Turmeric prices in India have surged to record highs amid a hand-to-mouth supply situation and fears that El Nino conditions could damage the crop currently being sown, according to industry stakeholders.
Price Surge and Market Data
According to Ankit Agarwal, director at Erode-based Amar Agarwal Foods India Ltd, turmeric prices surged to ₹210 a kg in Tamil Nadu’s Erode market from ₹160 a kg in 10 days in the futures market, aided by deficient monsoon rain in June. In the physical market, RKV Ravishankar, President of the Erode Turmeric Merchants Association, reported that prices reached ₹200 a kg in the Erode Agricultural Produce Marketing Committee (APMC) yard from ₹160, before pulling back to ₹170. On the NCDEX, the August contract was quoted at ₹20,518 a quintal, while spot prices in Nizamabad ruled at ₹19,989 and in Rajapur at ₹22,070.
| Market / Contract | Price (₹ per kg/quintal) | Change from 10 Days Ago |
|---|---|---|
| Erode futures | ₹210/kg | +₹50/kg |
| Erode APMC spot | ₹170/kg (pulled back) | +₹10/kg from ₹160 |
| NCDEX Aug contract | ₹20,518/quintal | N/A |
| Nizamabad spot | ₹19,989/quintal | N/A |
| Rajapur spot | ₹22,070/quintal | N/A |
Supply Dynamics and Weather Concerns
Ravishankar attributed the rise to “deficient rain and fear of the next crop being affected,” noting that “carryforward stocks we had in the past 3-4 years have declined.” Biplab Sarma, senior research analyst (Team Leader) at AgriWatch, said prices remain supported as “persistent dry weather has raised concerns about crop prospects,” and that “continued dry conditions during the early growth and development stages could adversely affect yields.” Poonam Chand Gupta, a Nizamabad-based trader, added that besides deficient rainfall, there is a “shortage of quality material.”
Despite these concerns, sowing of the spice crop has increased. Gupta said “sowing is up 10 per cent compared with last year.” Sarma noted that AgriWatch’s kharif 2026 first advance estimate projected turmeric acreage increasing by 16.05 per cent year-on-year from 2025, remaining “well above the 5-year average of 1.88 lakh hectares,” primarily “due to higher prices farmers got during the sowing period.” Agarwal estimated this year’s production at 95 lakh bags of 50-kg each. “If export demand is added, we will require 110 lakh bags. There is a carryover of 15-20 lakh bags, which will leave supplies tight in the coming months if El Nino leads to deficient rains,” he said.
Demand and Export Trends
Exports have shown mixed signals. According to Sarma, turmeric exports rose by 26 per cent in May compared with April, and were 0.39 per cent higher than the year-ago period, indicating “a strong sequential recovery while remaining broadly stable on an annual basis.” However, cumulatively, exports during January–May 2026 declined by 6.69 per cent compared with the year-ago period, primarily due to disruptions because of the Iran war. On the domestic front, Ravishankar said “demand is currently slow, which has led prices to pull back,” but added that “demand will begin from August-end.”
Outlook and Key Factors to Watch
Agarwal believes that while prices may “retract a tad now,” they will not return to levels of ₹140-150 a kg until the next crop arrives. Sarma expects turmeric prices to “remain well supported by tight carry-forward stocks, lower market arrivals, and steady domestic demand.” However, he cautioned that “market sentiment will continue to be influenced by the pace of arrivals, export demand, monsoon progress, and the development of the new crop during the early growth stages.” Traders and procurement teams should monitor the monsoon performance and El Nino developments closely, as these will be the key determinants of supply tightness and price direction in the coming months.
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