Cement prices are expected to remain largely flat in July 2026 as the monsoon season and weak underlying demand continue to weigh on the sector, according to a report by Centrum. The report noted that demand during the first quarter of FY27 remained range-bound and below expectations, with subdued construction activity, labour shortages, elections, heatwaves, and slower execution of government projects cited as key reasons for the weakness.
Demand Weakness and Seasonal Factors
Dealers across markets pointed to a combination of factors that have kept cement demand subdued. According to the Centrum report, the following issues contributed to the weak demand environment:
- Subdued construction activity due to the ongoing monsoon season.
- Labour shortages affecting project timelines.
- Elections causing disruptions in normal business.
- Heatwaves in several regions.
- Slower execution of government projects.
Despite some recovery in June, attributed to the delayed onset of the monsoon and quarter-end volume push, dealers do not expect any meaningful increase in cement prices during July.
Price Outlook and Dealer Sentiment
The report highlighted that the sharp correction in prices following the rollback of April price hikes has largely played out across most regions. However, the seasonal slowdown in construction activity during the monsoon is expected to continue impacting demand and pricing in the coming months.
"Dealers across most markets do not expect any meaningful price hikes in July, as the monsoon and weak underlying demand are likely to keep prices under pressure," the Centrum report said.
Centrum noted that while some markets may witness attempts to raise prices, dealers believe such efforts are primarily aimed at protecting existing price levels rather than pushing through significant increases.
Factors Influencing Cement Prices
| Factor | Impact on Prices |
|---|---|
| Monsoon season | Reduces construction activity, pressures demand |
| Weak underlying demand | Limits ability to raise prices |
| Rollback of April hikes | Price correction already played out |
| Quarter-end volume push in June | Provided temporary relief, but not sustained |
| Elections and heatwaves | Disrupted construction schedules |
| Labour shortages | Slowed project execution |
Forward View
The brokerage further noted that pricing pressure is likely to persist through the second quarter of FY27 as monsoon-related demand softness continues. Dealers remain cautious about the sustainability of any price increase attempts and do not rule out further weakness in cement prices during the peak monsoon period.
According to the report, the combination of subdued demand and seasonal factors is likely to limit the industry’s ability to raise prices in the near term. While June saw some improvement in volumes due to delayed rains and quarter-end sales efforts, the broader demand environment remains challenging.
For commodity traders and procurement teams, the current outlook suggests a buyer's market in the near term, with limited upside for prices until the monsoon recedes and construction activity picks up. The report's findings indicate that any price increases in July are likely to be defensive rather than reflective of strong demand.
Sources:
