US intermodal rail volume posted a robust 10% increase last week, yet the surge is causing significant network slowdowns that threaten service reliability for shippers and forwarders. According to FreightWaves, citing Bill Stephens of Trains Magazine, some major railroads are experiencing 10-20 month lows in train speeds, even as overall intermodal demand continues its strong growth streak.
Volume Growth and Contradictions
The 10% spike in US intermodal volume, based on the latest figures from the Association of American Railroads (AAR), continues a multi-week growth trend. However, the operational picture is sharply different: network speeds are decelerating, which directly impacts transit times and equipment turns. In contrast, Canadian intermodal volumes are declining, creating a stark bifurcation in North American rail performance.
Speed Decline and Service Impact
The speed deterioration is broad, affecting multiple Class I railroads. The drop to 10-20 month lows means that shippers using intermodal for time-sensitive freight face increasing variability. The table below summarises the key metrics:
| Metric | US Intermodal | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Weekly volume change | +10% | Up |
| Train speeds | 10-20 month lows | Down |
| Canadian intermodal volume | Declining | Down |
| Crew staffing | Straining | Negative |
| Fleet capacity | Under pressure | Negative |
Root Causes: Crew and Capacity
The growth in intermodal volume, while welcome, has exposed crew staffing shortages and fleet capacity constraints. Railroads are struggling to hire and retain qualified personnel, and equipment availability is tightening. These issues, combined with the unexpected demand surge, are creating a perfect storm for slower network velocity. Bill Stephens of Trains Magazine noted that these challenges are the focus of ongoing industry discussions. Meanwhile, the commodity segments driving growth—while not specified in the source—are likely bulk and containerised goods tied to consumer demand and industrial production.
Contrast with Canadian Market
While US intermodal booms, Canada is seeing the opposite. The decline in Canadian intermodal volumes widens the performance gap and may shift some cross-border flows or alter capacity allocation by railroads operating in both countries. For logistics managers, this means closely monitoring border crossing points and equipment repositioning strategies.
Upcoming Events and Industry Focus
The supply chain community is set to address these issues at upcoming events. The Supply Chain AI Symposium and the F3: Future of Freight Festival (taking place in Chattanooga, TN) will feature discussions on deploying AI in supply chain and industry-defining keynotes. These gatherings offer platforms for operators and shippers to explore solutions for capacity and workforce challenges.
Implications for Shippers and Operators
The near-term outlook for US intermodal is a mix of rising volume and falling speeds. Companies should expect longer transit times and potential service variability on key lanes. For freight forwarders and logistics managers, the immediate actions should include: reviewing inventory buffers, diversifying modal options where feasible, and engaging early with rail carriers on capacity commitments. The crew staffing and fleet capacity issues are structural and may persist, requiring medium-term planning.
Watch list: upcoming AAR weekly reports on volume and speed; announcements from major railroads on crew hiring; and equipment availability trends. The divergence between US and Canadian intermodal could also affect cross-border trade routing decisions.
Sources:
