Truckload spot rates are surging into the third quarter, with broker RXO's linehaul index up 43% year over year so far — a sign that capacity tightening and inflationary carrier costs are shifting market leverage ahead of peak season, according to FreightWaves.
RXO (NYSE: RXO) said Tuesday that its truckload spot rate index recorded its biggest sequential gain in five years during the second quarter, FreightWaves reported. The dataset, which tracks linehaul rates excluding fuel surcharges, has continued to step higher in the third quarter. The company's Curve Report showed second-quarter spot rates up 32.4% year over year, accelerating from a 16.5% year-over-year increase in the first quarter.
"The index has not experienced this level of rate inflation since pandemic-era surges, with the second quarter hitting both the highest year-over-year reading and largest sequential increase since the second quarter of 2021," the report said, according to FreightWaves.
Spot Rate Index Hits Five-Year High
Spot rates "consistently outpaced contract rates," and shipper routing guides are seeing "increased strain," according to Corey Klujsza, RXO's vice president of pricing and procurement. "That trend is not only continuing but picking up steam as we head into peak season," Klujsza said. "Though we've been in a year-over-year inflationary environment for over two years, the truckload market is starting to feel materially different."
A steady exodus of capacity due to heightened regulatory enforcement and years of poor carrier economics has materially tightened the market even in the absence of a meaningful demand inflection, FreightWaves reported.
RXO's all-in cost-per-mile index, which includes fuel surcharges, stood at 154.9 in the second quarter — the highest reading since the first quarter of 2022, according to FreightWaves.
Contract Rates and Carrier Costs Climb
Jared Weisfeld, RXO's chief strategy officer, said the inflationary rate environment is likely to continue even with muted freight volumes. He noted carrier operating costs are 29% higher (ex-fuel) than the prior cycle peak, meaning rates still need to move significantly higher to improve carrier margins. "Any sustained increase in shipping volumes will further strain an already diminished supply base and add more inflationary pressure on rates," Weisfeld said.
Rate data from Cass Information Systems (NASDAQ: CASS) showed contract rates (excluding fuel and accessorial surcharges) up 6% year over year on average in the second quarter, a step up from the 2.4% average year-over-year increase logged in the first quarter. Cass's TL linehaul rate index was 8.6% higher year over year in July, FreightWaves reported.
| Rate Metric | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 (to date) | July 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RXO TL spot rate index (y/y) | 16.5% | 32.4% | 43% | — |
| Cass contract rates (y/y) | 2.4% | 6% | — | — |
| Cass TL linehaul index (y/y) | — | — | — | 8.6% |
| RXO all-in cost-per-mile index | — | 154.9 | — | — |
Carrier Scorecard: Schneider, Werner
Public truckload carriers reported large year-over-year contractual rate increases in the second quarter as shippers became more selective, according to FreightWaves. This shift is largely driven by concerns over potential legal liabilities tied to employing non-compliant carriers, alongside fears of carriers defaulting on capacity obligations throughout peak season.
Schneider National (NYSE: SNDR) recorded double-digit rate increases on contract renewals in its one-way fleet, and the company plans to place additional equipment into the spot market to take advantage of favorable market dynamics after losing a large dedicated customer, FreightWaves reported. Werner Enterprises (NASDAQ: WERN) reported a 10% year-over-year increase in revenue per total mile in the recent period and forecast a 10% to 13% year-over-year increase in rate per mile for the third quarter.
Shipper Implications and Actions
These rate trends signal a shift in market leverage where tightening capacity and inflationary carrier costs necessitate more aggressive pricing strategies to protect margins, FreightWaves reported. This environment, characterized by spot rates outpacing contract agreements, underscores the urgent need to secure reliable carrier capacity and proactively manage routing guide strain ahead of the peak season.
RXO noted "a few reasons to be optimistic heading into this peak season," as retailers continue to log same-store sales growth while their inventories remain "healthy." "If demand follows typical seasonality, we would expect even further rate volatility to close out 2026," the report said, according to FreightWaves.
Watch List
- Sequential momentum in RXO's spot rate index through Q3, already up 43% year over year.
- Whether contract rates catch up to spot rates; Cass data shows contract rates up 6% in Q2 versus spot at 32.4%.
- Schneider National's movement of additional equipment into the spot market after losing a large dedicated customer.
- Werner's Q3 rate-per-mile forecast of 10% to 13% year-over-year growth.
- Retail same-store sales and inventory levels as indicators of peak-season demand, with RXO citing "healthy" inventories.
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