Coconut oil and copra prices have continued their sustained downward trajectory, with coconut oil currently ruling at around ₹227 per kg in the Kerala market and copra at ₹131 per kg, according to a June 25 report by Business Line. These levels are sharply lower than the record highs of ₹393 per kg for coconut oil and ₹261 per kg for copra recorded in July 2025.
Primary driver: Bumper harvest boosts arrivals
The price decline is primarily due to increased arrivals of raw coconut across major production centres, said Thalath Mahmood, President of the Cochin Oil Merchants Association (COMA). However, he alleged that a lobby in neighbouring states is holding back copra stocks in an attempt to create an artificial shortage and push up prices. Despite this, the abundant availability resulting from higher production is likely to prevent any significant price escalation, he added.
According to K.K. Devraj, an industry consultant, poor arrivals during 2025 had propelled coconut and coconut oil prices to unprecedented levels. However, a bumper harvest during this year's peak summer season in Kerala and Tamil Nadu has dramatically altered market dynamics. Raw coconut prices, which had climbed to around ₹70-75 per kg, fell to nearly ₹40 per kg during March-May owing to heavy arrivals.
Price comparison across regions
The table below shows current prices in key markets versus the July 2025 records:
| Product | Kerala current (₹/kg) | Tamil Nadu current (₹/kg) | July 2025 record (₹/kg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coconut oil | 227 | 191.75 | 393 |
| Copra | 131 | 127 | 261 |
Supply chain dynamics: Millers benefit, retailers struggle
While farmers are struggling with rising labour costs for tree climbing, harvesting and de-husking, millers have benefited from a steady supply of copra that has enabled them to operate their processing units without interruption. Despite the easing raw material costs, millers are facing a marketing challenge. Retail offtake has slowed considerably as traders and consumers anticipate further price corrections. Frequent downward revisions in retail prices have left higher-priced stocks on store shelves, making it difficult for retailers to clear inventories before replenishing with fresh, lower-priced supplies.
| Stakeholder | Impact |
|---|---|
| Farmers | Struggling with rising labour costs; raw coconut fell from ~₹70-75/kg to ~₹40/kg |
| Millers | Steady copra supply enables uninterrupted processing; but retail offtake slow |
| Retailers | Difficult to clear high-priced inventory; frequent downward revisions |
Demand side: Consumer shift to alternatives
Many consumers who switched to alternative edible oils such as sunflower, soybean and blended oils during the period of high coconut oil prices have been slow to return, according to Devraj. Consumers have become accustomed to these oils, which also remain cheaper than coconut oil.
Industry sources pointed to falling raw coconut prices as a key factor behind the decline in copra and coconut oil rates. Raw coconuts are currently selling at around ₹42 per kg, supported by higher production in neighbouring Tamil Nadu. Additionally, a temporary slowdown in exports of value-added coconut products due to the ongoing West Asia crisis has increased domestic availability, adding further pressure on prices.
Outlook
The abundant availability from higher production is likely to prevent any significant price escalation, according to COMA President Mahmood. Traders and end-users should watch for continued arrival data from Kerala and Tamil Nadu, as well as any developments in West Asia that could restore export demand for value-added products. The pace at which consumers revert to coconut oil will also be crucial for price recovery.
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