According to analysts quoted by The Hindu BusinessLine, crude oil prices, geopolitical tensions in West Asia, and upcoming inflation data will dictate stock market direction this week. Developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, foreign investor trading activity, and domestic quarterly earnings will also remain key monitorables for the Indian stock market, experts added.
West Asia and US inflation in focus
Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, an online trading and wealth tech firm, said the week is likely to be shaped by two dominant themes: developments in the Middle East and the July US inflation report. "Attention will remain firmly focused on the Middle East, where negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz remain fluid," he said. He added that the July US inflation report will be the key global event in the week ahead on the macroeconomic front, while crude oil will remain another key monitorable for Indian markets.
Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd – said global market participants will continue to monitor developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, movements in crude oil prices, and broader geopolitical negotiations involving Iran.
India's data calendar and global releases
Santosh Meena, Head of Research at Swastika Investmart Ltd, outlined the macroeconomic schedule: "The week will also be important from a macroeconomic perspective, with India scheduled to release CPI inflation on August 12 and WPI inflation on August 14. In the US, CPI and PPI data will be released on August 12 and 13, respectively."
| Data release | Country | Date |
|---|---|---|
| CPI inflation | India | August 12 |
| WPI inflation | India | August 14 |
| CPI | United States | August 12 |
| Producer Price Index (PPI) | United States | August 13 |
Mishra added that domestically, investors will closely monitor the July CPI inflation print, WPI inflation, and the latest foreign exchange reserves data for fresh insights into inflation trends and external sector stability.
Q1 FY27 earnings season
The domestic earnings season will gather further momentum, with several companies, including HAL, Bharat Forge, Grasim Industries, and Tata Motors, scheduled to announce their quarterly results, according to Mishra. These results come as part of the Q1 FY27 earnings season.
Last week's market action
Last week, the BSE benchmark Sensex climbed 404.53 points, or 0.51 per cent, and the NSE Nifty went up by 187.05 points, or 0.76 per cent, according to the report. Meanwhile, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) maintained their buying spree in Indian equities, investing Rs 12,921 crore in the first week of August.
"Markets ended the week with modest gains despite heightened volatility, as investors navigated the roll-out of the new Closing Auction Session (CAS) framework for F&O stocks, the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy decision, and lingering geopolitical uncertainties." – Ajit Mishra
Meena noted that the closing auction session remained the key highlight of the last week, as it was the first week of the new CAS system.
Outlook for the week
Analysts cited in the report said the combination of geopolitical risk, crude price movements, and inflation prints will keep markets on edge. With FPI inflows of Rs 12,921 crore in the first week of August and earnings from key names such as Tata Motors and Grasim Industries due, trading activity is expected to be driven by stock-specific cues. The July US inflation report and India's CPI release on August 12 are the key data points to watch, according to the analysts.
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