Coffee prices on the ICE exchange fell sharply on Friday, July 10, 2026, with arabica coffee down as much as 8% in volatile trade, according to Reuters. The decline followed the bean's fourth-largest daily price gain on record at the start of the week.
Record Rally and Margin Hike
Market participants said a rush of speculative money hit soft commodities on Monday, tempted by concerns that the El Niño weather pattern will strengthen and lead to increasingly adverse weather in key growing regions. The ICE exchange then raised its margin, or down payment, requirements for coffee and cocoa futures contracts, limiting liquidity and increasing price volatility. "There's a vacuum of liquidity (and) a lot of these speculators are trading the intraday. They are out by (the market) close," said a coffee analyst at a multinational agri-commodities trade house.
Price Movements
At 1536 GMT, ICE arabica coffee futures were down 3.5% at $335.50 per lb, having closed up 12.3% on Thursday. The contracts, which skyrocketed 16% on Monday only to collapse on Tuesday, were still heading for 11% weekly gains. ICE robusta coffee futures fell 5% to $3,842 a metric tonne, but were headed for 3% weekly gains.
| Commodity | Price (July 10, 2026) | Daily Change | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICE arabica coffee | $335.50/lb | -3.5% | +11% |
| ICE robusta coffee | $3,842/mt | -5% | +3% |
| London cocoa | £4,551/mt | -5.2% | +20% |
| New York cocoa | $6,102/mt | -5.5% | +20% |
| Raw sugar | 14.88 cents/lb | -1.6% | Near two-month high on Wednesday |
| White sugar | $465.40/mt | -2.8% | — |
Supply-Side Drivers: El Niño and Weather
The U.S. Climate Prediction Center has forecast an 81% chance of a very strong El Niño during October-December that would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record. Dealers said El Niño-linked excess rains in top grower Brazil had slowed over the past couple of weeks, however.
For cocoa, El Niño is especially worrisome as it disrupts weather patterns in No. 3 grower Ecuador as well as in West Africa, where some 70% of the world's chocolate ingredient is grown. Cocoa futures nearly tripled in 2024 after the West African harvest failed amid an El Niño weather pattern that ran from mid-2023 to mid-2024 and was considered a moderate-to-strong occurrence. Top cocoa grower Ivory Coast's upcoming 2026/27 main crop is expected to drop more than 10% amid excess rains, disease and insufficient crop care, pod counters and exporters based in the country said.
Speculative Activity Dominates Cocoa
London cocoa futures were down 5.2% at £4,551 a tonne but were heading for 20% weekly gains after hitting eight-month highs on Thursday, while New York cocoa futures fell 5.5% to $6,102 a tonne. "Cocoa market appears to be unstoppable this week against a backdrop of poor pod counts and El Niño," said a dealer. He added, however, that the rally has been "dominated by speculative activity".
Other Soft Commodities
In other soft commodities, raw sugar was down 1.6% at 14.88 cents per lb, having hit a near two-month high on Wednesday, while white sugar fell 2.8% to $465.40 a tonne.
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