For supply chain leaders, the steady lengthening of tender lead times is not just a metric—it's a window into how shippers are recalibrating their planning in an era of persistent uncertainty. The gap between when a load is tendered and when it is needed for pickup has widened for six consecutive years, according to data from SONAR's Tender Lead Time index (STLT.USA).
Six-Year Upward Drift
The STLT index, which tracks the number of days between tender and requested pickup, currently stands at 3.74 days, against a running average of 3.37 from 2022 through 2025, FreightWaves reported. The most recent year's trend is tracking above every prior year at the same calendar point, including a sharp late-year spike that pushed past 4.5 days before settling back. Historically, ample capacity used to shrink lead times, but that pattern has broken down even in periods of loose capacity.
What's Driving the Trend
Seasonal spikes around early summer and the holidays (Thanksgiving and Christmas) are predictable, as shippers front-load tenders when staffing thins. But the underlying trendline is creeping upward independent of those events. According to FreightWaves market analyst Zach Strickland, some of the increase reflects genuinely improved planning—better forecasting tools and tighter S&OP processes mean shippers know volumes further in advance. However, lead times have also lengthened during years when rejection rates barely moved, suggesting factors beyond pure capacity anxiety. Trade policy volatility and pulled-forward import activity in recent years gave shippers extra buffer time before domestic moves, and that cushion has persisted.
Implications for Shippers and Carriers
| Stakeholder | Effect |
|---|---|
| Carriers | More lead time enables better equipment positioning, fewer scrambles, and theoretically fewer service failures. |
| Shippers | Longer lead times increase ability to shift freight onto intermodal, eroding urgency that favors trucking. This dynamic is reflected in rapid growth of domestic intermodal usage. |
| Market | Longer lead times theoretically reduce rejections, softening the market. |
For shippers, the extended lead time signals how much slack exists in their planning. FreightWaves noted that shippers have been forced to make upstream supply chains more resilient to trade policy shifts and geopolitical disruptions, often holding more inventory than strictly needed, which gives them more time to ship downstream.
Tariff and Geopolitical Overlay
A new round of Section 301 tariffs went into effect on Friday, replacing prior temporary ones, and the administration has numerous additional tariffs in the pipeline. Such policy moves—along with ongoing Middle East disruptions—have driven the need for inventory buffers that in turn extend lead times.
What This Means for Your Procurement Team
The persistent climb in tender lead times should prompt procurement teams to evaluate their own planning horizons. If your lead times are below the current average, you may be relying on spot market capacity that is becoming less reliable. Using the STLT index as a benchmark, assess whether your internal S&OP cycles are aligned with industry trends. Longer lead times also create opportunities to shift to intermodal where door-to-door service meets requirements, but that requires advance planning. Monitor rejection rates and capacity conditions in SONAR to avoid overcorrecting. With tariffs set to multiply, expect lead times to remain elevated as shippers maintain inventory buffers for the foreseeable future.
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