The Indian rupee depreciated by 30 paise to close at 94.63 against the US dollar on Monday, weighed down by the strength of the American currency overseas and lingering uncertainty surrounding developments in the Middle East, according to a Business-Today report.
Forex traders said the domestic currency witnessed volatile trading during the session as supportive debt and deposit inflows were offset by a firm dollar and the lack of clarity over a long-term peace deal in the Middle East. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 94.42 against the dollar, down 9 paise from Friday's close of 94.33. During the day, it moved between 94.24 and 94.76 before settling at 94.63.
Dollar Strength and Importer Demand
The dollar index, which measures the US currency against a basket of six major currencies, was trading 0.03 per cent higher at 100.88, supported by the US Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran diplomatic process, the report said. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, fell 1.75 per cent to $79.16 per barrel in futures trade, providing some support to the rupee.
According to Dilip Parmar, research analyst at HDFC Securities, lower crude prices, a relatively stable dollar and positive risk sentiment were not enough to support the Indian currency.
"Despite a favourable backdrop of lower crude oil prices, a stable greenback, and positive risk-on sentiment, the rupee faced downward pressure as bargain hunting by traders and importers drove up USD demand," Parmar said, as cited by news agency PTI.
He added that spot USD-INR is expected to find support around 94.10, while immediate resistance is seen at 95.30.
Equity Market and Capital Flows
Domestic equities ended higher on Monday, with the Sensex rising 291.17 points to close at 77,094.07 and the Nifty gaining 89.80 points to settle at 24,102.90. However, foreign institutional investors turned net sellers, offloading equities worth Rs 635.91 crore during the session, according to exchange data.
On the macroeconomic front, government data showed growth in India's eight core infrastructure sectors slowed to a seven-month low of 0.5 per cent in May, compared with 1.8 per cent in April, due to weaker output from coal, crude oil and refinery products.
RBI's Forex Market Intervention
According to the RBI's monthly bulletin, the central bank net sold $8.944 billion in the spot foreign exchange market in April, following net sales of $9.758 billion in March. The bulletin noted that the rupee remained under pressure during April and May due to geopolitical tensions and foreign portfolio outflows, but recovered in June on the back of capital flow measures, easing tensions and lower crude prices.
Despite Monday's decline, the rupee has appreciated 0.2 per cent against the dollar so far in the current financial year up to June 19, according to RBI data.
Middle East Developments
Market participants also tracked developments in Switzerland, where US-Iran talks concluded with an agreement to begin a 60-day diplomatic process aimed at reaching a permanent settlement to the conflict. However, concerns persisted after Iran reiterated that it had shut the Strait of Hormuz, while the US maintained that shipping traffic continued through the key energy corridor.
Trade Finance and Business Implications
For CFOs and treasury professionals managing import-export exposures, the rupee's depreciation increases the cost of dollar-denominated trade finance and raises hedging costs. Importers face higher outflows unless hedged, while exporters gain a competitive price advantage. The RBI's active intervention—net selling $8.944 billion in April—signals its willingness to manage volatility, but the 30-paise move in a single session highlights the risk of abrupt FX moves. The ongoing Middle East uncertainty, particularly the Strait of Hormuz situation, adds a layer of supply-chain risk for crude oil and refined products, directly impacting input costs for industries such as petrochemicals and transportation. Treasury teams should monitor the 94.10 support and 95.30 resistance levels cited by HDFC Securities for potential hedging triggers.
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