Topic
weather
Logistics Shipping Braces for Monster El Niño as NOAA Warns of Record-Intensity Event Threatening Global Trade Lanes
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has declared El Niño, with an 88% chance of reaching strong intensity by November–January, posing direct risks to shipping via Panama Canal draft restrictions, altered hurricane patterns, and shifts in dry bulk trade flows. The Panama Canal Authority has already pre-emptively reduced neopanamax draft to 49.5 feet effective July 3, citing potential El Niño development.
Commodities Monsoon delay in Gujarat deepens farm risk; crop-loss compensation crosses ₹22,733 crore in a decade
Gujarat has recorded an 83% rainfall deficit as of June 16, 2026, with nine districts in Saurashtra reporting a 100% deficit. The state has paid out ₹22,733 crore in crop-loss compensation between FY16 and FY26, with nearly half paid in FY26 alone. Farmers have sown 4.27 lakh hectares so far, led by cotton and groundnut, but moisture stress threatens early crops.
Commodities APEC Climate Center Upgrades El Niño to Strong; Indian Monsoon Faces Elevated Risk
The APEC Climate Centre (APCC) has upgraded its El Niño outlook to a strong event, with a 100% probability of persistence from July through December. The Niño 3.4 index is forecast to reach 1.97°C in July and 3.14°C by December. For India, the south-west monsoon faces elevated risk with projected rainfall deficits up to 53.8% during July-September, though regional variations exist. The outlook improves for October-December.
Commodities El Nino to Severely Impact 9-10 Indian States; Chouhan Directs District-Level Kharif Contingency Plans
Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan on Tuesday directed coordinated meetings with district officials in 9-10 states where El Nino impact is expected to be relatively severe during the Kharif season. The government is preparing contingency plans including water conservation, intercropping, and alternative crops, with emphasis on boosting cotton and pulses output.
Commodities India Receives 32% Deficient Rains During June 1-15, IMD Data Shows
India recorded 42.4 mm of rainfall from June 1-15, 32% below the normal of 62.1 mm, according to the India Meteorological Department. Central India saw the largest deficit at 57%, while North-West India had an 8% surplus. Monsoon advancement continues slowly.
Commodities El Nino May Weaken India's Monsoon, Threaten Rice and Maize Output, FAO Warns
The FAO has warned that the newly begun El Nino phase may weaken India's summer monsoon, putting rainfed crops like rice and maize under stress during the kharif season. Historical analysis shows that during the 2015-16 El Nino, India's maize output fell by 4% and rice dropped by 1%, while Southeast Asia lost about 15 million tonnes of rice. The agency also flagged that disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are raising energy and fertiliser costs as farmers prepare for sowing.
Commodities El Niño Onset Confirmed: 63% Chance of Super Event by Winter
NOAA officially declared El Niño onset on June 11, 2026, with a 63% chance of reaching super El Niño strength by winter. The event threatens drought in key agricultural regions including Indonesia, the Sahel, and Southern Africa, while India's monsoon forecast has been lowered to 90% of normal.
Commodities IMD Update: Heavy Rain to Revive Goa, Karnataka, Mumbai & Gujarat on June 22-23
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts a revival of heavy rainfall along the west coast around June 22-23, based on guidance from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The fresh spell is expected to start over Coastal Karnataka and Goa before spreading north to Konkan, Mumbai, and south Gujarat. Meanwhile, widespread rainfall continues over eastern India due to a trough extending from Punjab to West Bengal.
Commodities May 2026 SST Ties for Second Warmest on Record
May 2026 recorded the second warmest sea surface temperature globally, at 20.90°C, just behind May 2024. This trend is significant for energy markets as it influences weather patterns and energy demand.
Commodities Monsoon Stalls: Rain Deficit Deepens in West India
The monsoon has stalled along India's coast, leading to a significant rain deficit in West India. Key regions like Saurashtra and Kutch are experiencing over 60% below-normal rainfall.
Commodities India's Monsoon Boosted by IoD Amid El Nino Concerns
India's monsoon season could see improved rainfall due to a potential positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IoD) event, despite the looming threat of El Nino. The Bureau of Meteorology reports sea surface temperatures have crossed the El Nino threshold, but a positive IoD could enhance monsoon rains.
Commodities Monsoon Slowdown Expected in North-West India Due to Western Disturbance
The monsoon in north-west India is expected to slow down due to a western disturbance, affecting agricultural activities. Heavy rainfall remains concentrated along the west coast, but a slowdown is anticipated in the coming days.
Commodities Monsoon Advances Amid Strengthening El Niño Signals
The Indian monsoon has advanced further, covering key agricultural regions, while El Niño signals strengthen, potentially impacting crop yields. Traders are closely monitoring these developments.
Commodities Delayed Monsoon Affects Indian Agriculture Markets
The delayed monsoon in India, influenced by El Niño, is impacting agricultural commodity markets. Key regions like Gujarat and Rajasthan face below-normal rainfall, affecting crop forecasts.
Commodities Assam's Second Flush Tea Prices Surge on Quality Boost
Assam's second flush tea prices have surged due to favorable weather conditions leading to high-quality production. The average price at the Guwahati auction center rose significantly, reflecting strong demand.
Commodities India's South-West Monsoon Begins Over Kerala
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Commodities Monsoon Relief Expected in Tamil Nadu
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Commodities India Lowers Foodgrain Output Target Amid Monsoon Concerns
India has reduced its foodgrain output target for the 2026-27 crop year to 373.93 million tonnes, citing concerns over a below-normal monsoon forecast. The decision reflects potential impacts from El Nino, affecting rice and maize production.
Trade Kerala Monsoon Onset Delayed, Rainfall 55% Below Normal
The India Meteorological Department forecasts a delayed monsoon onset over Kerala on June 4, with initial rainfall 55% below normal. This weather pattern could impact agricultural trade and import/export activities in India.
Commodities El Nino Threatens Global Agriculture with Rising Temperatures
El Nino's potential emergence in 2026 poses significant risks to global agriculture due to rising temperatures and altered precipitation patterns. Commodity markets are bracing for potential disruptions in supply and demand dynamics.
Commodities Monsoon Delays Impact Kerala's Agricultural Markets
The delayed monsoon onset in Kerala is affecting agricultural commodity markets, with potential impacts on crop yields and prices. Traders are closely monitoring weather forecasts and market reactions.
Commodities Below-Normal Monsoon Forecast Threatens Indian Agriculture
The India Meteorological Department forecasts below-normal monsoon rainfall and above-normal heatwaves in June, impacting key agricultural regions. This development could significantly affect commodity markets, particularly for crops like rice and wheat.
Business Monsoon Delays Could Impact Indian Agriculture and Economy
The delayed onset of the monsoon in India, as forecasted by the IMD, could have significant implications for the agricultural sector and broader economic conditions. This delay is attributed to disrupted atmospheric conditions and a developing storm system.
Commodities El Niño Threatens Indian Monsoon, Impact on Crop Prices Looms
The potential emergence of El Niño by June, as forecasted by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, poses a significant threat to the Indian monsoon, potentially affecting crop yields and prices. The Indian Meteorological Department predicts below-normal rainfall, which could lead to lower production of key crops like paddy and pulses.
Trade Monsoon Alert: Sri Lanka Hit, Kerala Next
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Trade UN Warns of Record Heat Impacting Global Trade
The UN projects record-breaking global temperatures over the next five years, posing significant risks to international trade. Importers and exporters must prepare for potential disruptions due to extreme weather events.
Commodities India Prepares for El Niño Impact on Kharif Season Amid Monsoon Concerns
India's Agriculture Minister announced contingency plans to mitigate El Niño's potential impact on the Kharif season. With monsoon rains predicted to be below normal, the government is ensuring seed availability for alternative cropping strategies.
Commodities India's Monsoon Forecast: Below Normal at 90% LPA in 2026
The India Meteorological Department forecasts a below-normal monsoon for 2026, with rainfall at 90% of the long period average. This could significantly impact agricultural output in key regions.
Commodities Soybean Prices Surge Amid El Nino Concerns
Soybean prices on the CME have surged due to El Nino concerns impacting crop yields. Traders are closely monitoring weather forecasts as the USDA adjusts its projections.
Trade Monsoon Delays Raise Concerns in Lakshadweep
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Trade Global temperatures to stay near record highs: WMO
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Trade Western Disturbance May Impact India's Monsoon
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Commodities India's Monsoon Shortfall Threatens Agricultural Output
India's monsoon is projected at 90% of the long-period average, marking the driest period in 11 years. This shortfall could significantly impact agricultural output.
Commodities India Prepares for Below-Normal Monsoon Impact on Agriculture
India's Agriculture Minister urges states to prepare for a below-normal monsoon, potentially affecting the Kharif season. The IMD forecasts a 90% monsoon of the long-period average, raising concerns over agricultural output.