India's kharif sowing area has reached 92 per cent of the season's normal expanse, with the gap from a year ago narrowing to below 1 per cent as of August 14, a supply-side development that underpins the government's view that El Nino will not significantly dent this year's crop output, according to The Hindu BusinessLine.
Government expects limited El Nino impact
Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said the impact on kharif production this year is unlikely to be significant, as the gap in sown area continues to narrow despite deficient rainfall in a few pockets, the report said. Speaking after an event organised by the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR), Chouhan said kharif crops had received adequate rainfall for growth in most parts of the country, bringing down the number of vulnerable districts from 262 to around 100.
We don't see a huge impact of El Nino, except in some places. The situation by and large remains good. Rainfall was sufficient to meet the full water needs of the crops.
Chouhan added that the situation still needs to be reviewed as it is changing daily, according to The Hindu BusinessLine. As of now, no impact is foreseen, though Karnataka and Telangana are facing water shortages. The overall sowing has been good, but the Minister did not rule out localised impact on lower yield.
Sowing area narrows year-on-year deficit
The sowing area under all kharif crops has reached 92 per cent of the season's normal area of 1104.46 lakh hectares (lh), while the deficit from the year-ago level has narrowed to less than 1 per cent until August 14 from 1.8 per cent until August 7, according to The Hindu BusinessLine. The area sown in the ongoing season reached 1,016.57 lh as of August 14, compared with 1,037.52 lh in the year-ago period.
| Indicator | Value | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Kharif sowing area | 1,016.57 lakh hectares (92% of normal) | As of Aug 14 |
| Year-ago sowing area | 1,037.52 lakh hectares | As of Aug 14 |
| Sowing deficit vs year ago | <1% (was 1.8% on Aug 7) | Aug 14 |
| Monsoon rainfall vs normal | 13% below normal | Jun 1–Aug 18 |
| Districts with 20%+ rainfall deficit | 361 of 741 | IMD data |
| Vulnerable districts | Reduced from 262 to ~100 | Government estimate |
Monsoon deficit and El Nino forecasts
Monsoon rainfall, which was 35 per cent deficient in June (as per revised data) and 1 per cent surplus in July, has shrunk to 13 per cent below normal during June 1-August 18, according to India Meteorological Department (IMD) data cited by The Hindu BusinessLine. Rainfall during August 1-18 was 13 per cent below normal. A total of 361 out of 741 districts have reported rainfall deficit of 20 per cent or higher.
The current regional wet spell is likely to fade by end-August as the influence of drought-inducing El Nino strengthens, according to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). India may already have seen the best of this year's monsoon, with withdrawal expected to begin from North-West India around mid-September, the European weather agency's outlook said.
Private weather forecaster Skymet has downgraded its outlook for the South-West monsoon to 85 per cent of the long-period average. On August 17, it predicted a 70 per cent chance of drought and said the all-India monsoon deficit is expected to widen through September.
Policy agenda and 'Shakti ki Saptdhara'
Chouhan reiterated that both the Seeds Bill and the Pesticides Management Bill were ready and would be tabled in Parliament in the next session, though the government did not list these Bills for daily business in previous sessions despite repeated announcements, the report noted.
The Minister also administered a pledge to officials of the Agriculture and Rural Development Ministries under the 'Shakti ki Saptdhara' (Seven streams of empowerment) framework announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his Independence Day address. The seven-pronged framework prioritises strengthening agriculture and food production, expanding food processing and improving farmers' access to global markets, according to The Hindu BusinessLine.
Chouhan said the roadmap for the two Ministries to achieve the government's 'Viksit Bharat' vision for 2047 had been discussed with stakeholders and will be finalised soon. He admitted that getting the roadmap implemented is a larger challenge, one he is struggling with in his own constituency after ICAR prepared a plan for four districts under the Vidisha parliamentary constituency.
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