The big-and-bulky last-mile delivery sector — responsible for delivering furniture, appliances, and exercise equipment with in-home installation — is experiencing a sharp slowdown, with growth rates halved as the housing market stalls, according to a joint report from Armstrong & Associates and the National Home Delivery Association covered by FreightWaves.
The segment grew at over 10% annually over the past eight years, but is now forecast to expand at roughly a 5% rate between last year and 2027. The primary driver is a stalled housing market: homeowners with low-rate mortgages are reluctant to move at today's 6% to 7% mortgage rates, and elevated home prices keep potential buyers on the sidelines. Fewer home sales directly translate into fewer furniture and appliance purchases, suppressing demand for white-glove delivery services.
Growth Forecast Cut in Half
The Armstrong & Associates and National Home Delivery Association report provides a clear picture of the deceleration:
| Metric | Past 8 Years (Actual) | Forecast (2026-2027) |
|---|---|---|
| Big-and-bulky last-mile delivery growth | Over 10% annually | ~5% annually |
Tariff-driven cost pressures on steel-heavy goods such as appliances added headwinds last year, though those costs have "kind of normalized," according to an industry analyst on the FreightWaves program. Still, discretionary spending remains squeezed, keeping consumers cautious about large-ticket home purchases.
Competition and Technology
Competition inside the sector has intensified after a wave of entrants over the past five to ten years, squeezing margins and making differentiation difficult. The report concludes that winning providers will focus on execution over novel service offerings, leaning on AI-driven tools — route optimization, predictive estimated time of arrival (ETA), and computer vision for damage assessment — to wring out efficiency gains.
"The big thing is kind of this housing market influence on the last mile delivery sector and e-commerce," said the analyst, who identified home delivery as his area of expertise.
Labor and Consolidation
Labor availability adds another layer of uncertainty. Regulatory enforcement targeting non-domiciled CDL drivers — a group that has historically filled straight-truck and box-truck roles attractive to last-mile operators — is shrinking the available driver pool, according to the analyst, who noted the concern is widespread even though specific data on the impact are not yet available.
Consolidation is also on the horizon, particularly as the economics of serving rural and suburban stops grow more challenging. Building scale or a broader national footprint is increasingly necessary to make unit economics work in lower-density markets.
For logistics managers and freight forwarders handling big-and-bulky goods, the key takeaway is that the current downturn is structural rather than cyclical. Providers that invest in AI-driven execution tools and scale through consolidation will be better positioned to weather the slowdown. Shippers should expect tighter capacity in rural and suburban areas as driver availability shrinks, and plan for longer lead times or higher costs on those routes.
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