The truckload market is poised for a prolonged period of rate hikes as capacity continues to tighten, according to a FreightWaves report. Large, well-capitalized carriers are benefiting from a pronounced shift in truck capacity, while shippers that failed to foster sustainable partnerships during the multiyear freight recession face significant risks.
Regulatory and cost pressures drive capacity purge
The capacity levers pulling in favor of large carriers began last year with stricter enforcement of non-domiciled CDL rules and English-language proficiency requirements, as well as crackdowns on shady driver schools and ELD providers. In recent weeks, capacity constraints have ramped further: federal authorities are now more strictly enforcing cabotage rules and revoking visas. Additionally, the impact of the Supreme Court’s broker liability ruling on driver vetting and insurance requirements is still being contemplated across the industry. FreightWaves reported that analysts contend the net effect of these regulations will purge hundreds of thousands of noncompliant drivers, allowing legally operating carriers to recoup pricing and restore margins.
“This industry is behind. It’s been four years in a cost-inflationary environment and a rate-deflationary environment. The industry is still not healthy.” — Spencer Frazier, executive vice president of sales and marketing at J.B. Hunt Transport Services (NASDAQ: JBHT), during a Wells Fargo investor conference in Chicago.
Frazier noted that most fleets haven’t generated the returns needed to reinvest in their networks, leading to a steady drumbeat of carrier bankruptcies. He said all TL operating expense lines are up roughly 30% to 50% over the past five years while rates have been declining, adding, “So, the industry has a catch-up period from a cost perspective to go through.”
Contract rates surge amid crumbling routing guides
Most carriers raised bid season expectations during the first-quarter earnings season (ended early May). Entering the year, the group had targeted low- to mid-single-digit rate increases, but a tightening supply side now has it calling for mid- to high-single-digit increases, with some shippers seeing double-digit rate hikes. Management teams from Schneider National (NYSE: SNDR) and Werner Enterprises (NASDAQ: WERN) said at the Tuesday event that contract rates set early in the 2026 bid season aren’t holding. Mini-bid activity has spiked, and some shippers have been forced to rebid their entire book as tender rejections surge.
| Metric | May 2026 Trend |
|---|---|
| Spot rates | Jumped ahead of and after Roadcheck |
| One-way contractual renewals (Werner) | Accelerating through bid season; mid-single-digit increases earlier, now higher |
| Rate hikes forecast | Cumulative 20% over next two years (J.B. Hunt) |
Werner reported that one-way contractual renewals have continued to accelerate through bid season after yielding mid-single-digit increases earlier in the year. The company renegotiates one-fourth of its contracts in the first quarter and roughly one-third in the second quarter. Revenue per total mile is forecast to increase between 1% and 4% year over year in the second quarter, which seems conservative given the 3.6% increase it booked in the first quarter. Utilization has been the bigger lever for Werner: most public carriers have held off on incremental equipment additions, instead increasing paid miles through better freight selection, load planning and route optimization. Revenue per truck per week was nearly 10% higher y/y at Werner’s one-way fleet in the first quarter, as miles per truck increased 5.7%.
Implications for shippers and operators
For logistics managers and freight forwarders, the message
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