The North East of Scotland's offshore energy workforce is approaching a cliff edge that could permanently damage the region's ability to support both oil and gas and renewables supply chains. A new report from the Robert Gordon University's Energy Transition Institute warns that the period to 2030 will define the region's energy economy for a generation, with failure risking a permanent loss of skills and capability built over decades of North Sea activity.
Workforce Numbers and Trends
The 'Delivering Positive Energy' report details the current state and projected decline of the offshore energy workforce in the North East of Scotland. The region hosts about one in three of the UK's 115,000 offshore oil and gas jobs and one in four of the 154,000 offshore energy roles. Critically, 90% of the local offshore energy workforce remains in oil and gas, with only 10% in renewables.
| Metric | Figure |
|---|---|
| Regional offshore energy workforce in 2016 | ~56,000 |
| Regional offshore energy workforce in 2024 | ~42,200 |
| Projected job losses by 2035 (additional) | ~18,000 (average 1,600/year) |
| Share of local workforce in oil & gas | 90% |
| Share in renewables | 10% |
The total offshore energy workforce in the region has already fallen from roughly 56,000 in 2016 to about 42,200 in 2024, equivalent to around one in six of the working population. Looking ahead, the institute warns that, depending on future investment, the offshore energy workforce could shrink by a further 18,000 jobs by 2035, averaging around 1,600 roles per year.
The 'Goldilocks Zone'
The report labels the coming five-year period as a "Goldilocks zone", in which declining oil and gas employment must be matched by growth in renewables to avoid a lasting skills drain. It stresses that preventing offshore energy job losses should take priority over simply mitigating their consequences.
The economic weight of each offshore role is substantial. Regional offshore energy salaries are typically up to twice average income levels in the North East, meaning that each lost job carries significant economic weight. The report notes that replacing the value of a single offshore role would require multiple new jobs elsewhere in the economy.
"With the right policy framework, decisions and sustained investor confidence, there are viable pathways to manage a transition that sustains regional jobs and economic activity." – Delivering Positive Energy report
Regional Advantages and Risks
Despite the risks, the institute argues that the region has strong advantages as a multi-energy hub, citing a skilled workforce, an established supply chain, relatively low commercial rents and house prices, strong transport links, and a proven energy ecosystem. These strengths could allow the North East to reinvent itself as a multi-energy hub, capturing emerging renewables opportunities across the UK and North West Europe. However, failure to act risks a permanent loss of capability.
Supply Chain Implications for Procurement Leaders
For chief supply chain officers and procurement directors dependent on the North Sea basin for energy components, engineering services, or project support, the workforce cliff edge represents a direct supply risk. An established supply chain is only as strong as the skilled labour that underpins it. The projected loss of 1,600 roles per year—each with above-average productivity and wages—signals potential capacity constraints, rising labour costs, and project delays for offshore wind, carbon capture, and oil and gas decommissioning programmes.
The report calls for a coordinated approach that blends private capital to build capability and scale with targeted public investment to cut uncertainty and give investors the confidence to commit at the pace the transition demands. Procurement teams should monitor workforce trends in the North East closely, as a failure to retain talent could ripple through the entire energy supply chain, affecting lead times and pricing for offshore equipment and services.
The coming five years are decisive. As the institute warns, the choices made now will shape the region's—and the UK's—energy supply chain for a generation.
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