---|
| OPEC share of global crude production (2025) | 35% | 31% |
| OPEC+ share of global crude production (2025) | 46% | 42% |
Saudi Arabia Remains Key
Saudi Arabia remained the largest and most influential member of OPEC. In 2025, it was the world's second-largest oil producer, with output of 9.3 million b/d and an estimated production capacity of 11.6 million b/d.
Strait of Hormuz Disruptions
The report also highlighted the impact of the conflict in Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has significantly disrupted oil production and exports across the region. According to EIA estimates, crude oil production disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz closure could rise from 8.89 million b/d in March 2026 to 10.52 million b/d in April and 11.25 million b/d in May.
| Country | Estimated Production Shut-ins in May 2026 |
|---|---|
| Iraq | 3.19 million b/d |
| Saudi Arabia | 3.29 million b/d |
| Kuwait | 1.98 million b/d |
| UAE | 1.35 million b/d |
The report noted that the UAE and Saudi Arabia were the only regional OPEC countries able to reroute crude oil exports around the Strait of Hormuz following the disruption.
Background on OPEC
OPEC was formed in 1960 by Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela to coordinate petroleum policies among member countries. It remains one of the most influential groups in the global oil market.
For commodity traders and analysts, the reduction in OPEC's market share, combined with continued supply disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz, points to a tighter global supply balance. The UAE's exit introduces further uncertainty in production allocations, and the ability of Saudi Arabia and the UAE to bypass the strait gives them strategic flexibility that other members lack.
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