Indian sugar ex-mill prices have cooled 18% after hitting a record Rs 67 per kg last week, with ex-mill rates now down to Rs 55 per kg, according to a Business Today report. Food secretary Sanjeev Chopra attributed the decline to the Centre's recent decision to allow sugar imports and its action against hoarding and speculation, saying the earlier price rise was not due to shortage because the country has sufficient stock.
What pulled ex-mill rates down
Last week, the Centre allowed imports of 1 million tonnes of raw sugar to cool prices. It also imposed stock limits on bulk consumers and directed states to step up inspections to prevent hoarding and speculation, the report said. Chopra said the earlier rally was driven by mills "jacking up" prices.
"Ex-mill price of sugar, which were jacked up by mills, have started cooling down. They have declined to Rs 55 per kg and will further drop in the coming days," Chopra told PTI.
Prakash Naiknavare, managing director of the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories (NFCSF), said ex-mill prices are now Rs 55 per kg or below across the country. He told the publication that "flying squads" have been sent out across the country to check hoarding, and the Centre's action had helped stop the rise in prices, with mill-level rates likely to fall further.
Supply, demand and inventory numbers
Production in the 2025-26 marketing year (October-September) is estimated at 306 lakh tonnes, lower than the earlier estimate of 343 lakh tonnes, according to the Business Today report. Annual domestic demand is around 280-285 lakh tonnes, and the country has enough sugar stocks, Chopra said.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Record ex-mill price (last week) | Rs 67 per kg |
| Current ex-mill price | Rs 55 per kg |
| 2025-26 production estimate | 306 lakh tonnes |
| Earlier production estimate | 343 lakh tonnes |
| Annual domestic demand | 280-285 lakh tonnes |
| Raw sugar import allowance | 1 million tonnes |
| Average wholesale price (Aug 24) | Rs 58.29 per kg |
| Average retail price (Aug 24) | Rs 63.05 per kg |
Wholesale and retail lag
Consumers have yet to see lower prices in wholesale and retail markets. The average wholesale price across India was Rs 58.29 per kg on August 24, while the average retail price was Rs 63.05 per kg, according to consumer affairs ministry data. Naiknavare noted that the usual difference between ex-mill and wholesale prices is Rs 2-3 per kg, while the gap between ex-mill and retail prices is generally Rs 7-8 per kg.
What happens next
Chopra said prices "will further drop in the coming days," and Naiknavare added that rates at the mill level could fall further. With ex-mill at Rs 55, wholesale at Rs 58.29 and retail at Rs 63.05, the spreads remain around the upper end of the typical ranges cited by Naiknavare, and market participants will watch government price data and the progress of the 1-million-tonne import allowance, as reported by Business Today.
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