Gold prices are poised for volatility as markets await the US Federal Reserve's policy decision today, July 29, 2026, according to Business Today. Spot gold is currently trading at $4,030/oz, with the metal ending last week with a modest gain of nearly 0.9% — a recovery that Vedika Narvekar, Research Analyst - Commodities & Currencies at Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers, described as more of a technical bounce than a change in the underlying trend. A sharp pullback in crude oil prices from above $100 per barrel and easing US Treasury yields offered some relief to bullion, though the broader picture remains cautious, with gold continuing to trade within a five-week consolidation range.
ETF Inflows and Physical Demand
Encouragingly, the World Gold Council reported 18.1 tonnes of net ETF inflows for the week ended July 24, putting July on track to become the first month in three with positive inflows. This suggests investor sentiment is beginning to stabilize despite recent weakness. At the same time, an encouraging development has been gold's ability to repeatedly hold around the $4,000/oz mark. Physical holdings have remained broadly stable near 4,000 tonnes, indicating that long-term buyers continue to accumulate at lower levels even as speculative demand has cooled, according to Narvekar.
Focus on Fed Policy and Key Data
The spotlight this week is firmly on today's FOMC policy decision, expected to set the tone for gold's next major move. While markets still assign the highest probability to the Fed leaving rates unchanged, expectations of a future rate hike have increased notably, making Chair Warsh's comments on inflation and the September policy path even more important. Beyond the Fed, traders will closely watch US GDP, Core PCE inflation, and the Employment Cost Index, as these releases will shape expectations for future interest rate decisions. Meanwhile, oil prices, the US dollar, and Treasury yields will remain key variables, as any renewed rise in crude could revive inflation fears and weigh on bullion.
Technical Levels and Near-Term Outlook
| Instrument | Current Market Price (CMP) | Support Levels | Resistance Levels |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spot Gold | $4,030/oz | $3,960 / $3,860 | $4,220 / $4,300 |
| MCX Gold (Aug) | Rs 1,41,400 | Rs 1,38,900 / Rs 1,36,000 | Rs 1,46,700 / Rs 1,49,000 |
From a weekly perspective, gold is likely to remain volatile, with today's Fed meeting acting as the biggest catalyst. A hawkish message that reinforces higher-for-longer interest rates could strengthen the US dollar and bond yields, putting renewed pressure on gold. Conversely, if the Fed adopts a more balanced tone and upcoming inflation data shows signs of easing, bullion could extend its recovery from the $4,000/oz support area. Overall, the medium-term bias remains constructive as long as physical demand continues to absorb selling pressure near the $4,000 level, but the Fed's guidance today will be crucial in determining the next directional move.
Silver Outlook
Silver, too, has been consolidating at lower levels, trading in a narrow $55–62/oz range since late June. For now, prices are largely taking cues from Fed policy expectations and the direction of the US dollar, while the ongoing supply deficit continues to provide a supportive medium-term outlook. International silver is currently at $57.50/oz, with support at $56.50 and $54.50, and resistance at $62 and $65. On MCX, the silver September contract is at Rs 2,17,000, with support at Rs 2,13,500/Rs 2,05,800 and resistance at Rs 2,33,000/Rs 2,45,000.
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