Indian rice export prices rose for a third straight week, with the 5% broken parboiled variety quoted at $352-$357 per tonne in the week through July 16, up from last week's $348-$352, according to Reuters. The 5% broken white rice was priced at $353-$357. The gains were fueled by a higher reserve price for rice sold under the government's Open Market Sale Scheme (OMSS) and mounting concerns over weak monsoon rains that could delay planting.
Higher OMSS Reserve Price and Monsoon Concerns
"The market had expected lower OMSS reserve prices, but the government's decision to raise them lifted open market prices," a Kolkata-based trader told Reuters. The OMSS is a government mechanism to sell rice from central stocks to moderate prices. Separately, weak monsoon rainfall has slowed summer planting: farmers planted summer-sown rice on 11.5 million hectares as of July 10, down from 12.6 million hectares in the same period last year, according to Reuters.
Supply Side: Bangladesh Floods and Regional Harvests
In Bangladesh, floods have damaged crops on at least 28,610 hectares across 12 districts, with paddy and rice seedbeds among the hardest hit. "The current estimates are preliminary. The full extent of crop losses will become clear as the floodwaters recede," a Department of Agricultural Extension official said, as reported by Reuters. Meanwhile, in Thailand, supply is gradually increasing as the dry-season rice harvest enters the market. However, traders remain cautious over the potential impact of El Niño on production later this year, Reuters reported. In Vietnam, the summer-to-autumn harvest will peak from the end of July through August, a farmer told Reuters.
Demand Side: Philippines Import Suspension Weighs on Thai Rice
On the demand side, buying has been subdued. In Thailand, the 5% broken rice was quoted at $445-$450, down from $450 last week. "Buying has been limited to essential purchases, with the Philippines’ temporary suspension of imports of Thai 5% broken rice further weighing on demand," a Bangkok-based trader said, according to Reuters. Vietnam's 5% broken rice was offered at $445-$450 per metric ton, unchanged from last week, with a Ho Chi Minh City trader noting: "Trading activity is slow as buyers are awaiting rising supplies from an ongoing harvest."
Price Comparison Across Origins
| Origin | Grade | Price Range ($/tonne) | Week-over-Week Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 5% broken parboiled | 352–357 | Up from 348–352 |
| India | 5% broken white | 353–357 | Not specified |
| Thailand | 5% broken | 445–450 | Down from 450 |
| Vietnam | 5% broken | 445–450 | Unchanged |
Outlook and Key Data Releases
Market participants will closely monitor monsoon progress in India and the extent of flood damage in Bangladesh as floodwaters recede. The upcoming peak of Vietnam's summer-to-autumn harvest is expected to increase supply, potentially capping price gains. Traders will also watch for any further policy changes to India's OMSS reserve price and updates on the Philippines' import suspension, which could shift demand patterns across origins.
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