China is turning green shipping fuel projects into production far faster than Europe, with three operational Chinese plants already producing ten times the combined output of six running European sites, according to a new analysis from campaign group Transport & Environment (T&E).
European Project Pipeline Lags in Final Investment Decisions
T&E identified 69 European hydrogen and e-fuel projects that could supply shipping, with a potential output of 4.09 million tonnes of oil equivalent by 2033. That would cover around 14% of European shipping’s fuel demand. However, most of that capacity remains on paper. Around 80% of the European projects have yet to reach a final investment decision, while just seven have moved beyond that point and only six are operational.
Only 13 projects, representing 7% of the projected output, are primarily aimed at shipping. Spain has the largest pipeline at 1.58 million tonnes of oil equivalent, followed by Finland, Denmark, and France.
China’s Smaller Pipeline Moves Ahead Faster
China has a smaller pipeline of 15 projects with potential output of 1.72 million tonnes of oil equivalent by 2029, but all have progressed beyond the planning stage. According to T&E, three are operating, ten are under construction, and two have passed final investment decision. Notably, eleven are primarily targeting maritime customers.
| Metric | Europe | China |
|---|---|---|
| Number of projects | 69 | 15 |
| Potential output (by 2029/2033) | 4.09m toe (2033) | 1.72m toe (2029) |
| Share of projects past planning | ~20% (7 beyond FID, 6 operational) | 100% (3 op, 10 const, 2 FID) |
| Projects primarily for shipping | 13 (7% of output) | 11 |
Fuel Types: E-Ammonia and E-Methanol
E-ammonia accounts for around 950,000 tonnes of oil equivalent of China’s projected output, followed by 550,000 tonnes of e-methanol. Europe’s pipeline is more evenly divided, with 1.63 million tonnes of e-ammonia and 1.57 million tonnes of e-methanol.
Shipping Companies Secure Supply Deals with Chinese Producers
T&E warned that European shipowners could become increasingly reliant on imported fuels if domestic production fails to scale. That shift is already visible in shipping’s fuel procurement. CMB.TECH has secured 158,000 tonnes a year of green ammonia from China Energy Engineering Corporation as it prepares to bring 11 ammonia-powered ships into service. Hapag-Lloyd has contracted 250,000 tonnes of green methanol annually from China’s Goldwind, while Maersk has a separate 500,000-tonne supply deal with the same producer.
T&E said Europe needed stronger financial support and clearer demand signals to stop more projects stalling before construction. The group’s analysis underscores that China’s first-mover advantage in green shipping fuels is not just a pipeline promise but operational reality, with European buyers already turning to Chinese suppliers for assured volumes.
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