The 2026 South-West monsoon season in India has opened on a weak note, with the country recording a 40 per cent deficient rainfall in June, according to The Hindu Business Line. However, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) expects the monsoon to progress, beginning this week. The event most tracked by India Inc and investors—the onset and progression of the South-West monsoon—is now clouded by the strengthening El Nino, which several global weather agencies have confirmed.
Monsoon Deficiency and El Nino Intensity
The South-West monsoon, which accounts for nearly two-thirds of India's annual rainfall, is facing a dual threat: a delayed onset and a likely moderate-to-severe El Nino event. As per sea-surface temperature (SST) data published by the IMD, the SST value was -0.1 for the March-May period, a rise from -0.9 in December-February. Critically, the Columbia Climate School's Nino 3.4 Index shows the SST anomaly has increased swiftly: from 0.48°C in March-May to 0.94°C by May, and further to 1.7°C by June 17. The article notes that an SST value above 0.5 for five consecutive three-month overlapping seasons indicates a weak El Nino; between 0.5 and 1.5 is moderate; above 1.5 is strong. This suggests a strong possibility of a moderate-to-severe El Nino this season. Multiple agencies, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), have confirmed the event.
| Period | Nino 3.4 SST Anomaly (°C) | El Nino Category |
|---|---|---|
| March-May | 0.48 | Near-threshold |
| May | 0.94 | Moderate |
| June 17 | 1.7 | Strong |
Indian Ocean Dipole and Other Factors
The article highlights that El Nino is not the only determinant of monsoon performance. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)—a climate phenomenon caused by variations in sea temperatures in the Indian Ocean—is now showing a swing towards the negative zone, with the May IOD at -0.39 on the IMD website. A negative IOD typically results in lower seasonal rainfall for India. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a shorter-term 60-day phenomenon, does not yet present clear indications. Historical context from the article shows that even moderate El Nino years like 2015 produced a rainfall deficit of 12.7% of the Long Period Average (LPA), while drought years like 2009 were not El Nino years at all, underscoring the complexity of monsoon variability.
Government Response and Agricultural Impact
The Indian government has launched an emergency plan to protect crops in 315 districts that have irrigation infrastructure gaps and significant rainfall deficiency. According to the article, the farming community is preparing for the worst. This raises the risk profile for agricultural commodities such as sugarcane, rice, pulses, and oilseeds that are highly dependent on monsoon rains. The deficient June rainfall and the ominous El Nino trajectory suggest that kharif sowing may be delayed or reduced, potentially tightening supplies later in the year.
Implications for Commodity Markets
For commodity traders and procurement teams, the weak monsoon start and the strong El Nino signal introduce significant upside risk for crop prices. The government's emergency plan covers nearly 45% of India's districts, highlighting the breadth of the potential shortfall. While the IMD forecasts widespread rainfall this week supported by a 'low' formation, the July rainfall progress remains extremely crucial. If the rainfall deficit persists, India may need to import more grains or edible oils, boosting global prices. Conversely, if the monsoon revives, the bearish pressure could ease. The interplay of El Nino, IOD, and MJO will determine the final outcome, and market participants should closely monitor weekly IMD updates and SST data releases.
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