India's soluble fertiliser industry may see a demand boost this Kharif season from a weak monsoon, but a sharp rise in prices of key inputs—60–100% over the past year—poses a greater threat to consumption, according to the Soluble Fertilizer Association of India (SFAI).
Price Surge and Supply Constraints
SFAI President Rajib Chakraborty told PTI that monoammonium phosphate (MAP), which traded at around $1,000 per tonne in the last couple of years, is now at $1,500–1,600 per tonne—a jump of $600. "An increase of $600 per tonne means it's a big thing," he noted. The price spike is attributed to China's export restrictions and disruptions linked to tensions in West Asia, which have disrupted shipments to India. Importers are exploring alternatives from Russia and the CIS region, but availability from those sources also remains limited. Domestic manufacturing of soluble fertiliser is minimal, leaving little scope to bridge the import shortfall from within the country, Chakraborty added.
Despite the price pressure, the immediate supply situation is not alarming due to a stock carryover from last year, when excess rainfall and flooding in key farming regions led to poor consumption. "So far, I don't see much of a problem," Chakraborty said, but cautioned that a sharp pick-up in demand this season could strain the next round of supplies.
Demand Outlook and Substitution Risk
The biggest risk to the sector, according to Chakraborty, is a potential drop in consumption due to high prices. "The moment it becomes very expensive, farmers stop using it," he said, adding that price control was not possible or within the industry's control. India typically imports about 4 lakh tonnes of soluble fertiliser annually, a figure that has been rising year-on-year. Total imports this fiscal are estimated at 2–2.5 lakh tonnes, with about 1 lakh tonne landed till June. The bulk of consumption occurs between September and March.
High prices are already pushing farmers towards cheaper substitutes. Many are turning to phosphatic alternatives such as single superphosphate (SSP), which has a lower phosphorus content of 20–22% compared to MAP's 61% but costs significantly less. A shift back to conventional fertilisers like urea and diammonium phosphate (DAP) would also push up the government's subsidy bill, Chakraborty pointed out.
| Fertiliser | Phosphorus Content | Current Price (per tonne) |
|---|---|---|
| MAP (soluble) | 61% | $1,500–1,600 |
| SSP | 20–22% | Significantly lower (not specified) |
Monsoon Impact and Market Outlook
Paradoxically, patchy rainfall this season could support demand for water-soluble products, as they use far less water than conventional fertigation. Crops such as cotton, which typically receive two soluble-fertiliser sprays per season, could see higher use if dry conditions persist. "If there is no rain, there will be yellow leaves. So, they will tend to use more," Chakraborty said, adding that adoption of speciality fertilisers tends to rise during periods of agricultural stress.
Consignments have started arriving at Indian ports, and prices, currently believed to be at their peak, could ease once these supplies are distributed through the market, he noted. The southwest monsoon has covered the entire country, but the active spell has ended. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned that below-normal rainfall is likely from mid-July onward, which could further influence both crop stress and fertiliser demand patterns in the coming months.
For commodity traders and procurement teams, the key variables to watch are the pace of port arrivals, any easing in MAP prices, and the progression of the monsoon. A sustained dry spell could lift soluble fertiliser uptake, but the price-sensitive Indian farmer may continue to switch to cheaper alternatives, potentially reshaping the import mix for the rest of the fiscal year.
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