Crude oil futures surged more than 4% on Monday, July 13, 2026, after the United States and Iran exchanged military strikes over the weekend, prompting Iran to announce the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime corridor for global oil shipments. According to The Hindu Business Line, the escalation has renewed concerns over oil supply tightness through the third quarter.
Price Movements
At 9.35 am Indian time, September Brent oil futures on the Intercontinental Exchange stood at $79.13 per barrel, up 4.10% from the previous close, reported The Hindu Business Line. August crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (WTI) were at $74.35 per barrel, up 4.12%. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), July crude oil futures traded at ₹7,129, up 4.62% from ₹6,814, while August futures reached ₹7,144, up 4.47% from ₹6,838.
| Contract | Exchange | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| September Brent | ICE | $79.13/bbl | +$3.12 | +4.10% |
| August WTI | NYMEX | $74.35/bbl | +$2.94 | +4.12% |
| July Crude Oil | MCX | ₹7,129 | +₹315 | +4.62% |
| August Crude Oil | MCX | ₹7,144 | +₹306 | +4.47% |
Supply Disruption and Escalation
The price spike was driven by a sharp escalation in US-Iran hostilities. In a post on X, MB Qalibaf, speaker of Iran's parliament, declared: “The era of one-sided deals is OVER. We told you: keep your word or pay the price. Reality is knocking.” According to a statement from US Central Command, it completed a new wave of offensive strikes against Iran on July 12, hitting dozens of targets with precision munitions. These included Iranian military air-defence systems, coastal radar sites, missile and drone capabilities, and small boats. The US used fighter aircraft, naval vessels, one-way attack aerial drones, and, for the first time, one-way attack sea drones.
While the Strait of Hormuz is not controlled by Iran, US Central Command emphasized that US forces are “postured and prepared to ensure that freedom of navigation remains available to commercial shipping.” However, in their Commodities Feed for Monday, Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Strategy at ING Think, and Ewa Manthey, Commodities Strategist, noted that “Iran claims that the Strait of Hormuz is shut until further notice. The US pushed back, saying that it will ensure freedom of navigation. Escalation has slowed vessels transiting the strait to a trickle, renewing concerns over oil supply tightness through the third quarter.” They warned that the risk remains that conflict could escalate to levels seen earlier in the war, with neighbouring countries and energy infrastructure targeted.
Demand Outlook and IEA Projections
On the demand side, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its latest monthly oil market report on Friday, July 10. The IEA expects oil demand to gradually recover over the course of the year. According to the report, demand in the second quarter of 2026 was down 4.8 million barrels per day year-on-year. It is expected to ease to a 1.7 million bpd year-on-year reduction in the third quarter of 2026, before returning to 1.2 million bpd year-on-year growth in the final quarter. However, the agency noted that “much will depend on how rising tensions between the US and Iran play out.” The IEA estimated that global oil supply increased by 4.1 million bpd in June, and global oil inventories rose by 21 million barrels in June, the first increase in four months.
For commodity traders and procurement teams, the immediate risk is a prolonged disruption to Strait of Hormuz flows, which could quickly erode the inventory buffer built in June. With third-quarter demand contraction moderating and fourth-quarter growth expected, any sustained supply loss would tighten the market significantly, keeping upward pressure on prices.
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