Freight volumes and costs are moving in opposite directions, with spot rates surging 31% year-over-year according to the latest U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index, a quarterly collaboration between U.S. Bank and DAT Freight & Analytics. The report shows the truck freight market repricing from the supply side: capacity tightening and a shrinking contract-to-spot buffer are pushing costs higher before any meaningful recovery in demand has taken hold.
The Numbers: Spot vs Contract Rates
The index provides stark data for May 2026. Dry van spot rates reached $2.14 per mile, up 31.29% year-over-year and 9.74% month-over-month. Contract rates hit $2.18 per mile, up 9.00% year-over-year. Meanwhile, spot shipments fell to 1.11 million in May from 1.31 million in April.
| Metric | May 2026 | YoY Change | MoM Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dry van spot rate | $2.14/mile | +31.29% | +9.74% |
| Contract rate | $2.18/mile | +9.00% | N/A |
| Spot shipments | 1.11 million | N/A | Declined from 1.31M |
"Freight volumes may appear stable, but costs are telling a different story," said Alex Terry, director of transportation at Veritiv. "As contract rates catch up to spot pricing, shippers face growing exposure to higher transportation spend."
The Narrowing Spread and Supply-Side Dynamics
One critical signal in the report is the compression of the contract freight premium. The spread between contract and spot rates narrowed from approximately $0.39 per mile to about $0.11. This eliminates most of the cushion shippers historically used to manage cost exposure. As spot rates approach contract levels, routing guide alternatives become less effective.
The report frames this as a supply-side story. Linehaul pricing has increased more than fuel costs, indicating that capacity dynamics, not surcharge inflation, are driving the reset. Rates moved higher even as volumes declined. The index describes that divergence as "a clear indicator of a supply-led transition in the market."
LTL Pricing Holds Ground
Less-than-truckload (LTL) pricing shows resilience. Old Dominion reported first-quarter LTL shipments per day declined 7.9% year-over-year, yet revenue per hundredweight excluding fuel increased 4.4%. XPO posted a similar result, with North American LTL yield excluding fuel up 4.0% and shipments per day rising 3.0%. These results show pricing discipline over volume chasing, attributed to the structural mechanics of LTL pricing.
Implications for Shippers
The report's practical takeaway lands directly on shipper budgets. In the current environment, freight can feel operationally stable while transportation spending climbs. The index recommends monitoring spot-to-contract relationships closely, aligning routing guides with actual carrier behavior, and stress-testing budgets for continued upward pressure in contract pricing. The warning comes with additional concern: contract rates still have room to move. Spot markets repriced first, and contract rates are following with a lag. That lag does not protect shippers – it only delays when the cost arrives. "As contract rates continue to catch up to spot, cost exposure may increase even without a corresponding increase in shipment activity," the report states.
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