The rupee opened at 95.15 against the US dollar in the interbank foreign exchange market before strengthening further to 95.12, marking a gain of 31 paise over its previous close of 95.43, according to Business-Today. The Indian currency's advance was supported by a weaker dollar, falling global crude oil prices, foreign fund inflows, higher forex reserves and continued intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), forex traders said.
The move extends the rupee's positive run to a fifth consecutive session; it ended Friday 7 paise stronger, according to Business-Today.
Geopolitical backdrop and oil market reaction
Sentiment improved after US President Donald Trump said he had decided against carrying out planned strikes on Iran, according to Business-Today. On Sunday, Trump said American forces had been prepared to launch "the biggest attack since World War II", but he chose to put the plan on hold after requests from Gulf allies Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, as well as appeals from unnamed Iranian officials. He also said he had spoken with key Gulf leaders, including Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, before deciding to give diplomacy more time.
The easing of geopolitical concerns was reflected in oil markets. Brent crude fell 5% to $83.66 a barrel, while the dollar index, which tracks the US currency against six major peers, was down 0.17% at 99.74, according to Business-Today.
Treasurer's outlook and expected trading range
Explaining the factors supporting the rupee, Anil Kumar Bhansali, head of treasury and executive director, Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP, said:
The rupee was supported by lower Brent crude oil prices, a weaker dollar, and sustained foreign portfolio inflows, and continued RBI presence in the foreign exchange market on Friday.
"As Brent oil prices fell to $84 per barrel after Trump delayed strikes on Iran, the rupee opened at 95.15 on Monday and is expected to trade in the range of 95.00-95.50," he added, according to Business-Today.
Domestic support: FII flows, reserves and equity markets
Domestic indicators also remained supportive, according to Business-Today. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) purchased equities worth Rs 277.48 crore on a net basis on Friday, exchange data showed.
India's foreign exchange reserves rose by $6.118 billion to $682.354 billion during the week ended July 24, according to the RBI's latest data released on Friday. In the previous reporting week, reserves had increased by $1.08 billion to $676.237 billion.
Dalal Street began the week on a firm footing. In early trade, Sensex climbed 470.06 points to 78,564.70, while Nifty gained 150 points to reach 24,532.95. Separately, data released by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA) showed that the Centre's fiscal deficit stood at 18.2% of the full-year target at the end of June.
Key data points for CFOs and treasury teams
| Indicator | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| USD/INR open | 95.15 | Interbank forex market |
| USD/INR intraday high | 95.12 | Vs. previous close of 95.43 |
| Rupee gain | 31 paise | Fifth straight positive session |
| Brent crude | $83.66/barrel | Down 5% |
| Dollar index | 99.74 | Down 0.17% |
| FII net equity purchases | Rs 277.48 crore | Friday, exchange data |
| Forex reserves | $682.354 billion | Up $6.118 billion, week ended July 24 |
| BSE Sensex | 78,564.70 | Up 470.06 points |
| NSE Nifty | 24,532.95 | Up 150 points |
| Fiscal deficit | 18.2% of FY target | End-June, CGA data |
For CFOs and treasury directors, the week's opening data provides concrete reference points: Bhansali's expected USD/INR trading range of 95.00-95.50, Brent crude at $83.66 a barrel, and India's forex reserves at $682.354 billion. The RBI's continued market presence, cited by traders, remains a factor in dollar-rupee movements.
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