Gold prices remain under severe pressure after suffering their worst quarterly loss in 13 years, according to a July 1, 2026 report from Business Today. Spot gold closed Q2 2026 down nearly 14% — the steepest quarterly decline since 2013 — and has now fallen for five consecutive weeks, slipping below $3,980/oz, the lowest level since November. The current market price (CMP) stands at $3,975/oz, a far cry from the record high above $5,600/oz touched in January, representing a correction of nearly 29%.
Key Drivers Behind the Decline
The report attributes the brutal sell-off to multiple headwinds. Expectations of higher US interest rates remain the dominant drag, as hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve reinforce a higher-for-longer policy stance. Easing US-Iran tensions have reduced geopolitical risk premiums, while a stronger US dollar and resilient US economic data — including firm macro figures — have further diminished safe-haven demand. Elevated Treasury yields continue to weigh on the non-yielding metal, as investors gravitate toward interest-bearing assets.
Vedika Narvekar, Research Analyst - Commodities & Currencies at Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers, stated in the report: "Gold prices will continue to be under pressure with rate hike expectations in place, with near-term outlook negative."
Technical and Market Indicators
The bearish case is reinforced by a classic Death Cross on the daily chart — the 50-day moving average crossing below the 200-day moving average — which the report notes "reinforces the bearish technical outlook." Global gold ETFs have also seen sustained outflows: net redemptions exceeded 38 tonnes during the week ended June 26, reflecting continued investor caution.
| Metal | CMP | Support | Resistance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spot Gold | $3,975/oz | $3,880 / $3,800 | $4,170 / $4,300 |
| Spot Silver | $57.57/oz | $54 / $52 | $60 / $64 |
| MCX Gold (₹/10g) | ₹1,37,700 | ₹1,34,800 | ₹1,48,000 / ₹1,52,600 |
Demand Dynamics
Physical demand has shown a split pattern. In India, lower prices have attracted buyers, providing some support at the consumer level. However, Chinese demand remains subdued, offering little offset. Globally, ETF outflows indicate that institutional investors are still cautious, preferring to wait for a clearer policy direction from the Fed.
Outlook and Key Data to Watch
Markets this week will closely monitor US Non-Farm Payrolls, the unemployment rate, ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and FOMC commentary, along with Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index. The report also highlights US-Iran negotiations and broader geopolitical developments as variables that could influence safe-haven flows.
While a short-covering rally is possible if incoming data softens the rate outlook, the overall bias remains negative. "Precious metals are likely to remain under pressure as long as expectations of tighter US monetary policy persist," the report states. Silver, currently at $57.57/oz, is expected to trade in a range-bound but volatile fashion, with downside cushioned after the recent sharp fall but upside dependent on easing real yields or sustained dollar weakness.
For traders and procurement teams, the key signal will be whether the Death Cross and relentless ETF selling give way to renewed investment demand once the Fed's path becomes clearer. Until then, gold is likely to test the $3,800 support zone, with any data surprise that delays rate cuts potentially accelerating the decline.
This article is based exclusively on the July 1, 2026 Business Today report by the TOI Business Desk.
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