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weather
Commodities India's soyabean acreage recovers as July rains boost Kharif sowing
India's soyabean acreage for Kharif 2026 reached 117.68 lakh ha by July 31, down 0.70% from a year earlier, according to Agriculture Ministry data. July rains boosted sowing in Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Telangana, Uttar Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh, while SOPA pegged the crop area at 117.13 lakh ha. Crop condition is normal to good, with flowering underway.
Commodities India monsoon deficit narrows to 13% after July surplus; IMD predicts below-normal August rain
India's monsoon rainfall deficit narrowed to 13% in June–July after July posted a 1% surplus, but IMD has forecast below-normal August rain. Regional discrepancies are wide, with the south peninsula and east/north-east recording large shortfalls.
Commodities India’s cotton sowing crosses 100 lakh hectares as monsoon picks up, area expands in key states
India’s cotton sowing area has crossed 100 lakh hectares as the monsoon gathers pace across key producing states. Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh have recorded increases compared to last year. Stakeholders report good crop condition and expect the area to surpass last year’s levels, with sowing window extended to August 25.
Commodities Monsoon Revival Defies July Fade-Out Forecast as Deep Depression Strengthens in Bay of Bengal
The Indian monsoon is staging a strong revival in late July, defying forecasts of a fade-out, as a deep depression in the Bay of Bengal drives widespread rainfall. National rainfall deficit improved to -15%, with Central India near normal at -3%. However, the resurgence has caused severe floods in Assam, with 68 casualties and over 6.5 lakh affected, alongside agricultural damage.
Commodities 10% Monsoon Deficit Hits Kharif Output: Government Warns of Production Decline Risks
The Indian government stated that kharif foodgrain production declines when the all-India monsoon rainfall deficiency exceeds about 10%, citing major drought/El Niño years. Meanwhile, cotton production has fallen due to diversification, while spices parks processed over 52,000 tonnes and e-NAM interstate trade surged.
Commodities Indian rice export prices hit near 10-month high on tight paddy supplies and monsoon concerns
Indian rice export prices rose to a near 10-month high this week, driven by tight paddy supplies and concerns over the new-season crop after patchy monsoon rainfall, according to Reuters. The 5% broken parboiled variety was quoted at $356-$361 per ton, up from $352-$357 last week. Adverse weather also affected crops in Bangladesh, while Vietnam saw lower prices due to building supplies from the summer-autumn harvest.
Commodities NOAA Predicts 97% Chance Strong El Niño Will Persist Through March 2027
The US Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of NOAA has released an ENSO update forecasting a 97% chance that the current strong El Niño will continue into early spring 2027. The report details ocean temperature anomalies, atmospheric circulation shifts, and probability breakdowns, critical for agricultural and energy commodity traders.
Commodities Gujarat Records 33% Rainfall Deficit Yet Kharif Sowing Crosses 50 Lakh Hectares
Gujarat has recorded a 33% rainfall deficit, yet kharif sowing has reached 50.83 lakh hectares, about 60% of the three-year average. The deficit has caused lower acreage for water-intensive crops like cotton (-4.3%), groundnut (-15%), and paddy (-34%), while soybean and pulses have seen increases. Eight districts face large deficient rainfall, and 14 others report deficits.
Commodities El Niño Warning: Why India Must Regenerate Its Agriculture Now
El Niño, caused by warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, weakens the Indian monsoon, leading to below-normal rainfall and dry spells. Indian agriculture has lost resilience due to synthetic inputs, monocropping, and soil degradation. Regenerative agriculture—restoring soil health, biodiversity, water management, and community institutions—is key to climate-proofing farms.
Commodities Wheat Production Likely Affected by Climate This Year, Experts Warn at Conclave
At the Wheat Products Promotion Society CEO Conclave in Varanasi, experts warned that El Nino could impact wheat production this year, with delayed kharif harvest and potential drought. Despite geopolitical tensions, global wheat markets remain well supplied, anchored by Black Sea region stocks, limiting price rises.
Commodities Central India Rain Deficit Marginally Down as Monsoon Revives Over Past Two Days
The monsoon has revived over the past two days, reducing Central India's rainfall deficit to below 60%. The all-India shortfall remains at 42%, but forecasters expect a stronger monsoon phase next week aided by a likely low-pressure area off the Odisha-Andhra Pradesh coast. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) provide detailed regional outlooks.
Commodities India Monsoon Deficit Narrows Sharply but Weak Kharif Sowing Persists: Report
India's monsoon deficit has narrowed sharply to 15% below normal from 38% a week earlier, driven by 45% above-normal rainfall. However, Kharif sowing remains significantly behind last year's pace, with total sowing down 20.8% year-on-year, posing risks for agricultural production. Reservoir levels improved but are still 36% lower than last year.
Commodities El Niño Disrupts Pacific Fisheries, Canceling Peru Anchovy Season and Boosting Tuna Catches
The 2026 'super' El Niño is already affecting Pacific fisheries dramatically. Peru has effectively canceled its anchovy fishing season due to warm waters driving fish deeper, while Southern California sees record tuna catches. Seafood prices are rising in local markets, with Peruvian jack mackerel and corvina prices doubling.
Technology Jackery 2000 Plus Power Station Discounted for Prime Day Provides Home Backup Against Summer Storms
The Jackery 2000 Plus portable power station is currently discounted for Prime Day 2026, as reported by WIRED. It provides 2,042 watt-hours of capacity, expandable, and can power 3,000-watt devices. It serves as home backup during weather-related outages.
Commodities Reservoirs, sowing trend, next ‘low’ may disprove worst monsoon fears in India
Despite uneven June rainfall, India's reservoir storage in 166 major reservoirs stands close to normal at 47.72 billion cubic metres (bcm) as of July 2, against the normal of 48.40 bcm. A fresh low-pressure area is likely to form over the north Bay of Bengal within 5-6 days, potentially reviving widespread rainfall. Former IMD chief KJ Ramesh stresses that assessing monsoon health via reservoir storage and sowing acreages offers a truer picture than rainfall departures alone.
Business UK Heatwave Drives 300% Surge in Home Air Conditioning Inquiries, Installers Report
Record-breaking heat in the UK has driven a sharp increase in home air conditioning inquiries. Installers see inquiries up 300% over six years, and sales doubled since March. With 90% of UK homes projected to overheat by 2050, businesses are struggling to keep up with demand.
Commodities Weak Monsoon May Intensify Water Stress, Threaten Kharif Sowing: NSE Report
A weak southwest monsoon could heighten water stress in India and threaten kharif sowing over the next fortnight, according to an NSE Market Pulse report. The report warns of a fresh supply-side shock and highlights rising temperatures and increased rainfall variability, even as a positive Indian Ocean Dipole may partly offset El Nino effects.
Business India's Economy Passed the Iran War Test, But El Niño Threatens Recovery
India's economy has emerged resilient after the US-Iran conflict, with Q1 FY2026-27 high-frequency indicators like GST collections (up 13.9% to Rs 1.95 lakh crore), vehicle sales (up 22% to 2.56 million units), and industrial production (up 5.1%) flashing green. However, a poor monsoon due to El Niño threatens food inflation and could dampen the recovery.
El Niño Dry Spell Slashes India's Hydropower Generation by 21%, Strains Power Grid
India's hydropower generation plunged 21% in June year-on-year, the steepest drop since February 2024, as El Niño caused monsoon rainfall 38% below normal. Reservoir levels fell to 25% of capacity, forcing increased reliance on coal and renewables to meet record electricity demand.
Commodities Delayed Monsoon Cuts Marathwada Sowing Area by Nearly 18 Lakh Hectares
The sowing area across eight districts of Maharashtra's Marathwada region has shrunk by 17.87 lakh hectares compared to the same period last year, due to a delayed monsoon. Overall sowing is at just 58% of normal, with rainfall 13% below the expected average of 176 mm. The agriculture department advised farmers against sowing until adequate rainfall is received.
Commodities Clouded under El Nino skies: India monsoon deficit, El Nino intensity raise crop risk for commodities
The 2026 South-West monsoon in India has opened with a 40% deficient rainfall in June, while El Nino conditions intensify with SST anomaly reaching 1.7°C. The Indian government has launched an emergency plan to protect crops in 315 districts. The Indian Ocean Dipole is swinging negative, adding to concerns for agriculture and commodity markets.
Commodities Plum Harvest Begins in Kashmir Amid Hailstorm Damage and Weather Setbacks
Plum harvesting has begun in the Kashmir Valley, but repeated hailstorms have bruised the crop, forcing farmers to sell at low prices. The India Meteorological Department recorded 10-12 hailstorm spells over the past two months, damaging fruit quality. Growers warn that extreme weather threatens the livelihoods of thousands of horticulture-dependent families.
Commodities Monsoon May Deliver at Healthy Clip Till Mid-July, Falter Thereafter, IMD and ECMWF Forecasts Show
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) expects widespread monsoon rainfall across India through early July, with a cyclonic circulation likely over the north Bay of Bengal. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) projects vigorous monsoon activity in central and western regions until mid-July, after which deficits may emerge over the western half of the country.
Commodities El Nino Threatens India's Sugarcane Production, Weakening Monsoon Adds Risk
A developing El Nino weather pattern could weaken India's monsoon and weigh on sugarcane production. Industry experts warn output could drop to 390 million tonnes if July-August rainfall disappoints, tightening sugar supplies.
Commodities India Prepares District-Level Contingency Plans as Rainfall Deficit Reaches 40%
India is experiencing a 40% rainfall deficit, prompting the government to activate district-level contingency plans. Agriculture Commissioner PK Singh highlighted improved irrigation infrastructure since the 2015 El Niño and adequate rice and wheat reserves. Farmers may shift to pulses due to delayed monsoon, with imports possible if shortages arise.
Commodities El Nino and Weak Monsoon Pose Greater Threat to India Than US-Iran Conflict
India's weak monsoon, driven by El Nino, presents a more significant economic threat than the recent US-Iran conflict. Cumulative rainfall is 42% below normal, reservoir levels have dropped to 27.7% of capacity, and risks to inflation and rural incomes are mounting. Historical parallels with 2019 and 2023 offer some hope but uncertainty remains.
Commodities Central India faces critical two-week sowing window as monsoon revival offers brief relief
Satellite imagery shows monsoon revival along India's west coast, offering a two-week window (June 22-July 6) for sowing in rain-deficient Central India. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) project rainfall weakening significantly after July 6, with deficits exceeding 60% in parts of the region. Farmers face uncertainty as the best sowing opportunity narrows.
Commodities Kashmir apple farming under strain as erratic weather drives up crop risk
Erratic weather in Kashmir Valley has led to multiple hailstorms in June 2026, causing significant damage to apple orchards in key districts like Kulgam and Shopian. Growers report an unprecedented frequency of hailstorms, with estimated crop damage of 70-80%, while farmers seek government support for protective measures such as anti-hail nets.
Commodities Weak Monsoon Start Clouds Kharif Season Outlook, 360 ONE Capital Warns
India's southwest monsoon has begun the 2026 season with a significant rainfall deficit, 38% below normal as of June 17. Kharif sowing has fallen 3.9% year-on-year, with pulses and cotton hit hardest. Reservoir levels remain a healthy buffer, but close monitoring is needed as the critical July-August period approaches.
Commodities Milk Prices May Rise Again by July as El Niño Threatens Fodder Supply
Milk prices in India, already raised 2-3% in May by major dairies, may increase another 3-4% by July or August if El Niño conditions and deficient monsoon worsen fodder shortages and impact milk production, according to dairy industry executives. Companies like Amul, Mother Dairy, and Parag Milk Foods are monitoring the situation, while the Maharashtra government has urged farmers to boost fodder production.
MINI Bay System May Open Two-Week Rain Window Across Central India
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) indicates favourable conditions for monsoon progression into Central India around next Tuesday, driven by a cyclonic circulation over the Bay of Bengal. Model consensus suggests a two-week period of enhanced rainfall, with detailed regional forecasts for the coming days.
Commodities Weak monsoon set to dent India’s 2026-27 coffee prospects
The weak onset of the southwest monsoon in India's key coffee-growing regions of Kodagu, Chikmagaluru, Hassan, and Wayanad has raised concerns over the 2026-27 coffee crop. Cumulative rainfall deficits range from 29% to 45% in June 1-17, hurting berry development and increasing pest infestations. The USDA projects a 4% drop in output to 6.14 million bags, while the Coffee Board is yet to release its estimates.
Logistics Shipping Braces for Monster El Niño as NOAA Warns of Record-Intensity Event Threatening Global Trade Lanes
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has declared El Niño, with an 88% chance of reaching strong intensity by November–January, posing direct risks to shipping via Panama Canal draft restrictions, altered hurricane patterns, and shifts in dry bulk trade flows. The Panama Canal Authority has already pre-emptively reduced neopanamax draft to 49.5 feet effective July 3, citing potential El Niño development.
Commodities Monsoon delay in Gujarat deepens farm risk; crop-loss compensation crosses ₹22,733 crore in a decade
Gujarat has recorded an 83% rainfall deficit as of June 16, 2026, with nine districts in Saurashtra reporting a 100% deficit. The state has paid out ₹22,733 crore in crop-loss compensation between FY16 and FY26, with nearly half paid in FY26 alone. Farmers have sown 4.27 lakh hectares so far, led by cotton and groundnut, but moisture stress threatens early crops.
Commodities APEC Climate Center Upgrades El Niño to Strong; Indian Monsoon Faces Elevated Risk
The APEC Climate Centre (APCC) has upgraded its El Niño outlook to a strong event, with a 100% probability of persistence from July through December. The Niño 3.4 index is forecast to reach 1.97°C in July and 3.14°C by December. For India, the south-west monsoon faces elevated risk with projected rainfall deficits up to 53.8% during July-September, though regional variations exist. The outlook improves for October-December.
Commodities El Nino to Severely Impact 9-10 Indian States; Chouhan Directs District-Level Kharif Contingency Plans
Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan on Tuesday directed coordinated meetings with district officials in 9-10 states where El Nino impact is expected to be relatively severe during the Kharif season. The government is preparing contingency plans including water conservation, intercropping, and alternative crops, with emphasis on boosting cotton and pulses output.
Commodities India Receives 32% Deficient Rains During June 1-15, IMD Data Shows
India recorded 42.4 mm of rainfall from June 1-15, 32% below the normal of 62.1 mm, according to the India Meteorological Department. Central India saw the largest deficit at 57%, while North-West India had an 8% surplus. Monsoon advancement continues slowly.
Commodities El Nino May Weaken India's Monsoon, Threaten Rice and Maize Output, FAO Warns
The FAO has warned that the newly begun El Nino phase may weaken India's summer monsoon, putting rainfed crops like rice and maize under stress during the kharif season. Historical analysis shows that during the 2015-16 El Nino, India's maize output fell by 4% and rice dropped by 1%, while Southeast Asia lost about 15 million tonnes of rice. The agency also flagged that disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are raising energy and fertiliser costs as farmers prepare for sowing.
Commodities El Niño Onset Confirmed: 63% Chance of Super Event by Winter
NOAA officially declared El Niño onset on June 11, 2026, with a 63% chance of reaching super El Niño strength by winter. The event threatens drought in key agricultural regions including Indonesia, the Sahel, and Southern Africa, while India's monsoon forecast has been lowered to 90% of normal.
Commodities IMD Update: Heavy Rain to Revive Goa, Karnataka, Mumbai & Gujarat on June 22-23
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts a revival of heavy rainfall along the west coast around June 22-23, based on guidance from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The fresh spell is expected to start over Coastal Karnataka and Goa before spreading north to Konkan, Mumbai, and south Gujarat. Meanwhile, widespread rainfall continues over eastern India due to a trough extending from Punjab to West Bengal.
Commodities May 2026 SST Ties for Second Warmest on Record
May 2026 recorded the second warmest sea surface temperature globally, at 20.90°C, just behind May 2024. This trend is significant for energy markets as it influences weather patterns and energy demand.
Commodities Monsoon Stalls: Rain Deficit Deepens in West India
The monsoon has stalled along India's coast, leading to a significant rain deficit in West India. Key regions like Saurashtra and Kutch are experiencing over 60% below-normal rainfall.
Commodities India's Monsoon Boosted by IoD Amid El Nino Concerns
India's monsoon season could see improved rainfall due to a potential positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IoD) event, despite the looming threat of El Nino. The Bureau of Meteorology reports sea surface temperatures have crossed the El Nino threshold, but a positive IoD could enhance monsoon rains.
Commodities Monsoon Slowdown Expected in North-West India Due to Western Disturbance
The monsoon in north-west India is expected to slow down due to a western disturbance, affecting agricultural activities. Heavy rainfall remains concentrated along the west coast, but a slowdown is anticipated in the coming days.
Commodities Monsoon Advances Amid Strengthening El Niño Signals
The Indian monsoon has advanced further, covering key agricultural regions, while El Niño signals strengthen, potentially impacting crop yields. Traders are closely monitoring these developments.
Commodities Delayed Monsoon Affects Indian Agriculture Markets
The delayed monsoon in India, influenced by El Niño, is impacting agricultural commodity markets. Key regions like Gujarat and Rajasthan face below-normal rainfall, affecting crop forecasts.
Commodities Assam's Second Flush Tea Prices Surge on Quality Boost
Assam's second flush tea prices have surged due to favorable weather conditions leading to high-quality production. The average price at the Guwahati auction center rose significantly, reflecting strong demand.
Commodities India's South-West Monsoon Begins Over Kerala
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Commodities Monsoon Relief Expected in Tamil Nadu
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Commodities India Lowers Foodgrain Output Target Amid Monsoon Concerns
India has reduced its foodgrain output target for the 2026-27 crop year to 373.93 million tonnes, citing concerns over a below-normal monsoon forecast. The decision reflects potential impacts from El Nino, affecting rice and maize production.
Trade Kerala Monsoon Onset Delayed, Rainfall 55% Below Normal
The India Meteorological Department forecasts a delayed monsoon onset over Kerala on June 4, with initial rainfall 55% below normal. This weather pattern could impact agricultural trade and import/export activities in India.
Commodities El Nino Threatens Global Agriculture with Rising Temperatures
El Nino's potential emergence in 2026 poses significant risks to global agriculture due to rising temperatures and altered precipitation patterns. Commodity markets are bracing for potential disruptions in supply and demand dynamics.
Commodities Monsoon Delays Impact Kerala's Agricultural Markets
The delayed monsoon onset in Kerala is affecting agricultural commodity markets, with potential impacts on crop yields and prices. Traders are closely monitoring weather forecasts and market reactions.
Commodities Below-Normal Monsoon Forecast Threatens Indian Agriculture
The India Meteorological Department forecasts below-normal monsoon rainfall and above-normal heatwaves in June, impacting key agricultural regions. This development could significantly affect commodity markets, particularly for crops like rice and wheat.
Business Monsoon Delays Could Impact Indian Agriculture and Economy
The delayed onset of the monsoon in India, as forecasted by the IMD, could have significant implications for the agricultural sector and broader economic conditions. This delay is attributed to disrupted atmospheric conditions and a developing storm system.
Commodities El Niño Threatens Indian Monsoon, Impact on Crop Prices Looms
The potential emergence of El Niño by June, as forecasted by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, poses a significant threat to the Indian monsoon, potentially affecting crop yields and prices. The Indian Meteorological Department predicts below-normal rainfall, which could lead to lower production of key crops like paddy and pulses.
Trade Monsoon Alert: Sri Lanka Hit, Kerala Next
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Trade UN Warns of Record Heat Impacting Global Trade
The UN projects record-breaking global temperatures over the next five years, posing significant risks to international trade. Importers and exporters must prepare for potential disruptions due to extreme weather events.
Commodities India Prepares for El Niño Impact on Kharif Season Amid Monsoon Concerns
India's Agriculture Minister announced contingency plans to mitigate El Niño's potential impact on the Kharif season. With monsoon rains predicted to be below normal, the government is ensuring seed availability for alternative cropping strategies.
Commodities India's Monsoon Forecast: Below Normal at 90% LPA in 2026
The India Meteorological Department forecasts a below-normal monsoon for 2026, with rainfall at 90% of the long period average. This could significantly impact agricultural output in key regions.